This essay explores and reviews the literature from low‐ and middle‐income countries on the pathways of influence between women's empowerment and reproductive outcomes, specially focusing on contraception, and points to some outstanding gaps. We adopt a framework that assesses the influence of contextual factors, notably kinship structures, and marriage systems, on women's empowerment and agency and other transformational factors affecting women's agency and gender roles and wielding direct and indirect influences on empowerment and contraceptive outcomes. The review of around 80 studies highlights that even after other factors are adjusted, women's agency has a strong influence on contraceptive outcomes. Contraceptive use levels are likely influenced by community‐level factors above and beyond individual‐level factors. Transformational factors, especially exogenous factors such as education and family planning programs, have independent and direct effects on contraceptive outcomes, at times even weakening or canceling out the effects of women's agency. Comprehensive contraceptive transition theory must reserve a central place for women's empowerment through agency and gender roles, particularly the ability of women and girls to make independent and free contraceptive choices. Relatedly, progress in contraceptive transition should be assessed according to not only contraceptive prevalence but also women's ability to use their preferred choice of methods for achieving reproductive rights.
{"title":"Revisiting Women's Empowerment and Contraception","authors":"Shireen J. Jejeebhoy, Zeba Sathar","doi":"10.1111/padr.12688","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12688","url":null,"abstract":"This essay explores and reviews the literature from low‐ and middle‐income countries on the pathways of influence between women's empowerment and reproductive outcomes, specially focusing on contraception, and points to some outstanding gaps. We adopt a framework that assesses the influence of contextual factors, notably kinship structures, and marriage systems, on women's empowerment and agency and other transformational factors affecting women's agency and gender roles and wielding direct and indirect influences on empowerment and contraceptive outcomes. The review of around 80 studies highlights that even after other factors are adjusted, women's agency has a strong influence on contraceptive outcomes. Contraceptive use levels are likely influenced by community‐level factors above and beyond individual‐level factors. Transformational factors, especially exogenous factors such as education and family planning programs, have independent and direct effects on contraceptive outcomes, at times even weakening or canceling out the effects of women's agency. Comprehensive contraceptive transition theory must reserve a central place for women's empowerment through agency and gender roles, particularly the ability of women and girls to make independent and free contraceptive choices. Relatedly, progress in contraceptive transition should be assessed according to not only contraceptive prevalence but also women's ability to use their preferred choice of methods for achieving reproductive rights.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"128 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142637132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jiao Yu, Kathryn Grace, Elizabeth Heger Boyle, Jude P. Mikal, Matthew Gunther, Devon Kristiansen
Women in Africa may have experienced conflicting pressures during the COVID-19 pandemic. While the unpredictable nature of the pandemic was prompting some women to delay pregnancies, the pandemic was potentially limiting access to reproductive health services due to supply shortages, fears of virus exposure, and mobility restrictions. In this study, we used longitudinal data from Kenya and Burkina Faso and applied a multilevel perspective to better understand the factors contributing to change or persistence in contraceptive use during the early months of the pandemic. We found a marginal increase in contraceptive uptake in the early days of the pandemic. Multilevel logistic regression results revealed that interpersonal trust and accurate knowledge of COVID-19 precautions were associated with a greater likelihood of initiating contraception. These factors appeared to have provided women with confidence to navigate the complicated COVID-19 landscape. At the same time, we observed a decrease in contraceptive use in regions with high COVID-19 cases, suggesting the virus was limiting access to contraception in some contexts. These findings highlighted the need for public health officials to ensure that women have the necessary knowledge and ability to safely access contraception during public health crises, when overall demand for contraception may be increasing.
