Modelling and assessing dynamic energy supply resilience to disruption events: An oil supply disruption case in China

Abstract

Energy supply disruptions can have unpredictable and significant economic impacts, making supply resilience a critical concern for policymakers. Assessing and improving supply resilience have become necessary to make energy policies more effective. This study aimed to develop a model for resilience assessment and enhancement. First, we created a Mixed-Supply-side Dynamic Inoperability Input–output Model (M-SDIIM), which could calculate sectors' dynamic inoperability and economic losses under import or production disruptions. Second, a dynamic supply resilience curve was established using M-SDIIM, and the calculating method for robustness and recoverability was used to visualise the resilience characteristics. Finally, given the practical significance of oil security, we incorporated the strategic stock strategy into M-SDIIM to construct a resilience enhancement model. Using the developed model, we conducted a case study of China's oil supply disruption. The results demonstrated that M-SDIIM effectively assessed the energy supply resilience of interdependent infrastructure. In an extremely large oil disruption event, the resilience curves of all sectors in China showed a typical U-shape; however, significant differences were apparent in the robustness and recoverability of the sectors, with six sectors, including Petroleum processing, Transport and Chemical products, among the most vulnerable. Second, the resilience enhancement model enabled a quantitative assessment of strategies, providing a clear improvement target. In China, more than the current stock levels are needed; at least 73-day crude oil imports are required. Thus, we propose targeted policy recommendations to assist countries in formulating energy policies.