Pub Date : 2024-09-16DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01659-2
Elsa Giraudat, Arnaud Burtin, Arthur Le Ber, Mathias Fink, Jean-Christophe Komorowski, Alexandre Aubry
Volcanic eruptions necessitate precise monitoring of magma pressure and inflation for improved forecasting. Understanding deep magma storage is crucial for hazard assessment, yet imaging these systems is challenging due to complex heterogeneities that disrupt standard seismic migration techniques. Here we map the magmatic and hydrothermal system of the La Soufrière volcano in Guadeloupe by analyzing seismic noise data from a sparse geophone array under a matrix formalism. Seismic noise interferometry provides a reflection matrix containing the signature of echoes from deep heterogeneities. Using wave correlations resistant to disorder, matrix imaging successfully unscrambles wave distortions, revealing La Soufrière’s internal structure down to 10 km with 100 m resolution. This method surpasses the diffraction limit imposed by geophone array aperture, providing crucial data for modeling and high-resolution monitoring. We see matrix imaging as a revolutionary tool for understanding volcanic systems and enhancing observatories’ abilities to monitor dynamics and forecast eruptions. A matrix approach for seismic imaging reveals the plumbing system of La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe. Seismic noise correlations yield a reflection matrix whose physics-based post-processing allows an optimized focusing through volcano heterogeneities.
{"title":"Matrix imaging as a tool for high-resolution monitoring of deep volcanic plumbing systems with seismic noise","authors":"Elsa Giraudat, Arnaud Burtin, Arthur Le Ber, Mathias Fink, Jean-Christophe Komorowski, Alexandre Aubry","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01659-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01659-2","url":null,"abstract":"Volcanic eruptions necessitate precise monitoring of magma pressure and inflation for improved forecasting. Understanding deep magma storage is crucial for hazard assessment, yet imaging these systems is challenging due to complex heterogeneities that disrupt standard seismic migration techniques. Here we map the magmatic and hydrothermal system of the La Soufrière volcano in Guadeloupe by analyzing seismic noise data from a sparse geophone array under a matrix formalism. Seismic noise interferometry provides a reflection matrix containing the signature of echoes from deep heterogeneities. Using wave correlations resistant to disorder, matrix imaging successfully unscrambles wave distortions, revealing La Soufrière’s internal structure down to 10 km with 100 m resolution. This method surpasses the diffraction limit imposed by geophone array aperture, providing crucial data for modeling and high-resolution monitoring. We see matrix imaging as a revolutionary tool for understanding volcanic systems and enhancing observatories’ abilities to monitor dynamics and forecast eruptions. A matrix approach for seismic imaging reveals the plumbing system of La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe. Seismic noise correlations yield a reflection matrix whose physics-based post-processing allows an optimized focusing through volcano heterogeneities.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01659-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142234034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-16DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01581-7
Vincent Strak, Kai Xue, Wouter P. Schellart
Subduction-induced mantle flow has a considerable geodynamic impact on Earth. It can deflect mantle plumes, transport geochemical signatures and produce upwellings that generate atypical intraplate volcanism. The mantle flow produced by slab rollover subduction, however, remains unstudied, yet it may have a comparable geodynamic significance. Here, we present analogue models of buoyancy-driven subduction in which we image, using a state-of-the-art Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) technique, the three-dimensional mantle flow induced by two contrasting subduction styles: slab rollback (trench retreat) and slab rollover (trench advance). Our model results show that the advancing subduction mode develops a slab rollover geometry that generates a large-scale upwelling in a broad mantle wedge domain. Based on a comparison between the location of this upwelling and Cenozoic volcanics in Tibet, we propose that slab rollover subduction of the Tethyan and Indian slabs generated a comparably broad mantle upwelling, which drove widespread Cenozoic volcanism in Tibet. Intraplate volcanism inboard of subduction and collision zones, such as in Tibet during the Cenozoic, could be produced by reversed toroidal mantle flow and long-lived upwelling in subduction rollover settings, according to analogue subduction models.
