Pub Date : 2024-11-16DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01830-9
Megan K. B. Nolan, Fabio Marchese, Sam J. Purkis, Mustapha Ouhssain, Malika Kheireddine, Tullia I. Terraneo, Giovanni Chimienti, Mattie Rodrigue, Ameer A. Eweida, Burton Jones, Francesca Benzoni
Deep-sea coral frameworks are understudied in the Red Sea, where conditions in the deep are conspicuously warm and saline compared to other basins. Habitat suitability models can be used to predict the distribution pattern of species or assemblages where direct observation is difficult. Here we show how coral frameworks, built by species within the families Caryophylliidae and Dendrophylliidae, are distributed between water depths of 150 m and 700 m in the northern Red Sea and Gulf of Aqaba. To extrapolate the known (ground-truthed) positions of these deep frameworks, we use environmental and geomorphometric variables to inform well-performing maximum entropy models. Over 250 km2 of seafloor in our study area are identified as suitable for such frameworks, equivalent to at least 35% of the area of photic-zone coral reefs in the same region. We hence contend that deep-water coral frameworks are an important and underappreciated repository of Red Sea biodiversity. Deep-water coral frameworks may be an important and understudied source of biodiversity in the Red Sea, according to habitat suitability modelling generated using video imagery and in-situ coral sampling.
{"title":"Habitat suitability models reveal extensive distribution of deep warm-water coral frameworks in the Red Sea","authors":"Megan K. B. Nolan, Fabio Marchese, Sam J. Purkis, Mustapha Ouhssain, Malika Kheireddine, Tullia I. Terraneo, Giovanni Chimienti, Mattie Rodrigue, Ameer A. Eweida, Burton Jones, Francesca Benzoni","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01830-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01830-9","url":null,"abstract":"Deep-sea coral frameworks are understudied in the Red Sea, where conditions in the deep are conspicuously warm and saline compared to other basins. Habitat suitability models can be used to predict the distribution pattern of species or assemblages where direct observation is difficult. Here we show how coral frameworks, built by species within the families Caryophylliidae and Dendrophylliidae, are distributed between water depths of 150 m and 700 m in the northern Red Sea and Gulf of Aqaba. To extrapolate the known (ground-truthed) positions of these deep frameworks, we use environmental and geomorphometric variables to inform well-performing maximum entropy models. Over 250 km2 of seafloor in our study area are identified as suitable for such frameworks, equivalent to at least 35% of the area of photic-zone coral reefs in the same region. We hence contend that deep-water coral frameworks are an important and underappreciated repository of Red Sea biodiversity. Deep-water coral frameworks may be an important and understudied source of biodiversity in the Red Sea, according to habitat suitability modelling generated using video imagery and in-situ coral sampling.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-14"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01830-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142645810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-15DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01827-4
Michael O’Sullivan, Stephen Sitch, Pierre Friedlingstein, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Wouter Peters, Thais M. Rosan, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Stefanie Falk, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Richard A. Houghton, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Matthew J. McGrath, Yosuke Niwa, Paul I. Palmer, Prabir K. Patra, Julia Pongratz, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Clemens Schwingshackl, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Dongxu Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle
Northern forests are an important carbon sink, but our understanding of the driving factors is limited due to discrepancies between dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and atmospheric inversions. We show that DGVMs simulate a 50% lower sink (1.1 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 over 2001–2021) across North America, Europe, Russia, and China compared to atmospheric inversions (2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr−1). We explain why DGVMs underestimate the carbon sink by considering how they represent disturbance processes, specifically the overestimation of fire emissions, and the lack of robust forest demography resulting in lower forest regrowth rates than observed. We reconcile net sink estimates by using alternative disturbance-related fluxes. We estimate carbon uptake through forest regrowth by combining satellite-derived forest age and biomass maps. We calculate a regrowth flux of 1.1 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1, and combine this with satellite-derived estimates of fire emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1), land-use change emissions from bookkeeping models (0.9 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1), and the DGVM-estimated sink from CO2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, and climate change (2.2 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1). The resulting ‘bottom-up’ net flux of 2.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1 agrees with atmospheric inversions. The reconciliation holds at regional scales, increasing confidence in our results. A satellite-based estimate of forest regrowth carbon flux across the Northern Hemisphere suggests forest disturbance and regrowth are transient but important aspects of the carbon sink that may explain underestimates from dynamic global vegetation models
