Greening urban areas in line with population density and ecological zone can reduce premature mortality

IF 8.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-11-02 DOI:10.1038/s43247-024-01803-y
Michael D. Garber, Tarik Benmarhnia, Weiqi Zhou, Pierpaolo Mudu, David Rojas-Rueda
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Abstract

Urban green space and urban compactness are each important principles for designing healthy, climate-resilient cities. The principles can co-exist, but greening may come at density’s expense if not considered deliberately. Existing studies estimating health impacts of greening scenarios have not considered what level of greenness is attainable for different population densities. Here, using the square kilometer as the unit of analysis, we estimate non-accidental mortality that could be prevented among adults older than 30 by greening that small area to a level of greenness assumed to be attainable based on its broader urban area (N = 15,917 globally), population density, and ecological zone. Results suggest a large potential for urban greening even in the most population-dense parts of cities such that on average 54 deaths per 100,000 could be prevented per year in those areas. That estimate may be about 25% higher or lower due to uncertainty in the underlying model. Greening urban areas to attainable levels for their population density and ecological zone could decrease nonaccidental mortality by about 50 deaths per year per 100,000 adults older than 30, according to epidemiologic analyses from 15,917 urban areas.

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根据人口密度和生态区绿化城市地区可降低过早死亡率
城市绿地和城市密集度都是设计健康、气候适应性强的城市的重要原则。这两项原则可以共存,但如果不刻意考虑,绿化可能会以牺牲密度为代价。现有研究在估算绿化方案对健康的影响时,并未考虑不同人口密度下可达到的绿化水平。在此,我们以平方公里为分析单位,根据其更广泛的城市面积(N = 15,917 全球)、人口密度和生态区域,估算了将这一小片区域绿化到假定可达到的绿化水平,可预防的 30 岁以上成年人非事故死亡率。结果表明,即使在城市人口最密集的地区,城市绿化也有很大的潜力,在这些地区,平均每年每 10 万人可避免 54 例死亡。由于基础模型的不确定性,这一估计值可能高出或低出 25%。根据对 15,917 个城市地区的流行病学分析,将城市地区绿化到其人口密度和生态区域可达到的水平,可使每 10 万名 30 岁以上的成年人每年非意外死亡人数减少约 50 人。
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来源期刊
Communications Earth & Environment
Communications Earth & Environment Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences
CiteScore
8.60
自引率
2.50%
发文量
269
审稿时长
26 weeks
期刊介绍: Communications Earth & Environment is an open access journal from Nature Portfolio publishing high-quality research, reviews and commentary in all areas of the Earth, environmental and planetary sciences. Research papers published by the journal represent significant advances that bring new insight to a specialized area in Earth science, planetary science or environmental science. Communications Earth & Environment has a 2-year impact factor of 7.9 (2022 Journal Citation Reports®). Articles published in the journal in 2022 were downloaded 1,412,858 times. Median time from submission to the first editorial decision is 8 days.
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