{"title":"COVID-19 and Contraceptive Use in Two African Countries: Examining Conflicting Pressures on Women","authors":"Jiao Yu, Kathryn Grace, Elizabeth Heger Boyle, Jude P. Mikal, Matthew Gunther, Devon Kristiansen","doi":"10.1111/padr.12606","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12606","url":null,"abstract":"Women in Africa may have experienced conflicting pressures during the COVID-19 pandemic. While the unpredictable nature of the pandemic was prompting some women to delay pregnancies, the pandemic was potentially limiting access to reproductive health services due to supply shortages, fears of virus exposure, and mobility restrictions. In this study, we used longitudinal data from Kenya and Burkina Faso and applied a multilevel perspective to better understand the factors contributing to change or persistence in contraceptive use during the early months of the pandemic. We found a marginal increase in contraceptive uptake in the early days of the pandemic. Multilevel logistic regression results revealed that interpersonal trust and accurate knowledge of COVID-19 precautions were associated with a greater likelihood of initiating contraception. These factors appeared to have provided women with confidence to navigate the complicated COVID-19 landscape. At the same time, we observed a decrease in contraceptive use in regions with high COVID-19 cases, suggesting the virus was limiting access to contraception in some contexts. These findings highlighted the need for public health officials to ensure that women have the necessary knowledge and ability to safely access contraception during public health crises, when overall demand for contraception may be increasing.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139431747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
kirsten Stoebenau, Sangeetha Madhavan, Seungwan Kim, Carol Wainaina
Despite repeated calls for improved measures of marriage as a process in sub-Saharan Africa, large-scale surveys continue to rely on static marital status. As a result, there is an incomplete understanding of the effects of marriage on outcomes of interest. We use qualitative and survey data from a longitudinal study of 1,203 young mothers residing in informal settlements of Nairobi, Kenya, to (1) describe the development of an innovative measure of union formalization (UF) defined as the steps through which a union attains social legitimacy; (2) compare UF with a conventional current marital status measure; (3) examine the distribution of UF steps across union history; and (4) examine the sequence and timing of pregnancy and childbearing within the UF process. We find UF steps indicative of both increasing individualization of marriage and the ongoing importance of kin involvement hold meaning. We demonstrate extensive heterogeneity in the sequence and extent of UF steps completed and interrogate the classification of premarital childbearing using sequence analysis. We argue that measuring UF is feasible and necessary for the next generation of family demography in Africa; UF measures facilitate understanding the linkages among family dynamics, health, and social stratification within the context of ongoing socioeconomic change.
{"title":"Measuring Union Formalization for a New Generation of Family Demography: A Case Study from Urban Kenya","authors":"kirsten Stoebenau, Sangeetha Madhavan, Seungwan Kim, Carol Wainaina","doi":"10.1111/padr.12601","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12601","url":null,"abstract":"Despite repeated calls for improved measures of marriage as a process in sub-Saharan Africa, large-scale surveys continue to rely on static marital status. As a result, there is an incomplete understanding of the effects of marriage on outcomes of interest. We use qualitative and survey data from a longitudinal study of 1,203 young mothers residing in informal settlements of Nairobi, Kenya, to (1) describe the development of an innovative measure of union formalization (UF) defined as the steps through which a union attains social legitimacy; (2) compare UF with a conventional current marital status measure; (3) examine the distribution of UF steps across union history; and (4) examine the sequence and timing of pregnancy and childbearing within the UF process. We find UF steps indicative of both increasing individualization of marriage and the ongoing importance of kin involvement hold meaning. We demonstrate extensive heterogeneity in the sequence and extent of UF steps completed and interrogate the classification of premarital childbearing using sequence analysis. We argue that measuring UF is feasible and necessary for the next generation of family demography in Africa; UF measures facilitate understanding the linkages among family dynamics, health, and social stratification within the context of ongoing socioeconomic change.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139400756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The COVID-19 pandemic was accompanied by social and economic changes previously associated with fertility delay and reduction, sparking widespread discussion of a “baby bust” in the United States. We examine fertility trends using restricted vital statistics data from California, a diverse population of 40 million, contributing 12 percent of U.S. births. Using time series models that account for longer-run fertility trends, we observe modest, short-term reductions in births from mid-2020 through early 2021. Birth counts in subsequent months matched or even eased the pace of fertility decline since the 2008 recession and are unlikely a function of the pandemic alone. Responses to the pandemic were heterogeneous. Fertility declined markedly among the foreign-born population, largely driven by changes in net migration. Among the U.S.-born population, the short-term pandemic-attributable reductions were largest among older, highly educated people, suggesting mechanisms of fertility reduction disparately accessible to those with the most resources. We find no evidence of a strong population fertility response to the pandemic's accompanying employment shock, providing additional evidence of a growing divide between macroeconomic conditions and fertility patterns in the United States.
