A new reliability health status assessment model for complex systems based on belief rule base

IF 9.4 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2024.110614
Mingyuan Liu, Wei He, Ning Ma, Hailong Zhu, Guohui Zhou
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Abstract

In complex systems, health status assessment identifies system conditions and potential issues. However, large uncertainties and variations make efficient model construction challenging. The belief rule base (BRB), which addresses uncertainty through data-driven and knowledge-driven methods, is widely used for health status assessment of complex systems. Current BRB modeling methods focus primarily on accuracy, leaving a gap in research on reliability. Therefore, a reliable BRB (RE-BRB), which enables effective modeling for complex system health assessment under high reliability requirements, is proposed in this paper. First, a systematic reliability analysis of the BRB is performed, and the reliability criteria are defined. Second, the model parameters of the RE-BRB are optimized via the nondominated sorting whale optimization algorithm with reliability constraints (NSWOA), and the reliability of the model is ensured. In addition, a perturbation analysis of the RE-BRB model is conducted to identify the perturbation thresholds. The perturbation thresholds acceptable to the model provide guidance for managers in making decisions. Last, using the WD615 diesel engine and flywheel bearing as examples, this method achieves reliable system health status assessment by accurately assessing system status, incorporating the ability to address external perturbations and providing an easily interpretable output process.
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基于信念规则库的复杂系统可靠性健康状况评估新模型
在复杂系统中,健康状况评估可确定系统状况和潜在问题。然而,巨大的不确定性和变化使得高效的模型构建面临挑战。信念规则库(BRB)通过数据驱动和知识驱动的方法来解决不确定性问题,被广泛应用于复杂系统的健康状况评估。目前的信念规则库建模方法主要侧重于准确性,在可靠性方面的研究还存在空白。因此,本文提出了一种可靠的 BRB(RE-BRB),它能在高可靠性要求下为复杂系统健康状况评估进行有效建模。首先,对 BRB 进行了系统的可靠性分析,并定义了可靠性标准。其次,通过带可靠性约束的无支配排序鲸优化算法(NSWOA)优化 RE-BRB 的模型参数,确保模型的可靠性。此外,还对 RE-BRB 模型进行了扰动分析,以确定扰动阈值。模型可接受的扰动阈值可为管理人员提供决策指导。最后,以 WD615 柴油发动机和飞轮轴承为例,该方法通过准确评估系统状态、结合处理外部扰动的能力以及提供易于解释的输出过程,实现了可靠的系统健康状态评估。
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来源期刊
Reliability Engineering & System Safety
Reliability Engineering & System Safety 管理科学-工程:工业
CiteScore
15.20
自引率
39.50%
发文量
621
审稿时长
67 days
期刊介绍: Elsevier publishes Reliability Engineering & System Safety in association with the European Safety and Reliability Association and the Safety Engineering and Risk Analysis Division. The international journal is devoted to developing and applying methods to enhance the safety and reliability of complex technological systems, like nuclear power plants, chemical plants, hazardous waste facilities, space systems, offshore and maritime systems, transportation systems, constructed infrastructure, and manufacturing plants. The journal normally publishes only articles that involve the analysis of substantive problems related to the reliability of complex systems or present techniques and/or theoretical results that have a discernable relationship to the solution of such problems. An important aim is to balance academic material and practical applications.
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