北方森林是一个重要的碳汇，但由于全球植被动态模型（DGVMs）与大气反演之间的差异，我们对其驱动因素的了解十分有限。我们的研究表明，与大气反演（2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr-1）相比，DGVMs 模拟的北美、欧洲、俄罗斯和中国的碳汇（2001-2021 年为 1.1 ± 0.5 PgC yr-1）低 50%。我们解释了为什么 DGVMs 低估了碳汇，因为我们考虑到了 DGVMs 如何表示干扰过程，特别是高估了火灾排放，以及缺乏稳健的森林人口统计导致森林再生长率低于观测值。我们通过使用其他与扰动相关的通量来调节净吸收汇的估计值。我们结合卫星得出的森林年龄和生物量地图，估算了森林重新生长对碳的吸收。我们计算出的再生通量为 1.1 ± 0.1 PgC yr-1，并将其与来自卫星的火灾排放估计值（0.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr-1）、来自簿记模型的土地利用变化排放（0.9 ± 0.2 PgC yr-1）以及来自二氧化碳施肥、氮沉积和气候变化的 DGVM 估计汇（2.2 ± 0.9 PgC yr-1）相结合。由此得出的 2.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr-1 的 "自下而上 "净通量与大气反演结果一致。在区域尺度上也是如此，这增加了对我们结果的信心。基于卫星的北半球森林再生碳通量估算表明，森林扰动和再生是碳汇的瞬时但重要的方面，可以解释动态全球植被模型低估的原因。
{"title":"The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink","authors":"Michael O’Sullivan, Stephen Sitch, Pierre Friedlingstein, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Wouter Peters, Thais M. Rosan, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Stefanie Falk, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Richard A. Houghton, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Matthew J. McGrath, Yosuke Niwa, Paul I. Palmer, Prabir K. Patra, Julia Pongratz, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Clemens Schwingshackl, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Dongxu Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01827-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01827-4","url":null,"abstract":"Northern forests are an important carbon sink, but our understanding of the driving factors is limited due to discrepancies between dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and atmospheric inversions. We show that DGVMs simulate a 50% lower sink (1.1 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 over 2001–2021) across North America, Europe, Russia, and China compared to atmospheric inversions (2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr−1). We explain why DGVMs underestimate the carbon sink by considering how they represent disturbance processes, specifically the overestimation of fire emissions, and the lack of robust forest demography resulting in lower forest regrowth rates than observed. We reconcile net sink estimates by using alternative disturbance-related fluxes. We estimate carbon uptake through forest regrowth by combining satellite-derived forest age and biomass maps. We calculate a regrowth flux of 1.1 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1, and combine this with satellite-derived estimates of fire emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1), land-use change emissions from bookkeeping models (0.9 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1), and the DGVM-estimated sink from CO2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, and climate change (2.2 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1). The resulting ‘bottom-up’ net flux of 2.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1 agrees with atmospheric inversions. The reconciliation holds at regional scales, increasing confidence in our results. A satellite-based estimate of forest regrowth carbon flux across the Northern Hemisphere suggests forest disturbance and regrowth are transient but important aspects of the carbon sink that may explain underestimates from dynamic global vegetation models","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01827-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142637019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Aerosols from South Asia directly enhance glacier melt over the Tibetan Plateau. While the transboundary transport of aerosols from South Asia towards the Tibetan Plateau has been extensively investigated from a tropospheric perspective, less focus has been given to the stratospheric dimension. Here we examined the impact of the sudden stratospheric warming in January 2021 on aerosol transport from South Asia towards the Tibetan Plateau via numerical simulation. The results revealed that the aerosol transport from South Asia to the Tibetan Plateau reduced by 30%–40% following the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming event. The eastward-propagating wave train stimulated by the stratospheric sudden warming induced an anticyclonic anomaly from the Persian Gulf to northern China, south of which easterly anomalies hindered the aerosol transport from South Asia to the Plateau. This study provides valuable insights for predicting air quality over the Tibetan Plateau. Following a sudden stratospheric warming event in 2021, transport of aerosols from South Asia to the Tibetan Plateau was suppressed as a result of changes in the tropospheric circulation, according to analyses with a weather forecasting model with a chemistry component.
