The Potential of Internal Migration to Shape Rural and Urban Populations Across Africa, Asia, and Latin America

IF 4.6 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Population and Development Review Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI:10.1111/padr.12676
Ashira Menashe‐Oren, Philippe Bocquier
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Abstract

Subnational divergence in the age and sex structures of populations can have far‐stretching consequences for development: from marriage markets to the potential for violence to economic growth. With urbanization and the demographic transition still underway, rural and urban populations continue to differ across low‐ and middle‐income countries. We examine the extent by which internal migration contributes to these differences, from 1970 to 2014 using estimates of migration between rural and urban sectors based on census data from 45 countries. We found that despite heavily delineated migration profiles by age and sex, internal migration does not alter sex and age structures of rural and urban populations. All the same, internal migration does increase urban growth in Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. In contrast, in Africa, internal migration has little leverage with the urban transition. Across the continents, there is a potential for de‐urbanization, driven by a rural/urban gap in fertility. As such, the rural population may continue to constitute a significant proportion of national populations, necessitating critical investments to ensure they are not left behind.
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国内移民塑造非洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲城乡人口的潜力
国家以下人口年龄和性别结构的差异会对发展产生深远的影响:从婚姻市场到暴力的可能性,再到经济增长。随着城市化和人口结构转型的不断深入,中低收入国家的城乡人口继续存在差异。我们利用基于 45 个国家人口普查数据的城乡人口迁移估算,研究了 1970 年至 2014 年期间国内人口迁移在多大程度上造成了这些差异。我们发现,尽管按年龄和性别划分的人口迁移特征非常明显,但国内迁移并没有改变农村和城市人口的性别和年龄结构。尽管如此,在亚洲、拉丁美洲和加勒比地区,国内移民确实增加了城市人口的增长。相比之下,在非洲,国内移民对城市转型的影响很小。在各大洲,由于城乡生育率的差距,存在着去城市化的可能性。因此,农村人口可能继续在国家人口中占相当大的比例,这就需要进行关键投资,以确保他们不被抛在后面。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
4.00%
发文量
60
期刊介绍: Population and Development Review is essential reading to keep abreast of population studies, research on the interrelationships between population and socioeconomic change, and related thinking on public policy. Its interests span both developed and developing countries, theoretical advances as well as empirical analyses and case studies, a broad range of disciplinary approaches, and concern with historical as well as present-day problems.
期刊最新文献
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