Model-informed optimal allocation of limited resources to mitigate infectious disease outbreaks in societies at war.

IF 3.7 2区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Journal of The Royal Society Interface Pub Date : 2024-11-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-06 DOI:10.1098/rsif.2024.0575
Vaibhava Srivastava, Drik Sarkar, Claus Kadelka
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Abstract

Infectious diseases thrive in war-torn societies. The recent sharp increase in human conflict and war thus requires the development of disease mitigation tools that account for the specifics of war, such as the scarcity of important public health resources. We developed a compartmental, differential equation-based disease model that considers key social, war and disease mechanisms, such as gender homophily and the replacement of soldiers. This model enables the identification of optimal allocation strategies that, given limited resources required for treating infected individuals, minimize disease burden, assessed by total mortality and final epidemic size. A comprehensive model analysis reveals that the level of resource scarcity fundamentally affects the optimal allocation. Desynchronization of the epidemic peaks among several population subgroups emerges as a desirable principle since it reduces disease spread between different subgroups. Further, the level of preferential mixing among people of the same gender, gender homophily, proves to strongly affect disease dynamics and optimal treatment allocation strategies, highlighting the importance of accurately accounting for heterogeneous mixing patterns. Altogether, the findings help answer a timely question: how can infectious diseases be best controlled in societies at war? The developed model can be easily extended to specific diseases, countries and interventions.

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根据模型优化有限资源的分配,以缓解战争社会中传染病的爆发。
传染病在饱受战争蹂躏的社会中肆虐。因此,最近人类冲突和战争急剧增加,需要开发能考虑到战争特殊性(如重要公共卫生资源稀缺)的疾病缓解工具。我们开发了一个基于微分方程的分区疾病模型,该模型考虑了关键的社会、战争和疾病机制,如性别同质性和士兵替换。该模型能够确定最佳分配策略,在治疗受感染个体所需资源有限的情况下,通过总死亡率和最终疫情规模评估,最大限度地减轻疾病负担。综合模型分析表明,资源稀缺程度会从根本上影响最优分配。疫情峰值在几个人口亚群之间的非同步化是一个理想的原则,因为它可以减少疾病在不同亚群之间的传播。此外,事实证明,同性之间的优先混合程度(性别同质性)会对疾病动态和最佳治疗分配策略产生强烈影响,这凸显了准确考虑异质性混合模式的重要性。总之,这些发现有助于回答一个适时的问题:在战争社会中如何才能最好地控制传染病?所建立的模型可以很容易地扩展到特定疾病、国家和干预措施。
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来源期刊
Journal of The Royal Society Interface
Journal of The Royal Society Interface 综合性期刊-综合性期刊
CiteScore
7.10
自引率
2.60%
发文量
234
审稿时长
2.5 months
期刊介绍: J. R. Soc. Interface welcomes articles of high quality research at the interface of the physical and life sciences. It provides a high-quality forum to publish rapidly and interact across this boundary in two main ways: J. R. Soc. Interface publishes research applying chemistry, engineering, materials science, mathematics and physics to the biological and medical sciences; it also highlights discoveries in the life sciences of relevance to the physical sciences. Both sides of the interface are considered equally and it is one of the only journals to cover this exciting new territory. J. R. Soc. Interface welcomes contributions on a diverse range of topics, including but not limited to; biocomplexity, bioengineering, bioinformatics, biomaterials, biomechanics, bionanoscience, biophysics, chemical biology, computer science (as applied to the life sciences), medical physics, synthetic biology, systems biology, theoretical biology and tissue engineering.
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