Respiratory Diagnoses Year-Round: Unraveling the Multifaceted Pediatric Infection Cycles

IF 4.3 4区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI:10.1111/irv.70037
Marcin Piotr Walkowiak, Jarosław Walkowiak, Dariusz Walkowiak
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Abstract

Objective

The aim of the study is to analyze the annual cycle of pediatric medically attended respiratory illnesses.

Study Design

Data on 141 million pediatric respiratory visits from the years 2010–2019 were obtained from the Polish National Healthcare Fund. To identify underlying patterns and trends within the aggregated data, techniques like seasonal-trend decomposition using LOESS (STL) and principal component analysis (PCA) were applied.

Results

A strongly recurring pattern was observed. Following the annual minimum in late summer, there was a sudden surge in upper respiratory infections in early September. Subsequently, overall visits declined gradually, while the share of lower respiratory infections increased, particularly during the influenza peaks from January to March. Afterwards, visits declined steadily, with an additional peak of tonsillopharyngitis noted in midsummer. Dimensionality reduction of diagnoses implied the existence of two major groups of co-occurring diagnoses, the proportions of which change over the year: one smaller but more severe, peaking during the influenza season, and the second dominating with lower severity. Age differences in diagnoses were observed, with babies showing upper respiratory infections likely diagnosed with the common cold rather than a more specific upper respiratory infection.

Conclusion

While enhancing surveillance strategies is indeed a desirable long-term goal, it is worth noting that despite the variability observed in the onset of the influenza season, the infection cycles generally follow a relatively fixed pattern. This consistency provides a foundation for effective planning and underscores the potential for proactive measures to mitigate the impact of seasonal outbreaks.

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全年呼吸道诊断:揭开儿科多方面感染周期的神秘面纱。
研究目的本研究旨在分析儿科呼吸道疾病就诊的年度周期:研究设计:研究人员从波兰国家医疗基金获得了 2010-2019 年间 1.41 亿次儿科呼吸道就诊数据。为了在汇总数据中识别潜在的模式和趋势,研究人员采用了季节趋势分解(STL)和主成分分析(PCA)等技术:结果:观察到一种强烈的重复模式。在夏末出现年度最低值后,9 月初上呼吸道感染病例突然激增。随后,总就诊人次逐渐下降,而下呼吸道感染的比例上升,尤其是在 1 月至 3 月的流感高峰期。之后,就诊人数稳步下降,仲夏时节又出现了扁桃体咽炎就诊高峰。诊断的降维意味着存在两大类同时出现的诊断,其比例在一年中会发生变化:一类较小但更严重,在流感季节达到高峰;另一类则占主导地位,严重程度较低。在诊断中观察到了年龄差异,出现上呼吸道感染的婴儿很可能被诊断为普通感冒,而不是更特殊的上呼吸道感染:尽管加强监测策略确实是一个理想的长期目标,但值得注意的是,尽管流感季节的开始存在差异,但感染周期一般遵循相对固定的模式。这种一致性为有效规划奠定了基础,并强调了采取积极措施减轻季节性流感爆发影响的潜力。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.20
自引率
4.50%
发文量
120
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses is the official journal of the International Society of Influenza and Other Respiratory Virus Diseases - an independent scientific professional society - dedicated to promoting the prevention, detection, treatment, and control of influenza and other respiratory virus diseases. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses is an Open Access journal. Copyright on any research article published by Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses is retained by the author(s). Authors grant Wiley a license to publish the article and identify itself as the original publisher. Authors also grant any third party the right to use the article freely as long as its integrity is maintained and its original authors, citation details and publisher are identified.
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