{"title":"Model-informed optimal allocation of limited resources to mitigate infectious disease outbreaks in societies at war.","authors":"Vaibhava Srivastava, Drik Sarkar, Claus Kadelka","doi":"10.1098/rsif.2024.0575","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Infectious diseases thrive in war-torn societies. The recent sharp increase in human conflict and war thus requires the development of disease mitigation tools that account for the specifics of war, such as the scarcity of important public health resources. We developed a compartmental, differential equation-based disease model that considers key social, war and disease mechanisms, such as gender homophily and the replacement of soldiers. This model enables the identification of optimal allocation strategies that, given limited resources required for treating infected individuals, minimize disease burden, assessed by total mortality and final epidemic size. A comprehensive model analysis reveals that the level of resource scarcity fundamentally affects the optimal allocation. Desynchronization of the epidemic peaks among several population subgroups emerges as a desirable principle since it reduces disease spread between different subgroups. Further, the level of preferential mixing among people of the same gender, gender homophily, proves to strongly affect disease dynamics and optimal treatment allocation strategies, highlighting the importance of accurately accounting for heterogeneous mixing patterns. Altogether, the findings help answer a timely question: how can infectious diseases be best controlled in societies at war? The developed model can be easily extended to specific diseases, countries and interventions.</p>","PeriodicalId":17488,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface","volume":"21 220","pages":"20240575"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11538904/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface","FirstCategoryId":"103","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2024.0575","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/11/6 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Infectious diseases thrive in war-torn societies. The recent sharp increase in human conflict and war thus requires the development of disease mitigation tools that account for the specifics of war, such as the scarcity of important public health resources. We developed a compartmental, differential equation-based disease model that considers key social, war and disease mechanisms, such as gender homophily and the replacement of soldiers. This model enables the identification of optimal allocation strategies that, given limited resources required for treating infected individuals, minimize disease burden, assessed by total mortality and final epidemic size. A comprehensive model analysis reveals that the level of resource scarcity fundamentally affects the optimal allocation. Desynchronization of the epidemic peaks among several population subgroups emerges as a desirable principle since it reduces disease spread between different subgroups. Further, the level of preferential mixing among people of the same gender, gender homophily, proves to strongly affect disease dynamics and optimal treatment allocation strategies, highlighting the importance of accurately accounting for heterogeneous mixing patterns. Altogether, the findings help answer a timely question: how can infectious diseases be best controlled in societies at war? The developed model can be easily extended to specific diseases, countries and interventions.
期刊介绍:
J. R. Soc. Interface welcomes articles of high quality research at the interface of the physical and life sciences. It provides a high-quality forum to publish rapidly and interact across this boundary in two main ways: J. R. Soc. Interface publishes research applying chemistry, engineering, materials science, mathematics and physics to the biological and medical sciences; it also highlights discoveries in the life sciences of relevance to the physical sciences. Both sides of the interface are considered equally and it is one of the only journals to cover this exciting new territory. J. R. Soc. Interface welcomes contributions on a diverse range of topics, including but not limited to; biocomplexity, bioengineering, bioinformatics, biomaterials, biomechanics, bionanoscience, biophysics, chemical biology, computer science (as applied to the life sciences), medical physics, synthetic biology, systems biology, theoretical biology and tissue engineering.