{"title":"Reduced aerosol transport from South Asia to the Tibetan Plateau following the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming event","authors":"Yuling Hu, Haipeng Yu, Shichang Kang, Mian Xu, Siyu Chen, Junhua Yang, Xintong Chen, Jixiang Li","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01889-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01889-4","url":null,"abstract":"Aerosols from South Asia directly enhance glacier melt over the Tibetan Plateau. While the transboundary transport of aerosols from South Asia towards the Tibetan Plateau has been extensively investigated from a tropospheric perspective, less focus has been given to the stratospheric dimension. Here we examined the impact of the sudden stratospheric warming in January 2021 on aerosol transport from South Asia towards the Tibetan Plateau via numerical simulation. The results revealed that the aerosol transport from South Asia to the Tibetan Plateau reduced by 30%–40% following the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming event. The eastward-propagating wave train stimulated by the stratospheric sudden warming induced an anticyclonic anomaly from the Persian Gulf to northern China, south of which easterly anomalies hindered the aerosol transport from South Asia to the Plateau. This study provides valuable insights for predicting air quality over the Tibetan Plateau. Following a sudden stratospheric warming event in 2021, transport of aerosols from South Asia to the Tibetan Plateau was suppressed as a result of changes in the tropospheric circulation, according to analyses with a weather forecasting model with a chemistry component.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01889-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142645819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-15DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01857-y
Waqar ul Hassan, Munir Ahmad Nayak, Md Saquib Saharwardi, Junaid Ahmad Dar, Hari Prasad Dasari, Ibrahim Hoteit, Yasser Abualnaja
Global warming has led to a notable increase in heatwaves globally and regionally. In spring 2022, South Asia witnessed an unprecedented heatwave with temperatures breaking historical records and exceeding 5° C from climatological mean at several locations in the northern Indian subcontinent. Here, using 3D tracking, this heatwave ranked the most severe in the past 64 years, characterized by its protracted duration and wide spatial extent. The excess atmospheric heat, represented by temperature anomalies, during the mega-heatwave triggered rapid snowmelt across the snow-covered areas in the region, leading to an average loss of 42% in snow cover and 57% in snow depth of the regional snowpack. This rapid melting resulted in the complete disappearance of low-level snowpack in the western Himalayas, Pir Panjal, and Afghanistan highlands, leading to the lowest snowpack observed in the last six decades. Moreover, during the heatwave, the amount of snowfall received was only 29% of the long-term average. This combination of excessive melting and reduced snowfall culminated in a severe regional snow drought in spring 2022. The heatwave genesis lay a persistent high-pressure system over Northwest South Asia, reinforced by a quasi-stationary Rossby wave packet over Europe during the initial spell. Continuous heat from high-pressure ridges associated with circumglobal Rossby waves combined with the physical barrier of the Himalayas, lent staying power to this system during the second phase. An unprecedented heatwave in South Asia driven by a persistent high-pressure system coupled with a Rossby wave packet during spring 2022 led to an average loss of 42% in snow cover and 57% in snow depth of the regional snowpack, according to analysis of satellite observations and ERA5 reanalysis data.