{"title":"Fertility in a Pandemic: Evidence from California","authors":"Jenna Nobles, Alison Gemmill, Sungsik Hwang, Florencia Torche","doi":"10.1111/padr.12591","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12591","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic was accompanied by social and economic changes previously associated with fertility delay and reduction, sparking widespread discussion of a “baby bust” in the United States. We examine fertility trends using restricted vital statistics data from California, a diverse population of 40 million, contributing 12 percent of U.S. births. Using time series models that account for longer-run fertility trends, we observe modest, short-term reductions in births from mid-2020 through early 2021. Birth counts in subsequent months matched or even eased the pace of fertility decline since the 2008 recession and are unlikely a function of the pandemic alone. Responses to the pandemic were heterogeneous. Fertility declined markedly among the foreign-born population, largely driven by changes in net migration. Among the U.S.-born population, the short-term pandemic-attributable reductions were largest among older, highly educated people, suggesting mechanisms of fertility reduction disparately accessible to those with the most resources. We find no evidence of a strong population fertility response to the pandemic's accompanying employment shock, providing additional evidence of a growing divide between macroeconomic conditions and fertility patterns in the United States.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"42 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138823263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using data from the British Household Panel Study and the UK Household Longitudinal Study (1992–2019), this study investigates the impacts of partnership and parenthood on women's and men's paid work and unpaid work time and how these impacts have changed in the last three decades in Great Britain. We applied two fixed-effect models—one conventional, one novel—with individual constants and slopes to account for the selection and longitudinal changes in time use. We found that the gender-traditionalizing effect of partnership on the use of time has weakened over the years. Marriage did not affect women's and men's paid work time, and since the 2010s, marriage no longer affect women's and men's time spent on housework differently. However, motherhood continues to reduce women's paid work time substantially, and the extent of this impact has remained unchanged over the previous three decades. Partnership and parenthood have resulted in minor changes to men's paid work and unpaid work time; the extent of their effects has likewise remained modest over the previous three decades. Our findings suggest that in Britain, the gender revolution of the division of labor among parents has stalled, and family policies have not successfully increased mothers’ paid work time and fathers’ unpaid work time.
{"title":"The Gendered Impacts of Partnership and Parenthood on Paid Work and Unpaid Work Time in Great Britain, 1992–2019","authors":"Muzhi Zhou, Man-Yee Kan","doi":"10.1111/padr.12593","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12593","url":null,"abstract":"Using data from the British Household Panel Study and the UK Household Longitudinal Study (1992–2019), this study investigates the impacts of partnership and parenthood on women's and men's paid work and unpaid work time and how these impacts have changed in the last three decades in Great Britain. We applied two fixed-effect models—one conventional, one novel—with individual constants and slopes to account for the selection and longitudinal changes in time use. We found that the gender-traditionalizing effect of partnership on the use of time has weakened over the years. Marriage did not affect women's and men's paid work time, and since the 2010s, marriage no longer affect women's and men's time spent on housework differently. However, motherhood continues to reduce women's paid work time substantially, and the extent of this impact has remained unchanged over the previous three decades. Partnership and parenthood have resulted in minor changes to men's paid work and unpaid work time; the extent of their effects has likewise remained modest over the previous three decades. Our findings suggest that in Britain, the gender revolution of the division of labor among parents has stalled, and family policies have not successfully increased mothers’ paid work time and fathers’ unpaid work time.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138578291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using data from the British Household Panel Study and the UK Household Longitudinal Study (1992–2019), this study investigates the impacts of partnership and parenthood on women's and men's paid work and unpaid work time and how these impacts have changed in the last three decades in Great Britain. We applied two fixed-effect models—one conventional, one novel—with individual constants and slopes to account for the selection and longitudinal changes in time use. We found that the gender-traditionalizing effect of partnership on the use of time has weakened over the years. Marriage did not affect women's and men's paid work time, and since the 2010s, marriage no longer affect women's and men's time spent on housework differently. However, motherhood continues to reduce women's paid work time substantially, and the extent of this impact has remained unchanged over the previous three decades. Partnership and parenthood have resulted in minor changes to men's paid work and unpaid work time; the extent of their effects has likewise remained modest over the previous three decades. Our findings suggest that in Britain, the gender revolution of the division of labor among parents has stalled, and family policies have not successfully increased mothers’ paid work time and fathers’ unpaid work time.