{"title":"Mantle upwelling induced by slab rollover subduction could explain widespread intraplate volcanism in Tibet","authors":"Vincent Strak, Kai Xue, Wouter P. Schellart","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01581-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01581-7","url":null,"abstract":"Subduction-induced mantle flow has a considerable geodynamic impact on Earth. It can deflect mantle plumes, transport geochemical signatures and produce upwellings that generate atypical intraplate volcanism. The mantle flow produced by slab rollover subduction, however, remains unstudied, yet it may have a comparable geodynamic significance. Here, we present analogue models of buoyancy-driven subduction in which we image, using a state-of-the-art Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) technique, the three-dimensional mantle flow induced by two contrasting subduction styles: slab rollback (trench retreat) and slab rollover (trench advance). Our model results show that the advancing subduction mode develops a slab rollover geometry that generates a large-scale upwelling in a broad mantle wedge domain. Based on a comparison between the location of this upwelling and Cenozoic volcanics in Tibet, we propose that slab rollover subduction of the Tethyan and Indian slabs generated a comparably broad mantle upwelling, which drove widespread Cenozoic volcanism in Tibet. Intraplate volcanism inboard of subduction and collision zones, such as in Tibet during the Cenozoic, could be produced by reversed toroidal mantle flow and long-lived upwelling in subduction rollover settings, according to analogue subduction models.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01581-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142234041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-16DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01681-4
Hao Chen, Serife Elif Can Sener, Cole Van Emburg, Miles Jones, Taylor Bogucki, Nicolas Bonilla, Muzan Williams Ijeoma, Heng Wan, Michael Carbajales-Dale
{"title":"Author Correction: Electric light-duty vehicles have decarbonization potential but may not reduce other environmental problems","authors":"Hao Chen, Serife Elif Can Sener, Cole Van Emburg, Miles Jones, Taylor Bogucki, Nicolas Bonilla, Muzan Williams Ijeoma, Heng Wan, Michael Carbajales-Dale","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01681-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01681-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01681-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142234033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-15DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01669-0
Katie Jo Black, Jeremy G. Weber
Some communities endure environmental hazards from abandoned mines and job loss from the energy transition away from coal. Recent US legislation provides a historic appropriation for abandoned mine hazards like the acidic water that often drains from them. Who the investment will benefit and what it will accomplish is unclear. Here we provide answers for the case of abandoned mine drainage in Pennsylvania. We find that communities most exposed to mine drainage have incomes 30 percent below that of unaffected communities and are twice as vulnerable to the energy transition. Within affected communities, exposure is associated with a greater urban, non-white, renter population. Analytical modeling using data from past treatment efforts shows that they have been relatively cost effective, protecting streams for about $5700 per kilometer per year. Federal appropriations for Pennsylvania could address all impaired streams for 25 years but would leave insufficient funding for other abandoned mine hazards. In Pennsylvania, incomes are lower in communities with streams damaged by abandoned mine drainage, but these streams could be protected cost-effectively, according to an analysis combining demographic, economic, hydrological, and cost data.
{"title":"Treating abandoned mine drainage can protect streams cost effectively and benefit vulnerable communities","authors":"Katie Jo Black, Jeremy G. Weber","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01669-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01669-0","url":null,"abstract":"Some communities endure environmental hazards from abandoned mines and job loss from the energy transition away from coal. Recent US legislation provides a historic appropriation for abandoned mine hazards like the acidic water that often drains from them. Who the investment will benefit and what it will accomplish is unclear. Here we provide answers for the case of abandoned mine drainage in Pennsylvania. We find that communities most exposed to mine drainage have incomes 30 percent below that of unaffected communities and are twice as vulnerable to the energy transition. Within affected communities, exposure is associated with a greater urban, non-white, renter population. Analytical modeling using data from past treatment efforts shows that they have been relatively cost effective, protecting streams for about $5700 per kilometer per year. Federal appropriations for Pennsylvania could address all impaired streams for 25 years but would leave insufficient funding for other abandoned mine hazards. In Pennsylvania, incomes are lower in communities with streams damaged by abandoned mine drainage, but these streams could be protected cost-effectively, according to an analysis combining demographic, economic, hydrological, and cost data.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01669-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142234038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Anthropogenic perturbations profoundly affect aquatic ecosystem microbiomes and associated ecological functions. Comparatively, the effects of geological stresses on microbiome composition and stability remain poorly explored. Here, we monitored the archaeal, bacterial and microeukaryotes community structure over an 8-years period in Lake Dziani Dzaha (Comoros archipelago), that experienced a major earthquake swarm mid-survey, providing a rare opportunity to investigate the aftermaths of seismo-volcanic events on microbiome. Our results revealed the sensitivity of the aquatic microbial community towards seismicity and associated environmental changes, that triggered a major shift in microbiome composition and abundance with persisting consequences on structure and richness of the microbial ecosystem. Our findings suggest that seismological perturbations could be major drivers of the microbial community structure in aquatic environments through cascading effects on environmental conditions. Over geological time scales, such events may have been significant yet underestimated forces driving diversification and evolution of microbial communities. An 8-year-long observational study of Lake Dziani Dzaha in Mayotte, an analog for the Proterozoic ocean, suggests seismo-volcanic events can perturb geochemical variables and trigger shifts in the composition and structure of the microbiome.
