Climate change effects on the worldwide distribution of Brevipalpus californicus and Brevipalpus yothersi

Abstract

Climate change is increasing the presence of suitable areas for some agricultural pests. Research has therefore focused on evaluating the impact of climate change on their potential distribution. The objective of this paper was to estimate and contrast the present and future potential distribution of the citrus pests Brevipalpus yothersi and Brevipalpus californicus under climate change scenarios SSP245 and SSP585 for the years 2050 and 2070, worldwide, using eight general circulation models (GCMs). The distribution models were generated with MaxEnt, using georeferenced data of species presence and uncorrelated bioclimatic variables. When considering the union of the areas predicted by the GCMs, there is an increase in suitable areas for the two species relative to the present suitability. The highest increase in suitable area was estimated for B. yothersi. The regions that presented the best conditions for the two Citrus leprosis virus vectors were located in America, Africa, and Australia.