{"title":"The Gendered Impacts of Partnership and Parenthood on Paid Work and Unpaid Work Time in Great Britain, 1992–2019","authors":"Muzhi Zhou, Man-Yee Kan","doi":"10.1111/padr.12593","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12593","url":null,"abstract":"Using data from the British Household Panel Study and the UK Household Longitudinal Study (1992–2019), this study investigates the impacts of partnership and parenthood on women's and men's paid work and unpaid work time and how these impacts have changed in the last three decades in Great Britain. We applied two fixed-effect models—one conventional, one novel—with individual constants and slopes to account for the selection and longitudinal changes in time use. We found that the gender-traditionalizing effect of partnership on the use of time has weakened over the years. Marriage did not affect women's and men's paid work time, and since the 2010s, marriage no longer affect women's and men's time spent on housework differently. However, motherhood continues to reduce women's paid work time substantially, and the extent of this impact has remained unchanged over the previous three decades. Partnership and parenthood have resulted in minor changes to men's paid work and unpaid work time; the extent of their effects has likewise remained modest over the previous three decades. Our findings suggest that in Britain, the gender revolution of the division of labor among parents has stalled, and family policies have not successfully increased mothers’ paid work time and fathers’ unpaid work time.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"78 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138578303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study offers a comprehensive international overview of children from separated families across 13 countries, with an emphasis on the European context. We investigate changes in the number of children experiencing parental separation over birth cohorts (1960–1989) and changes in their social composition using data from the Generations and Gender Survey and official statistics. Results on absolute numbers highlight the impact of demographic shifts and complement previous research that focused on the relative risk of experiencing parental separation. We show that declining fertility rates have, in most countries, mitigated the rise in the number of children affected by increasing separation rates. Moreover, a large majority of contemporary children of separation are born to higher-educated mothers, demonstrating that the spread of education across parent cohorts outweighed educational risk gradients in shaping the socioeconomic background of children of separation. These findings improve our demographic understanding of children of separation and inform policy targeting family disruption as a social problem and allocating resources to address it.
{"title":"Children of Separation: An International Profile","authors":"Zuzana Zilincikova, Jan Skopek, Thomas Leopold","doi":"10.1111/padr.12592","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12592","url":null,"abstract":"This study offers a comprehensive international overview of children from separated families across 13 countries, with an emphasis on the European context. We investigate changes in the number of children experiencing parental separation over birth cohorts (1960–1989) and changes in their social composition using data from the Generations and Gender Survey and official statistics. Results on absolute numbers highlight the impact of demographic shifts and complement previous research that focused on the relative risk of experiencing parental separation. We show that declining fertility rates have, in most countries, mitigated the rise in the number of children affected by increasing separation rates. Moreover, a large majority of contemporary children of separation are born to higher-educated mothers, demonstrating that the spread of education across parent cohorts outweighed educational risk gradients in shaping the socioeconomic background of children of separation. These findings improve our demographic understanding of children of separation and inform policy targeting family disruption as a social problem and allocating resources to address it.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":" 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138492182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Christian Dudel, Yen-hsin Alice Cheng, Sebastian Klüsener
Age differences within couples are of considerable importance for the power relations between partners. These age differences become particularly relevant when couples transition to having a(nother) child, as such an event often results in a renegotiation of the gendered division of labor. Surprisingly, the literature on female empowerment and fertility postponement has so far paid little attention to parental age differences. This paper makes use of a new data set to present a demographic analysis of trends in parental age differences at childbirth in 15 high-income countries, covering a period in which all of these countries experienced changes in gender relations and fertility postponement. The general trends in rising mean ages at childbirth have evolved quite similarly among men and women. However, we demonstrate that these similarities hide previously unexplored and highly gendered disparities in parental age differences. Older mothers report much smaller mean parental age differences than younger mothers, and this age pattern among mothers has further polarized over time. By contrast, older fathers report larger parental age differences than younger fathers, while the disparities by age among fathers have not changed much over time. We discuss the relevance of our findings at both the individual and the societal level.