{"title":"Seismic events as potential drivers of the microbial community structure and evolution in a paleo-ocean analog","authors":"Adrien Vigneron, Lilian A. Cloarec, Hélène Agogué, Cécile Bernard, Sébastien Duperron, Christophe Leboulanger, Claire Carré, Patrice Got, Cécile Roques, Marc Troussellier, Didier Jézéquel, Alexis Groleau, Magali Ader, Philipe M. Oger, Mylène Hugoni","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01615-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01615-0","url":null,"abstract":"Anthropogenic perturbations profoundly affect aquatic ecosystem microbiomes and associated ecological functions. Comparatively, the effects of geological stresses on microbiome composition and stability remain poorly explored. Here, we monitored the archaeal, bacterial and microeukaryotes community structure over an 8-years period in Lake Dziani Dzaha (Comoros archipelago), that experienced a major earthquake swarm mid-survey, providing a rare opportunity to investigate the aftermaths of seismo-volcanic events on microbiome. Our results revealed the sensitivity of the aquatic microbial community towards seismicity and associated environmental changes, that triggered a major shift in microbiome composition and abundance with persisting consequences on structure and richness of the microbial ecosystem. Our findings suggest that seismological perturbations could be major drivers of the microbial community structure in aquatic environments through cascading effects on environmental conditions. Over geological time scales, such events may have been significant yet underestimated forces driving diversification and evolution of microbial communities. An 8-year-long observational study of Lake Dziani Dzaha in Mayotte, an analog for the Proterozoic ocean, suggests seismo-volcanic events can perturb geochemical variables and trigger shifts in the composition and structure of the microbiome.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01615-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142174385","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-13DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01665-4
Ana Astort, Elisa Trasatti, Luca Caricchi, Marco Polcari, Prospero De Martino, Valerio Acocella, Mauro A. Di Vito
Understanding and managing unrest at a volcano include i) ascertaining the magmatic distribution and migration, and ii) tracking the evolution of the shallow plumbing system. Here we use multi-technique geodetic data, mechanical models, and petrological simulations to define both aspects for the ongoing (2005-present) unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy. Results show a deformation source exhibiting progressive widening and shallowing, from 5.9 to 3.9 kilometres. Concurrently, a deeper tabular source at 8 km depth experiences limited but constant deflation. Petrological calculations explain inflation of the shallower source resulting from the rise of 0.06 to 0.22 cubic kilometres of magma from depth ≥8 kilometres. Our analysis provides strong evidence that magma ascent to depths shallower than 8 kilometres is the ultimate driver behind the ongoing unrest. This merging of geodetic and petrological approaches to track the evolution of a plumbing system better constrains magma ascent at volcanoes experiencing unrest. The unrest and surface deformation observed at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) between 2007 and 2023 are driven by magma ascent to depths shallower than eight kilometers, according to combined geodetic and petrologic simulations.