{"title":"Unveiling the devastating effect of the spring 2022 mega-heatwave on the South Asian snowpack","authors":"Waqar ul Hassan, Munir Ahmad Nayak, Md Saquib Saharwardi, Junaid Ahmad Dar, Hari Prasad Dasari, Ibrahim Hoteit, Yasser Abualnaja","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01857-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01857-y","url":null,"abstract":"Global warming has led to a notable increase in heatwaves globally and regionally. In spring 2022, South Asia witnessed an unprecedented heatwave with temperatures breaking historical records and exceeding 5° C from climatological mean at several locations in the northern Indian subcontinent. Here, using 3D tracking, this heatwave ranked the most severe in the past 64 years, characterized by its protracted duration and wide spatial extent. The excess atmospheric heat, represented by temperature anomalies, during the mega-heatwave triggered rapid snowmelt across the snow-covered areas in the region, leading to an average loss of 42% in snow cover and 57% in snow depth of the regional snowpack. This rapid melting resulted in the complete disappearance of low-level snowpack in the western Himalayas, Pir Panjal, and Afghanistan highlands, leading to the lowest snowpack observed in the last six decades. Moreover, during the heatwave, the amount of snowfall received was only 29% of the long-term average. This combination of excessive melting and reduced snowfall culminated in a severe regional snow drought in spring 2022. The heatwave genesis lay a persistent high-pressure system over Northwest South Asia, reinforced by a quasi-stationary Rossby wave packet over Europe during the initial spell. Continuous heat from high-pressure ridges associated with circumglobal Rossby waves combined with the physical barrier of the Himalayas, lent staying power to this system during the second phase. An unprecedented heatwave in South Asia driven by a persistent high-pressure system coupled with a Rossby wave packet during spring 2022 led to an average loss of 42% in snow cover and 57% in snow depth of the regional snowpack, according to analysis of satellite observations and ERA5 reanalysis data.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01857-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142645816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-15DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01880-z
M. van den Bosch, J. K. Costanza, R. A. Peek, J. M. Mola, Z. L. Steel
Anthropogenic climate change is altering patterns of extreme weather events across the planet, with far-ranging consequences for biodiversity. Increases in the frequency, duration, and severity of droughts are anticipated to substantially impact natural ecosystems. Here, we predicted the extent to which 1221 terrestrial vertebrates in the contiguous United States will be increasingly exposed to annual (12-month) and prolonged (36-month) drought, under three global climate models and two representative concentration pathways. On average, a 377% increase in annual drought exposure and a 579% increase in prolonged drought exposure are anticipated for the study area by 2050–2080, compared to 1950–2005. Species in the southwestern USA could see the largest increases in drought exposure, while this area also has the highest vertebrate diversity and an abundance of drought-threatened species. Our results aid in identifying vertebrates and ecoregions anticipated to see large increases in drought exposure, which can inform conservation strategies aimed at mitigating vertebrate extinction risks. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to significantly increase drought exposure for 1221 terrestrial vertebrates in the United States, with an average increase of 377% for annual drought and 579% for prolonged drought by 2050–2080, according to analysis of different climate scenarios to assess drought exposure across species and ecoregions.
{"title":"Climate change scenarios forecast increased drought exposure for terrestrial vertebrates in the contiguous United States","authors":"M. van den Bosch, J. K. Costanza, R. A. Peek, J. M. Mola, Z. L. Steel","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01880-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01880-z","url":null,"abstract":"Anthropogenic climate change is altering patterns of extreme weather events across the planet, with far-ranging consequences for biodiversity. Increases in the frequency, duration, and severity of droughts are anticipated to substantially impact natural ecosystems. Here, we predicted the extent to which 1221 terrestrial vertebrates in the contiguous United States will be increasingly exposed to annual (12-month) and prolonged (36-month) drought, under three global climate models and two representative concentration pathways. On average, a 377% increase in annual drought exposure and a 579% increase in prolonged drought exposure are anticipated for the study area by 2050–2080, compared to 1950–2005. Species in the southwestern USA could see the largest increases in drought exposure, while this area also has the highest vertebrate diversity and an abundance of drought-threatened species. Our results aid in identifying vertebrates and ecoregions anticipated to see large increases in drought exposure, which can inform conservation strategies aimed at mitigating vertebrate extinction risks. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to significantly increase drought exposure for 1221 terrestrial vertebrates in the United States, with an average increase of 377% for annual drought and 579% for prolonged drought by 2050–2080, according to analysis of different climate scenarios to assess drought exposure across species and ecoregions.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01880-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142645812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-15DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01840-7
