Towards a method for forecasting earthquakes in Iceland using changes in groundwater chemistry

Abstract

An advance has been made towards a method for forecasting earthquakes several months before they occur. The method relies on changes of groundwater chemistry as earthquake precursors. In a study published in 2014, we showed that changes of groundwater chemistry occurred prior to and were associated with two earthquakes of magnitude 5 and higher, which affected northern Iceland in 2012 and 2013. Here we test the hypothesis that similar or larger earthquakes could have been forecast in the following decade (i.e. 2014–2023) based on our published findings. We found that we could have forecast one of the three greater than magnitude 5 earthquakes that occurred. Noting that changes of groundwater chemistry were oscillatory, we infer expansion and contraction of the groundwater source region caused by coupled crustal dilation and fracture mineralisation associated with the stress build-up before earthquakes. We conclude by proposing how our approach could be implemented elsewhere. An analysis of groundwater chemistry in northern Iceland from 2014 to 2023 shows that groundwater chemical changes can precede earthquakes by several months and may carry some potential for forecasting earthquakes.