{"title":"Tracking the 2007–2023 magma-driven unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)","authors":"Ana Astort, Elisa Trasatti, Luca Caricchi, Marco Polcari, Prospero De Martino, Valerio Acocella, Mauro A. Di Vito","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01665-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01665-4","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding and managing unrest at a volcano include i) ascertaining the magmatic distribution and migration, and ii) tracking the evolution of the shallow plumbing system. Here we use multi-technique geodetic data, mechanical models, and petrological simulations to define both aspects for the ongoing (2005-present) unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy. Results show a deformation source exhibiting progressive widening and shallowing, from 5.9 to 3.9 kilometres. Concurrently, a deeper tabular source at 8 km depth experiences limited but constant deflation. Petrological calculations explain inflation of the shallower source resulting from the rise of 0.06 to 0.22 cubic kilometres of magma from depth ≥8 kilometres. Our analysis provides strong evidence that magma ascent to depths shallower than 8 kilometres is the ultimate driver behind the ongoing unrest. This merging of geodetic and petrological approaches to track the evolution of a plumbing system better constrains magma ascent at volcanoes experiencing unrest. The unrest and surface deformation observed at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) between 2007 and 2023 are driven by magma ascent to depths shallower than eight kilometers, according to combined geodetic and petrologic simulations.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01665-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142174414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-13DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01662-7
Paraskevi Mara, David Beaudoin, Ivano Aiello, Yuki Morono, David Geller-McGrath, Virginia P. Edgcomb, Andreas Teske
Environmental factors shape subsurface microbial ecosystems, and well-characterized sites are ideal for determining how environmental parameters shape sediment communities. Sediments from eight geologically and thermally distinct sites were drilled during International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 385 in Guaymas Basin, an expedition focused on the hydrothermal deep biosphere. Using high-throughput 16S ribosomal nucleic acid sequencing, cell counts, phylogenetics, metatranscriptomics, and mineralogical/elemental X-ray spectroscopy, we examine linkages and feedbacks between mineral composition, temperature, geochemistry, and microbial populations. We show subsurface life is dominated by heterotrophic, cosmopolitan prokaryotes that thrive within a range of sediments and temperature conditions across Guaymas Basin. Hydrothermally-affiliated lineages are detected in low numbers at sites with steepest temperature gradients, within communities of mesophilic taxa that occur throughout Guaymas Basin and in other marine subsurface habitats. Thus, hydrothermal lineages do not replace the cosmopolitan, mesophilic subsurface community, but remain specific to sites where volcanic intrusions drive hydrothermal circulation. “Subsurface bacteria and archaea in the Guaymas Basin, Gulf of California, thrive within a wide range of sediments and temperature conditions, according to geobiological, geochemical, and mineralogical studies on microbial populations and sediment samples.”
环境因素影响着地下微生物生态系统，而特征明显的地点是确定环境参数如何影响沉积物群落的理想场所。国际大洋发现计划 385 号考察队在瓜伊马斯盆地进行了一次以热液深层生物圈为重点的考察，期间钻取了八个地质和温度不同地点的沉积物。利用高通量 16S 核糖体核酸测序、细胞计数、系统发生学、元转录组学和矿物学/元素 X 射线光谱学，我们研究了矿物成分、温度、地球化学和微生物种群之间的联系和反馈。我们的研究表明，地表下的生命主要由异养、世界性原核生物组成，它们在瓜伊马斯盆地的各种沉积物和温度条件下繁衍生息。在温度梯度最陡峭的地点，在整个瓜伊马斯盆地和其他海洋次表层栖息地的中嗜热类群群落中，检测到的热液系数量较少。因此，热液菌系并没有取代世界性的嗜中性次表层群落，而仍然是火山侵入推动热液循环的地点所特有的。"根据对微生物种群和沉积物样本进行的地球生物学、地球化学和矿物学研究，加利福尼亚湾瓜伊马斯盆地的地下细菌和古细菌在广泛的沉积物和温度条件下茁壮成长"。
{"title":"Deep subseafloor sediments in Guaymas Basin harbor cosmopolitan microbiota and traces of hydrothermal populations","authors":"Paraskevi Mara, David Beaudoin, Ivano Aiello, Yuki Morono, David Geller-McGrath, Virginia P. Edgcomb, Andreas Teske","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01662-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01662-7","url":null,"abstract":"Environmental factors shape subsurface microbial ecosystems, and well-characterized sites are ideal for determining how environmental parameters shape sediment communities. Sediments from eight geologically and thermally distinct sites were drilled during International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 385 in Guaymas Basin, an expedition focused on the hydrothermal deep biosphere. Using high-throughput 16S ribosomal nucleic acid sequencing, cell counts, phylogenetics, metatranscriptomics, and mineralogical/elemental X-ray spectroscopy, we examine linkages and feedbacks between mineral composition, temperature, geochemistry, and microbial populations. We show subsurface life is dominated by heterotrophic, cosmopolitan prokaryotes that thrive within a range of sediments and temperature conditions across Guaymas Basin. Hydrothermally-affiliated lineages are detected in low numbers at sites