{"title":"Projecting short to medium-term effects of carbon emissions trading on Serbia's GDP","authors":"B. Pavlović , N. Trtica","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2024.101855","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents an approach to assess the short to medium-term effects of the Emissions Trading System (ETS), an economic and climate policy instrument aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on GDP from the expenditure side. The analysis focuses on Serbia's electricity sector, which relies heavily on lignite-based production dominated by state-owned enterprises. The obtained projections suggest that in the short term, the introduction of an ETS may lead to slower GDP growth compared to official forecasts. However, by 2030, accelerated growth is observed, eventually converging with and even surpassing the projected growth in scenarios characterized by higher investments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 101855"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Utilities Policy","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957178724001498","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENERGY & FUELS","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
This paper presents an approach to assess the short to medium-term effects of the Emissions Trading System (ETS), an economic and climate policy instrument aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on GDP from the expenditure side. The analysis focuses on Serbia's electricity sector, which relies heavily on lignite-based production dominated by state-owned enterprises. The obtained projections suggest that in the short term, the introduction of an ETS may lead to slower GDP growth compared to official forecasts. However, by 2030, accelerated growth is observed, eventually converging with and even surpassing the projected growth in scenarios characterized by higher investments.
期刊介绍：
Utilities Policy is deliberately international, interdisciplinary, and intersectoral. Articles address utility trends and issues in both developed and developing economies. Authors and reviewers come from various disciplines, including economics, political science, sociology, law, finance, accounting, management, and engineering. Areas of focus include the utility and network industries providing essential electricity, natural gas, water and wastewater, solid waste, communications, broadband, postal, and public transportation services.
Utilities Policy invites submissions that apply various quantitative and qualitative methods. Contributions are welcome from both established and emerging scholars as well as accomplished practitioners. Interdisciplinary, comparative, and applied works are encouraged. Submissions to the journal should have a clear focus on governance, performance, and/or analysis of public utilities with an aim toward informing the policymaking process and providing recommendations as appropriate. Relevant topics and issues include but are not limited to industry structures and ownership, market design and dynamics, economic development, resource planning, system modeling, accounting and finance, infrastructure investment, supply and demand efficiency, strategic management and productivity, network operations and integration, supply chains, adaptation and flexibility, service-quality standards, benchmarking and metrics, benefit-cost analysis, behavior and incentives, pricing and demand response, economic and environmental regulation, regulatory performance and impact, restructuring and deregulation, and policy institutions.
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