{"title":"Shifting Parental Age Differences in High-Income Countries: Insights and Implications","authors":"Christian Dudel, Yen-hsin Alice Cheng, Sebastian Klüsener","doi":"10.1111/padr.12597","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12597","url":null,"abstract":"Age differences within couples are of considerable importance for the power relations between partners. These age differences become particularly relevant when couples transition to having a(nother) child, as such an event often results in a renegotiation of the gendered division of labor. Surprisingly, the literature on female empowerment and fertility postponement has so far paid little attention to parental age differences. This paper makes use of a new data set to present a demographic analysis of trends in parental age differences at childbirth in 15 high-income countries, covering a period in which all of these countries experienced changes in gender relations and fertility postponement. The general trends in rising mean ages at childbirth have evolved quite similarly among men and women. However, we demonstrate that these similarities hide previously unexplored and highly gendered disparities in parental age differences. Older mothers report much smaller mean parental age differences than younger mothers, and this age pattern among mothers has further polarized over time. By contrast, older fathers report larger parental age differences than younger fathers, while the disparities by age among fathers have not changed much over time. We discuss the relevance of our findings at both the individual and the societal level.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":" 630","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138475802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
<p><i>An Epidemic of Uncertainty</i> is a multicourse gourmet meal for demographers. It is a book to settle into, chew on, and ruminate over with good friends. Empirically dense, theoretically rich, and analytically smart, the book moves the reader effortlessly between sophisticated quantitative analyses and everyday village and town life in and around Balaka, Malawi. And it brings demography, in all its interdisciplinary and conceptual splendor, to bear on the new subfield, Jenny Trinitapoli, the book's author, wants to usher in: Uncertainty Demography. The book examines how a generation of Malawian youth, who have lived their entire lives under the shadow of a severe HIV and AIDS epidemic, are transitioning to adulthood and navigating the stuff of life—beginning and ending relationships, having children, and for some, getting and living with HIV, and dying—from AIDS or giving birth or lightning strikes, among other causes of death.</p> <p>The book is based on an extraordinary and groundbreaking dataset, Tsologo La Thanzi (TLT: Healthy Futures in Chichewa), codesigned and led by Trinitapoli and her close collaborator Sara Yeatman. The impetus for the study was the observation that in Malawi, as in several other African countries, first sex, first marriage, and first birth unfold over a two-year period. Yet most major African surveys, most notably the Demographic and Health Surveys, collect cross-sectional data every five years, limiting analyses of the transition to adulthood. TLT (https://tsogololathanzi.uchicago.edu/, which is publicly available) is a longitudinal survey following respondents—young women and their male partners—over a 10-year period, from ages 15–25 to ages 25–35. The core survey included eight waves of data collected between 2009 and 2011, with each wave collected every four months. There was some attrition from the original sample—1505 respondents in 2009, to 1200 respondents in 2015 (80 percent of the original sample) to 1022 respondents in 2019 (68 percent) (p. 51). This led to a refresher sample collection in 2012 and 2019. Finally, there was follow-up data collection in 2015 and 2019. The survey, described in Chapter 2, is not just exceptional in its intensity but also in its creativity and methodological ambition. Data collection methods ranged from a standard survey questionnaire to biomarker data collection involving pregnancy and HIV testing, to card sorts, cognition tests, relationship scripts, literacy tests, vignettes, personal fieldnotes, first- and second-hand ethnographic observations, and a primary method for measuring uncertainty—bean counts. (Respondents could place up to 10 beans corresponding to their assessment of the probability of different event occurrences).</p> <p>At the heart of the book is the argument that individual uncertainty, and how people make sense of it, has consequences for their subsequent actions, and further that individual uncertainty aggregates and works as a powerful social force an