Yannic Damm, Jan Börner, Nicolas Gerber, Britaldo Soares-Filho
The conversion of tropical forests in the Amazon region for agriculture and other land uses is associated with health risks linked, for example, to air and water pollution from forest fires and agrochemical use. Several conservation policies introduced in the 2000s aimed at reducing deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Here we exploit variations in the regional targeting of these policies to measure human health externalities of conservation policy enforcement using a double-difference approach at close distance to the Amazon biome border. We find that the change in deforestation pressure reduces forest fire incidence. As a consequence, fine particulate matter concentrations in the air—a main vector for adverse health effects of fire smoke—also decrease. This leads to a reduction in the hospitalization and death prevalence rate due to respiratory health problems and other health benefits for the local population. Forest conservation policies driving reduced deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon improves local air quality and decreases hospitalization and mortality rates due to respiratory diseases of the population, as quantified with impact evaluation methods
{"title":"Health benefits of reduced deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon","authors":"Yannic Damm, Jan Börner, Nicolas Gerber, Britaldo Soares-Filho","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01840-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01840-7","url":null,"abstract":"The conversion of tropical forests in the Amazon region for agriculture and other land uses is associated with health risks linked, for example, to air and water pollution from forest fires and agrochemical use. Several conservation policies introduced in the 2000s aimed at reducing deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Here we exploit variations in the regional targeting of these policies to measure human health externalities of conservation policy enforcement using a double-difference approach at close distance to the Amazon biome border. We find that the change in deforestation pressure reduces forest fire incidence. As a consequence, fine particulate matter concentrations in the air—a main vector for adverse health effects of fire smoke—also decrease. This leads to a reduction in the hospitalization and death prevalence rate due to respiratory health problems and other health benefits for the local population. Forest conservation policies driving reduced deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon improves local air quality and decreases hospitalization and mortality rates due to respiratory diseases of the population, as quantified with impact evaluation methods","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01840-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142636999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-14DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01877-8
J. Kavan, M. C. Strzelecki, D. I. Benn, A. Luckman, M. Roman, P. Zagórski
The widespread retreat of Svalbard glaciers has been frequently interrupted by short-lived surge advances. In the case of marine-terminating glaciers this is often expressed in the remodelling of coastal zones. Here, we analyzed the coastal zone changes in front of the recently surging Recherchebreen. The glacier advanced ca 1200 m since 2018 and suddenly stopped in June 2020 followed by the rapid formation of a delta system in front of its subglacial meltwater outlet. The delta advanced by ca 450 m with probably the fastest progradation rate ever detected in the Arctic region (ca 7 m/day). The synchroneity of the final slow-down of the glacier with the delta building indicates that this event records the release of stored water and sediments from beneath the glacier and thus provides direct evidence of drainage reorganisation at the termination of a surge. Such behaviour is likely common among Svalbard surging glaciers, but it only rarely leaves any direct geomorphic evidence. The Recherchebreen glacier in Svalbard, which had been advancing at 1200 m since 2018, abruptly stopped in June 2020, forming a rapid delta system with a daily progradation rate of 7 meters, suggesting drainage reorganization at the end of the surge, according to analysis of the changes in the coastal zone of the Recherchebreen glacier.