with steepest temperature gradients, within communities of mesophilic taxa that occur throughout Guaymas Basin and in other marine subsurface habitats. Thus, hydrothermal lineages do not replace the cosmopolitan, mesophilic subsurface community, but remain specific to sites where volcanic intrusions drive hydrothermal circulation. “Subsurface bacteria and archaea in the Guaymas Basin, Gulf of California, thrive within a wide range of sediments and temperature conditions, according to geobiological, geochemical, and mineralogical studies on microbial populations and sediment samples.”","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01662-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142174408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lithium is key for a clean energy transition but faces sustainability challenges in the global supply. Here, we use a bottom-up approach to study the evolution of the global lithium-ion battery industry from 2023 to 2050. The supply and demand trends are predicted to determine the supply potential and allocation structure of primary and secondary lithium. The results indicate a projected global lithium demand of 1.93 million metric tons in 2050, a significant increase of 26.2 times compared to 2023. In the process of global lithium resources shifting from underground reserves to in-use stocks, population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) influence regions’ lithium endowment and per capita primary consumption, respectively. If the European Union’s new battery regulation is implemented globally, then it is projected to reduce global primary lithium consumption by 1.03 million metric tons by 2050, with a 53.48% decrease in the proportion of primary lithium consumption. The global demand for lithium is projected to reach 1.93 million metric tons in 2050 compared to the demand in 2023, but the global implementation of recycling policies has the potential to reduce its consumption, as suggested by a bottom-up framework studying the projections of the global supply and demand of lithium for the next decades.
{"title":"Impact of circular economy on the long-term allocation structure of primary and secondary lithium","authors":"Yufeng Wu, Qingbin Yuan, Ming Yang, Mengyu Zhai, Guangwen Hu, Yifan Gu","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01667-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01667-2","url":null,"abstract":"Lithium is key for a clean energy transition but faces sustainability challenges in the global supply. Here, we use a bottom-up approach to study the evolution of the global lithium-ion battery industry from 2023 to 2050. The supply and demand trends are predicted to determine the supply potential and allocation structure of primary and secondary lithium. The results indicate a projected global lithium demand of 1.93 million metric tons in 2050, a significant increase of 26.2 times compared to 2023. In the process of global lithium resources shifting from underground reserves to in-use stocks, population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) influence regions’ lithium endowment and per capita primary consumption, respectively. If the European Union’s new battery regulation is implemented globally, then it is projected to reduce global primary lithium consumption by 1.03 million metric tons by 2050, with a 53.48% decrease in the proportion of primary lithium consumption. The global demand for lithium is projected to reach 1.93 million metric tons in 2050 compared to the demand in 2023, but the global implementation of recycling policies has the potential to reduce its consumption, as suggested by a bottom-up framework studying the projections of the global supply and demand of lithium for the next decades.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01667-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142174412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-12DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01661-8
Seth Wynes, Steven J. Davis, Mitchell Dickau, Susan Ly, Edward Maibach, Joeri Rogelj, Kirsten Zickfeld, H. Damon Matthews
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employs emission scenarios to explore a range of future climate outcomes but refrains from assigning probabilities to individual scenarios. However, IPCC authors have their own views on the likelihood of different climate outcomes, which are valuable to understand because authors possess both expert insight and considerable influence. Here we report the results of a survey of 211 IPCC authors about the likelihood of four key climate outcomes. We found that most authors are skeptical that warming will be limited to the Paris targets of well below 2 °C, but are more optimistic that net zero CO2 emissions will be reached during the second half of this century. When asked about the beliefs of their peers, author responses showed strong correlations between personal and peer beliefs, suggesting that participants with extreme beliefs perceive their own estimates as closer to the community average than they actually are. The authors of the IPCC Assessment Report are skeptical that warming can be limited below 2 degrees Celsius according to the survey of 211 experts and statistical analysis.
