High frequency radar error classification and prediction based on K-means methods

Abstract

This study aims to characterize the high frequency radar and numerically simulated low-frequency filtered currents in the south-eastern Bay of Biscay (study area) using a K-means classification algorithm based on an improved Euclidean Distance calculation method that does not take missing values. The errors between observations and simulations was estimated and predicted based on this classification method. Results indicate that predominantly eastward (northward) currents over the Spanish (French) continental shelf/slope in winter and more variable currents in the west and south-west in summer. The model classification results for circulation characteristics are in relatively good agreement with HF radar results, especially for currents on the Spanish (French) shelf/slope. In addition, the probabilistic relationship between observed and modeled currents was explored, obtaining the probability of occurrence of modeled current groups when each group of observed currents occurs. Finally, predictions of model and observed current errors were made based on the classification results, and it was found that the predictions based on the classification of all data had the smallest errors, with a 17% improvement over the unclassified control experiment. This study provides a foundation for subsequent model error testing, forecast product improvement and data assimilation.