{"title":"Glacier surge as a trigger for the fastest delta growth in the Arctic","authors":"J. Kavan, M. C. Strzelecki, D. I. Benn, A. Luckman, M. Roman, P. Zagórski","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01877-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01877-8","url":null,"abstract":"The widespread retreat of Svalbard glaciers has been frequently interrupted by short-lived surge advances. In the case of marine-terminating glaciers this is often expressed in the remodelling of coastal zones. Here, we analyzed the coastal zone changes in front of the recently surging Recherchebreen. The glacier advanced ca 1200 m since 2018 and suddenly stopped in June 2020 followed by the rapid formation of a delta system in front of its subglacial meltwater outlet. The delta advanced by ca 450 m with probably the fastest progradation rate ever detected in the Arctic region (ca 7 m/day). The synchroneity of the final slow-down of the glacier with the delta building indicates that this event records the release of stored water and sediments from beneath the glacier and thus provides direct evidence of drainage reorganisation at the termination of a surge. Such behaviour is likely common among Svalbard surging glaciers, but it only rarely leaves any direct geomorphic evidence. The Recherchebreen glacier in Svalbard, which had been advancing at 1200 m since 2018, abruptly stopped in June 2020, forming a rapid delta system with a daily progradation rate of 7 meters, suggesting drainage reorganization at the end of the surge, according to analysis of the changes in the coastal zone of the Recherchebreen glacier.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01877-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142636991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-14DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01834-5
Diego Aedo, Daniel Melnick, Marco Cisternas, Dominik Brill
Multi-millennial records of great megathrust earthquakes have highlighted differences in periodicity and recurrence behavior. Understanding tectonic processes responsible for these differences is relevant for fault mechanics and hazard models. Here, we present a paleoseismic record inferred from raised beach ridges in the 2010 Maule earthquake (Mw 8.8) segment in south-central Chile that includes 24 interseismic intervals over 4.5 kyr suggesting a weakly-periodic recurrence behavior. In turn, great earthquakes in the adjacent 1960 Valdivia earthquake (Mw 9.5) segment occurred with periodic recurrence over the same time span. Both segments have similar trench sediments thicknesses as well as rheological and geometrical boundary conditions, but Maule has a wider frontal accretionary wedge and several splay faults rooted in the seismogenic zone whereas Valdivia lacks splay faults and trench sediments are mostly subducted and underplated. These differences may have an impact on upper-plate compliance and megathrust friction, affecting earthquake size and recurrence periodicity. A paleoseismic record inferred from raised beach ridges along the Maule earthquake segment of the south-central Chilean margin displays weakly-periodic recurrence behaviour in comparison to strong periodicity over the nearby Valdivia segment
{"title":"Tectonic control on great earthquake periodicity in south-central Chile","authors":"Diego Aedo, Daniel Melnick, Marco Cisternas, Dominik Brill","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01834-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01834-5","url":null,"abstract":"Multi-millennial records of great megathrust earthquakes have highlighted differences in periodicity and recurrence behavior. Understanding tectonic processes responsible for these differences is relevant for fault mechanics and hazard models. Here, we present a paleoseismic record inferred from raised beach ridges in the 2010 Maule earthquake (Mw 8.8) segment in south-central Chile that includes 24 interseismic intervals over 4.5 kyr suggesting a weakly-periodic recurrence behavior. In turn, great earthquakes in the adjacent 1960 Valdivia earthquake (Mw 9.5) segment occurred with periodic recurrence over the same time span. Both segments have similar trench sediments thicknesses as well as rheological and geometrical boundary conditions, but Maule has a wider frontal accretionary wedge and several splay faults rooted in the seismogenic zone whereas Valdivia lacks splay faults and trench sediments are mostly subducted and underplated. These differences may have an impact on upper-plate compliance and megathrust friction, affecting earthquake size and recurrence periodicity. A paleoseismic record inferred from raised beach ridges along the Maule earthquake segment of the south-central Chilean margin displays weakly-periodic recurrence behaviour in comparison to strong periodicity over the nearby Valdivia segment","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01834-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142637018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-14DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01868-9
Aifang Chen, Yadu Pokhrel, Deliang Chen, Hao Huang, Zhijun Dai, Bin He, Jie Wang, Jiaye Li, Hong Wang, Junguo Liu
Tropical cyclones have a big impact on flood risk, and understanding how their activity interacts with population exposure under climate change is critical. Here we investigate spatiotemporal changes in flood risk using numerical models together with historical observations and future projections of tropical cyclone tracks. We find that tropical cyclone-related flood risk shifts from the Mekong Delta to the eastern lower Mekong Basin, driven by the interaction between tropical cyclones and population exposure. Historically, extreme precipitation from tropical cyclones increased flood risk in about 14% and decreased in 7% of the basin. Future tropical cyclones may increase flood risk in about 7% and reduce in nearly 18% of the basin. Moreover, population exposure growth has historically increased flood risk in 3% of the basin and is projected to result in a 1% increase. These findings highlight the complex interactions of tropical cyclone hazards and socioeconomic factors influencing flood risk. The geographical distribution of flood risk in the Mekong Basin has changed as a result of shifts in extreme precipitation from tropical cyclones as well as population exposure and is projected to continue to evolve, according to simulations with a hydrological-hydrodynamic model and observations.