{"title":"Jenny Trinitapoli An Epidemic of Uncertainty: Navigating HIV and Young Adulthood in Malawi University of Chicago Press, 2023, 288 p., $30.00.","authors":"Sanyu A. Mojola","doi":"10.1111/padr.12599","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12599","url":null,"abstract":"<p><i>An Epidemic of Uncertainty</i> is a multicourse gourmet meal for demographers. It is a book to settle into, chew on, and ruminate over with good friends. Empirically dense, theoretically rich, and analytically smart, the book moves the reader effortlessly between sophisticated quantitative analyses and everyday village and town life in and around Balaka, Malawi. And it brings demography, in all its interdisciplinary and conceptual splendor, to bear on the new subfield, Jenny Trinitapoli, the book's author, wants to usher in: Uncertainty Demography. The book examines how a generation of Malawian youth, who have lived their entire lives under the shadow of a severe HIV and AIDS epidemic, are transitioning to adulthood and navigating the stuff of life—beginning and ending relationships, having children, and for some, getting and living with HIV, and dying—from AIDS or giving birth or lightning strikes, among other causes of death.</p>\u0000<p>The book is based on an extraordinary and groundbreaking dataset, Tsologo La Thanzi (TLT: Healthy Futures in Chichewa), codesigned and led by Trinitapoli and her close collaborator Sara Yeatman. The impetus for the study was the observation that in Malawi, as in several other African countries, first sex, first marriage, and first birth unfold over a two-year period. Yet most major African surveys, most notably the Demographic and Health Surveys, collect cross-sectional data every five years, limiting analyses of the transition to adulthood. TLT (https://tsogololathanzi.uchicago.edu/, which is publicly available) is a longitudinal survey following respondents—young women and their male partners—over a 10-year period, from ages 15–25 to ages 25–35. The core survey included eight waves of data collected between 2009 and 2011, with each wave collected every four months. There was some attrition from the original sample—1505 respondents in 2009, to 1200 respondents in 2015 (80 percent of the original sample) to 1022 respondents in 2019 (68 percent) (p. 51). This led to a refresher sample collection in 2012 and 2019. Finally, there was follow-up data collection in 2015 and 2019. The survey, described in Chapter 2, is not just exceptional in its intensity but also in its creativity and methodological ambition. Data collection methods ranged from a standard survey questionnaire to biomarker data collection involving pregnancy and HIV testing, to card sorts, cognition tests, relationship scripts, literacy tests, vignettes, personal fieldnotes, first- and second-hand ethnographic observations, and a primary method for measuring uncertainty—bean counts. (Respondents could place up to 10 beans corresponding to their assessment of the probability of different event occurrences).</p>\u0000<p>At the heart of the book is the argument that individual uncertainty, and how people make sense of it, has consequences for their subsequent actions, and further that individual uncertainty aggregates and works as a powerful social force an","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":" 632","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138475800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
