Geographical Bayesian second stage analysis for operating efficiency of Brazilian electricity distribution system operators

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-17 DOI:10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108371

Marcelo Azevedo Costa , Aline Veronese da Silva , Leandro Brioschi Mineti

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Abstract

Since 2011, the Brazilian electricity regulator has applied data envelopment analysis to estimate regulatory operating costs for distribution and transmission companies. Despite the availability of environmental or contextual variables, second-stage analysis has been avoided, primarily due to inconsistent statistical results, including estimated coefficients contrary to technical evidence and significant changes in operating efficiencies for selected companies. Previous studies have shown that environmental adjustments are critical for companies’ revenues operating in harsh environments in Brazil. Additionally, climate changes are affecting expenses with varying effects nationwide. To tackle this challenge, a second-stage model in which changes in efficiencies are also affected by geographical location of companies is proposed. Coefficient constraints and multiple environmental variables are applied to estimate regulatory efficiencies of Brazilian Distributor System Operators for upcoming years. Results indicate maximum efficiency changes of +5.35% and an increase of 1.1% in the total regulatory OPEX if the proposed second stage is applied.

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来源期刊

Energy Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

18.60

自引率

12.50%

发文量

524

期刊介绍： Energy Economics is a field journal that focuses on energy economics and energy finance. It covers various themes including the exploitation, conversion, and use of energy, markets for energy commodities and derivatives, regulation and taxation, forecasting, environment and climate, international trade, development, and monetary policy. The journal welcomes contributions that utilize diverse methods such as experiments, surveys, econometrics, decomposition, simulation models, equilibrium models, optimization models, and analytical models. It publishes a combination of papers employing different methods to explore a wide range of topics. The journal's replication policy encourages the submission of replication studies, wherein researchers reproduce and extend the key results of original studies while explaining any differences. Energy Economics is indexed and abstracted in several databases including Environmental Abstracts, Fuel and Energy Abstracts, Social Sciences Citation Index, GEOBASE, Social & Behavioral Sciences, Journal of Economic Literature, INSPEC, and more.