{"title":"Impact of tropical cyclones and socioeconomic exposure on flood risk distribution in the Mekong Basin","authors":"Aifang Chen, Yadu Pokhrel, Deliang Chen, Hao Huang, Zhijun Dai, Bin He, Jie Wang, Jiaye Li, Hong Wang, Junguo Liu","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01868-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01868-9","url":null,"abstract":"Tropical cyclones have a big impact on flood risk, and understanding how their activity interacts with population exposure under climate change is critical. Here we investigate spatiotemporal changes in flood risk using numerical models together with historical observations and future projections of tropical cyclone tracks. We find that tropical cyclone-related flood risk shifts from the Mekong Delta to the eastern lower Mekong Basin, driven by the interaction between tropical cyclones and population exposure. Historically, extreme precipitation from tropical cyclones increased flood risk in about 14% and decreased in 7% of the basin. Future tropical cyclones may increase flood risk in about 7% and reduce in nearly 18% of the basin. Moreover, population exposure growth has historically increased flood risk in 3% of the basin and is projected to result in a 1% increase. These findings highlight the complex interactions of tropical cyclone hazards and socioeconomic factors influencing flood risk. The geographical distribution of flood risk in the Mekong Basin has changed as a result of shifts in extreme precipitation from tropical cyclones as well as population exposure and is projected to continue to evolve, according to simulations with a hydrological-hydrodynamic model and observations.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01868-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142636990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-13DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01879-6
Itamar A. Shabtai, Benjamin D. Hafner, Steffen A. Schweizer, Carmen Höschen, Angela Possinger, Johannes Lehmann, Taryn Bauerle
Organic compounds exuded by plant roots can form organo-mineral associations through physico-chemical interactions with soil minerals but can disrupt existing organo-mineral associations by increasing their microbial decomposition and dissolution. The controls on these opposing processes are poorly understood, as are the chemical and spatial characteristics of these associations which may explain gain or loss of organic matter at the root-soil interface termed the rhizosphere. By pulse-labeling with 13C-carbon dioxide, we found that maize root exudates increased organic matter in the rhizosphere clay size fraction and decreased organic matter in the silt size fraction, and that organic matter loss was mitigated by dry conditions. Organic matter associated with rhizosphere clay particles was linked to microbial metabolism of exudates and was more spatially and chemically heterogeneous than non-rhizosphere clay particles. Our findings show that root exudates can simultaneously form and disrupt organo-mineral associations, mediated by mineral size and composition, and soil moisture. Compounds released by plant roots can stimulate carbon storage in clay fraction of soils and carbon loss in the silt fraction of soils at the same time, according to experiments on maize plants labelled with carbon-13.
{"title":"Root exudates simultaneously form and disrupt soil organo-mineral associations","authors":"Itamar A. Shabtai, Benjamin D. Hafner, Steffen A. Schweizer, Carmen Höschen, Angela Possinger, Johannes Lehmann, Taryn Bauerle","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01879-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01879-6","url":null,"abstract":"Organic compounds exuded by plant roots can form organo-mineral associations through physico-chemical interactions with soil minerals but can disrupt existing organo-mineral associations by increasing their microbial decomposition and dissolution. The controls on these opposing processes are poorly understood, as are the chemical and spatial characteristics of these associations which may explain gain or loss of organic matter at the root-soil interface termed the rhizosphere. By pulse-labeling with 13C-carbon dioxide, we found that maize root exudates increased organic matter in the rhizosphere clay size fraction and decreased organic matter in the silt size fraction, and that organic matter loss was mitigated by dry conditions. Organic matter associated with rhizosphere clay particles was linked to microbial metabolism of exudates and was more spatially and chemically heterogeneous than non-rhizosphere clay particles. Our findings show that root exudates can simultaneously form and disrupt organo-mineral associations, mediated by mineral size and composition, and soil moisture. Compounds released by plant roots can stimulate carbon storage in clay fraction of soils and carbon loss in the silt fraction of soils at the same time, according to experiments on maize plants labelled with carbon-13.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01879-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142637007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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