<p>In 2023, the Earth experienced unprecedented high temperatures and endured the hottest summer documented since 1880. The extreme temperatures coincided with the publication of Jeff Goodell's <i>The Heat Will Kill You First: Life and Death on a Scorched Planet</i>. The book is essential and accessible reading on the dangers presented by heat for human populations, a guide to the actions needed to reduce these risks, and an inspiration for further research into the implications of global warming.</p> <p>Goodell is a renowned climate journalist who has written extensively on the topic of climate change, including earlier books on the coal mining industry, climate mitigation, geoengineering, and rising sea levels. In <i>The Heat Will Kill You First</i>, Goodell turns his attention to heat waves, aiming to “convince you to think about heat in a different way” (p. 19). Goodell begins by describing how heat is “invisible” compared with other environmental disasters such as floods, hurricanes, and earthquakes. Those events are sudden and traumatizing and leave a durable mark on the territory and community. While other natural disasters are given names—to support documentation, social memory, and record-keeping—heat waves are unnamed and are sometimes even seen positively, as holiday weather. Despite its relative invisibility compared with other disasters, heat is responsible for the highest yearly death toll attributable to an environmental disaster in some countries. The human thermoregulatory system can fail when exposed to high temperatures for a prolonged time, leading to hyperthermia, heatstroke, and death. Through multiple real-life examples, Goodell shows how heat is a pervasive force that infiltrates homes, exploits vulnerabilities, and proves especially detrimental for those unable to shield themselves.</p> <p>Goodell pays particular attention to how the impact of heat waves exacerbates social inequalities. For instance, the coexistence of medical conditions such as cardiorespiratory disease or diabetes reduces peoples’ ability to thermoregulate during heat waves. The prevalence of such conditions is a major factor explaining the higher death toll caused by extreme heat in older adults. Goodell shows that age is not the only factor determining increased health risks during a heat wave. For people at younger ages, heat waves remain a major health threat, in particular for those who downplay its risks and do not take precautions, and for those who cannot afford air conditioning or insulation. Socioeconomic status and employment conditions affect the risks posed to individuals by a heat wave. For example, Goodell describes the high exposure of agricultural workers to heat waves and the necessity of adaptation measures to avoid fatalities. Such measures vary in their accessibility or availability creating inequalities in this sector.</p> <p>Goodell dedicates ample space to the subject of adaptation to heat and the limits of such measures. One inf
2023年，地球经历了前所未有的高温，经历了自1880年以来最热的夏天。极端气温恰逢杰夫·古德尔的《高温首先会杀死你:焦化星球上的生与死》出版。这本书是关于热量给人类带来的危险的基本和易于理解的读物，是减少这些风险所需行动的指南，并为进一步研究全球变暖的影响提供了灵感。古德尔是一位著名的气候记者，他撰写了大量关于气候变化的文章，包括早期关于煤炭采矿业、气候减缓、地球工程和海平面上升的书籍。在《高温会先杀死你》一书中，古德尔将注意力转向热浪，旨在“说服你以不同的方式思考高温”(第19页)。古德尔首先描述了与洪水、飓风和地震等其他环境灾害相比，高温是如何“看不见”的。这些事件是突然的，创伤性的，在领土和社区留下了持久的印记。当其他自然灾害被命名时——为了支持文献记录、社会记忆和记录保存——热浪没有命名，有时甚至被正面看待，作为假日天气。尽管与其他灾害相比，它相对不显眼，但在一些国家，每年因环境灾害造成的死亡人数最高。人体体温调节系统在长时间暴露在高温下时可能失灵，导致体温过高、中暑和死亡。通过多个现实生活中的例子，古德尔展示了热量是如何渗透到家庭中，利用漏洞，并证明对那些无法保护自己的人尤其有害的。古德尔特别关注热浪是如何加剧社会不平等的。例如，心血管疾病或糖尿病等疾病的共存会降低人们在热浪中调节体温的能力。这种情况的普遍存在是解释老年人因极端高温而死亡人数较高的一个主要因素。古德尔表示，年龄并不是决定热浪期间健康风险增加的唯一因素。对于年龄较小的人来说，热浪仍然是一个主要的健康威胁，特别是对于那些低估其风险和不采取预防措施的人，以及那些买不起空调或隔热材料的人。社会经济地位和就业条件影响热浪对个人构成的风险。例如，古德尔描述了农业工人对热浪的高度暴露以及采取适应措施以避免死亡的必要性。这些措施的可及性或可用性各不相同，造成了该部门的不平等。古德尔用大量篇幅论述了适应高温的问题以及这些措施的局限性。其中一个内容丰富的章节围绕着空调的发明和广泛采用展开，尤其是在美国。空调可以让那些买得起空调的人从炎热的气温中解脱出来，但这可能会加剧温暖地区健康和死亡率的不平等。此外，空调并不是一个完整的解决方案。在长时间的高温天气和空调的广泛使用期间，电网线路承受着很高的压力，一旦出现故障，可能会使整个城市瘫痪。古德尔在书中讨论的其他适应性措施与城市在日益城市化和日益炎热的世界中面临的挑战有关。城市热岛的形成使城市处于危险之中，加剧了城乡在健康方面的不平等。城市热岛是由于有限的植被、非反射表面、城市峡谷效应和人类活动等因素导致城市热量释放减少，使城市比拥有更多绿地和水体的农村地区更温暖。书中讨论的一些解决方案与城市绿化和屋顶白色粉刷有关，但古德尔描述了这些创新如何面临一些障碍。城市绿化可以有效地提供荫凉和减少热岛，但在缺水和炎热的地区具有挑战性。在建筑物的建筑特征不易改变的历史中心，屋顶彩绘可能不适合。迁移模式也受到温度异常的严重影响。古德尔描述了一种矛盾的现象，这种现象与美国国内移民人数的增加有关，这些移民进入了气候风险较高的地区。特别是，受热浪和海平面上升严重影响的南方几个地区，随着人们退休到更温暖的气候，人口增长幅度更大。不断增长的人口和不断升级的气候风险可能在未来对这些地区构成重大挑战。 相反，对于日益遭受气候变化后果的经济上处于不利地位的人来说，移民往往是逃避恶劣气候条件的最终解决办法，因为恶劣气候条件使农业等某些经济活动无法进行。与此同时，由于天气条件的恶化，迁徙路径变得越来越危险和不切实际。古德尔的书涵盖了人口学者特别关注的与热量和人类有关的三个主要主题:热浪日益普遍及其对人口结果的广泛影响;适应措施的重要性和复杂性;以及由于气候引发的挑战而扩大的现有社会人口不平等。近年来，关于热浪影响的学术研究越来越多。最近的一项研究表明，造成约7万人死亡的2003年欧洲灾难性热浪是一个重要的转折点，导致有关温度相关死亡率和发病率的研究增加(Campbell et al.， 2018)。2022年，热浪导致欧洲约6万人死亡，这表明热浪的影响仍然是致命的，这引发了人们对个人适应气温上升能力的担忧(Ballester et al.， 2023)。热浪的日益普遍使得研究气候变化对人口的影响尤为紧迫。古德尔为人口学者提供了新颖的视角，深入研究了现有人口研究中相对未被探索的话题。他强调了气候变化如何创造有利于疾病媒介(如蚊子和蜱虫)传播的环境。