{"title":"Perceptions of carbon dioxide emission reductions and future warming among climate experts","authors":"Seth Wynes, Steven J. Davis, Mitchell Dickau, Susan Ly, Edward Maibach, Joeri Rogelj, Kirsten Zickfeld, H. Damon Matthews","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01661-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01661-8","url":null,"abstract":"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employs emission scenarios to explore a range of future climate outcomes but refrains from assigning probabilities to individual scenarios. However, IPCC authors have their own views on the likelihood of different climate outcomes, which are valuable to understand because authors possess both expert insight and considerable influence. Here we report the results of a survey of 211 IPCC authors about the likelihood of four key climate outcomes. We found that most authors are skeptical that warming will be limited to the Paris targets of well below 2 °C, but are more optimistic that net zero CO2 emissions will be reached during the second half of this century. When asked about the beliefs of their peers, author responses showed strong correlations between personal and peer beliefs, suggesting that participants with extreme beliefs perceive their own estimates as closer to the community average than they actually are. The authors of the IPCC Assessment Report are skeptical that warming can be limited below 2 degrees Celsius according to the survey of 211 experts and statistical analysis.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01661-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142170383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-12DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01664-5
Guy A. Lomax, Thomas W. R. Powell, Timothy M. Lenton, Theo Economou, Andrew M. Cunliffe
Precipitation variability is forecast to increase under climate change but its impacts on vegetation productivity are complex. Here, we use generalised additive models and remote sensing-derived datasets to quantify the effect of precipitation amount, distribution, and intensity on the gross primary productivity of dry rangelands across sub-Saharan Africa from 2000 to 2019 and differentiate these effects from other variables. We find that total precipitation is the primary driver of productivity, but that more variable rainfall has a small negative effect across vegetation types and rainfall regimes. Temperature and soil nitrogen also have strong effects, especially in drier rangelands. Shrublands and grasslands are more sensitive to environmental variability than savannas. Our findings support a model in which the main constraints on productivity are maintenance of soil moisture and minimisation of plant water stress. This highlights the risks of climate warming and increasing variability for productivity in water-limited grass and shrublands but suggests savannas may have greater resilience in Africa. Total precipitation, temperature and soil nitrogen are the main drivers of gross primary productivity in dry rangelands in sub-Saharan Africa, with more variable rainfall having a small but negative impact, according to analysis of remote sensing datasets using generalised additive models.
{"title":"Untangling the environmental drivers of gross primary productivity in African rangelands","authors":"Guy A. Lomax, Thomas W. R. Powell, Timothy M. Lenton, Theo Economou, Andrew M. Cunliffe","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01664-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01664-5","url":null,"abstract":"Precipitation variability is forecast to increase under climate change but its impacts on vegetation productivity are complex. Here, we use generalised additive models and remote sensing-derived datasets to quantify the effect of precipitation amount, distribution, and intensity on the gross primary productivity of dry rangelands across sub-Saharan Africa from 2000 to 2019 and differentiate these effects from other variables. We find that total precipitation is the primary driver of productivity, but that more variable rainfall has a small negative effect across vegetation types and rainfall regimes. Temperature and soil nitrogen also have strong effects, especially in drier rangelands. Shrublands and grasslands are more sensitive to environmental variability than savannas. Our findings support a model in which the main constraints on productivity are maintenance of soil moisture and minimisation of plant water stress. This highlights the risks of climate warming and increasing variability for productivity in water-limited grass and shrublands but suggests savannas may have greater resilience in Africa. Total precipitation, temperature and soil nitrogen are the main drivers of gross primary productivity in dry rangelands in sub-Saharan Africa, with more variable rainfall having a small but negative impact, according to analysis of remote sensing datasets using generalised additive models.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01664-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142170377","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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