Risk of introducing Zika virus in the Canadian cord blood supply: A risk analysis.

Abstract

Background: In Canada, as many as 24% of mothers are deferred from cord blood (CB) donation due to risk factors for Zika virus (ZIKV). However, the ZIKV epidemic has waned considerably since 2016, and there has not been any report of ZIKV transmission by CB transplantation, which questions this policy. Thus, we performed an analysis of the risk of introducing ZIKV in the CB supply maintained by Héma-Québec (HQ) and Canadian Blood Services (CBS).

Study design and methods: This simulation considered the following parameters: the risk of travel exposure in a high-risk ZIKV country, the duration of travel, the daily risk of acquiring ZIKV in a high-risk country, the probability of materno-fetal ZIKV transmission, the probability of asymptomatic fetal viremia, and the probability of sexual transmission. A hundred million Monte Carlo simulations were run.

Results: In the most-likely scenario (probability of traveling to a high-risk ZIKV country while pregnant = 0.178), the risk was estimated at 0.9 ZIKV-positive donations per million donations (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.4-1.6)-or one every 868 years at HQ and one every 453 years at CBS. In the pessimistic model (probability of traveling to a high-risk ZIKV country while pregnant = 0.240), the risk was estimated at 1.2 ZIKV-positive donations per million donations (95% CI = 0.6-2.1)-or one every 644 years at HQ and one every 340 years at CBS.

Discussion: We conclude that the risk of introducing ZIKV in the Canadian CB supply is too small to justify maintaining the current policy.