这可能导致登革热、莱姆病和疟疾等疾病的更广泛分布，对公共卫生和人类死亡率构成新的挑战。此外，书中强调的一个重要研究领域是气候变化归因，旨在了解特定的环境灾害是由自然气候变化引起的，还是由人类活动和温室气体排放决定的。需要对这一主题进行更多的研究，以补充现有的研究，计算碳的死亡成本(二氧化碳排放造成的死亡人数)(Bressler, 2021)和估算由人类主导的气候变化决定的与热有关的死亡负担(Vicedo-Cabrera等人，2021)。必须进一步研究人为气候变化的人口和健康成本，以及减缓气候变化以限制这种影响的潜力。虽然古德尔的书讨论了高温对迁徙、死亡率和发病率的影响，但它并没有深入探讨高温对生育率、围产期和孕产妇健康的影响。与死亡率相比，关于热量对这些结果影响的研究更为有限。尽管最近人们对热对生育能力和生育结果的影响感兴趣，但关于这一主题仍有许多未解决的问题(Barreca等人，2018;Chersich et al.， 2020;豪伊杜,豪伊杜2022)。温度与生育能力之间的联系机制仍在争论中，这对于理解在一个低生育率和人口老龄化的世界里，温度如何影响生殖健康和行为至关重要。这本书还可以更深入地探讨多种环境灾害同时影响人口时对公共卫生和人口动态的复合影响。这种复合影响在热浪与野火或洪水事件同时发生的地区尤为明显，可能会放大对公共卫生结果的影响。这本公共科学书籍读起来毫不费力，以新闻风格写成，将科学证据与遭受高温负面影响的个人的生活经历相结合。每一章都是一个独立的故事，深入讲述了高温如何影响生活的一个特定方面，从农业工作和媒介传播疾病的传播，到在沸腾的城市中生存和空调的发明，使本书成为一本容易参考的书。因此，它为普通大众和专家读者提供了一个深刻的阅读，强调了地球上人类生命面临的紧迫挑战。正如这本书引人入胜的标题所反映的那样，高温的普遍影响将不可避免地触及我们所有人，迫使我们努力解决其含义。
{"title":"Jeff Goodell The Heat Will Kill You First: Life and Death on a Scorched Planet Little Brown and Company, 2023, 400 p., $29.00","authors":"Risto Conte Keivabu","doi":"10.1111/padr.12598","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12598","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In 2023, the Earth experienced unprecedented high temperatures and endured the hottest summer documented since 1880. The extreme temperatures coincided with the publication of Jeff Goodell's <i>The Heat Will Kill You First: Life and Death on a Scorched Planet</i>. The book is essential and accessible reading on the dangers presented by heat for human populations, a guide to the actions needed to reduce these risks, and an inspiration for further research into the implications of global warming.</p>\u0000<p>Goodell is a renowned climate journalist who has written extensively on the topic of climate change, including earlier books on the coal mining industry, climate mitigation, geoengineering, and rising sea levels. In <i>The Heat Will Kill You First</i>, Goodell turns his attention to heat waves, aiming to “convince you to think about heat in a different way” (p. 19). Goodell begins by describing how heat is “invisible” compared with other environmental disasters such as floods, hurricanes, and earthquakes. Those events are sudden and traumatizing and leave a durable mark on the territory and community. While other natural disasters are given names—to support documentation, social memory, and record-keeping—heat waves are unnamed and are sometimes even seen positively, as holiday weather. Despite its relative invisibility compared with other disasters, heat is responsible for the highest yearly death toll attributable to an environmental disaster in some countries. The human thermoregulatory system can fail when exposed to high temperatures for a prolonged time, leading to hyperthermia, heatstroke, and death. Through multiple real-life examples, Goodell shows how heat is a pervasive force that infiltrates homes, exploits vulnerabilities, and proves especially detrimental for those unable to shield themselves.</p>\u0000<p>Goodell pays particular attention to how the impact of heat waves exacerbates social inequalities. For instance, the coexistence of medical conditions such as cardiorespiratory disease or diabetes reduces peoples’ ability to thermoregulate during heat waves. The prevalence of such conditions is a major factor explaining the higher death toll caused by extreme heat in older adults. Goodell shows that age is not the only factor determining increased health risks during a heat wave. For people at younger ages, heat waves remain a major health threat, in particular for those who downplay its risks and do not take precautions, and for those who cannot afford air conditioning or insulation. Socioeconomic status and employment conditions affect the risks posed to individuals by a heat wave. For example, Goodell describes the high exposure of agricultural workers to heat waves and the necessity of adaptation measures to avoid fatalities. Such measures vary in their accessibility or availability creating inequalities in this sector.</p>\u0000<p>Goodell dedicates ample space to the subject of adaptation to heat and the limits of such measures. One inf","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":" 631","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138475801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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