Utilities Policy最新文献

英文中文

Enlarged scars: The effects of economic policy uncertainty on electricity accessibility and urban-rural disparity 扩大的伤疤经济政策的不确定性对电力可及性和城乡差别的影响

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101852

Congyu Zhao , Xuan Zhai , Miaomiao Tao , Shuai Che

Using a comprehensive dataset spanning 22 countries from 2000 to 2020, this study investigates the influence of economic policy uncertainty on electricity accessibility and the urban-rural gap in accessibility, employing a fixed-effect model. Our research provides several new contributions to the existing body of knowledge. First, heightened economic policy uncertainty is linked to reduced electricity access in both urban and rural areas, and it also correlates with an increase in the disparity between these regions. Second, the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and electricity access is not uniform across different levels of accessibility. Specifically, a negative relationship is evident when accessibility is low, but this effect becomes insignificant when access levels surpass the median (50th quantile). While the positive association between economic policy uncertainty and the urban-rural gap is present, it does not intensify as the disparity widens. Third, a mechanism analysis reveals that policy uncertainty contributes to government corruption, further hindering electricity access and deepening regional inequalities. The analysis also highlights how economic policy uncertainty can exacerbate corruption, compounding access issues. Finally, green finance emerges as a mitigating factor, alleviating some of the adverse effects of policy uncertainty. These results provide a deeper understanding of the intricate dynamics at play and suggest that carefully crafted policies can help offset the negative consequences of economic policy uncertainty.

本研究利用 2000 年至 2020 年横跨 22 个国家的综合数据集，采用固定效应模型研究了经济政策不确定性对电力可及性和可及性城乡差距的影响。我们的研究为现有知识体系做出了多项新贡献。首先，经济政策不确定性的增加与城市和农村地区电力可及性的降低有关，也与这些地区之间差距的扩大有关。其次，经济政策不确定性与用电普及率之间的关系在不同的用电普及率水平上并不一致。具体而言，当可获得性较低时，两者之间明显存在负相关关系，但当可获得性超过中位数（50 分位数）时，这种影响就变得不明显了。虽然经济政策的不确定性与城乡差距之间存在正相关关系，但并没有随着差距的扩大而加剧。第三，机制分析表明，政策的不确定性助长了政府腐败，进一步阻碍了电力的普及，加深了地区间的不平等。分析还强调了经济政策的不确定性如何加剧腐败，使电力获取问题更加复杂。最后，绿色金融成为一个缓解因素，减轻了政策不确定性的一些不利影响。这些结果加深了人们对错综复杂的动态变化的理解，并表明精心制定的政策有助于抵消经济政策不确定性的负面影响。

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引用次数: 0

Pathways to a sustainable electricity sector in Kenya: Challenges and transformational factors 肯尼亚实现可持续电力部门的途径：挑战和转型因素

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101854

Maria Apergi , Laima Eicke , Andreas Goldthau , Jude Kurniawan , Esther Schuch , Silvia Weko

Which factors may enable a secure, affordable, and sustainable development of the Kenyan energy system? The present study aims to understand how the country's energy system could be structured in 2050, to unravel the main challenges, and to identify critical leverage points for policy action. To this end, we designed energy scenarios for Kenya using cross-impact balance and succession analysis, drawing extensively from expert judgments. The results highlight the importance of improving the quality of the grid, further reforming the electricity market structure, encouraging more competition, and promoting decentralization as the main leverage points for ensuring a secure and sustainable energy future.

哪些因素可以使肯尼亚能源系统实现安全、负担得起和可持续发展？本研究旨在了解 2050 年肯尼亚能源系统的结构，揭示主要挑战，并确定政策行动的关键杠杆点。为此，我们利用交叉影响平衡和继承分析，广泛借鉴专家判断，为肯尼亚设计了能源情景。结果凸显了提高电网质量、进一步改革电力市场结构、鼓励更多竞争以及促进权力下放的重要性，这些都是确保未来能源安全和可持续发展的主要杠杆点。

引用次数: 0

Are electricity prices and cross-subsidies a barrier to decarbonising India's steel industry? 电价和交叉补贴是否是印度钢铁业去碳化的障碍？

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101853

M. Åhman, M. Arens

The main options for deep decarbonisation of primary steel production are to continue using coal and employ carbon capture and storage (CCS) or to change the production process to direct reduction by utilizing hydrogen produced from renewable energy resources. In India, the world's second-largest steel producer, a shift to renewables is inhibited by the current power market regime, which includes a complex cross-subsidy scheme. We calculate the cost of energy and the amount of cross-subsidies paid by the Indian steel industry, analyse the effects of the cross-subsidies on deep decarbonisation options, and discuss the barriers to their removal.

初级钢铁生产深度脱碳的主要选择是继续使用煤炭并采用碳捕集与封存技术（CCS），或者利用可再生能源产生的氢气将生产工艺改为直接还原。在世界第二大钢铁生产国印度，向可再生能源的转变受到现行电力市场机制的阻碍，其中包括复杂的交叉补贴计划。我们计算了印度钢铁行业的能源成本和交叉补贴金额，分析了交叉补贴对深度脱碳方案的影响，并讨论了取消交叉补贴的障碍。

引用次数: 0

Projecting short to medium-term effects of carbon emissions trading on Serbia's GDP 预测碳排放交易对塞尔维亚国内生产总值的中短期影响

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101855

B. Pavlović , N. Trtica

This paper presents an approach to assess the short to medium-term effects of the Emissions Trading System (ETS), an economic and climate policy instrument aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on GDP from the expenditure side. The analysis focuses on Serbia's electricity sector, which relies heavily on lignite-based production dominated by state-owned enterprises. The obtained projections suggest that in the short term, the introduction of an ETS may lead to slower GDP growth compared to official forecasts. However, by 2030, accelerated growth is observed, eventually converging with and even surpassing the projected growth in scenarios characterized by higher investments.

排放交易体系（ETS）是一项旨在减少温室气体排放的经济和气候政策工具，本文提出了一种从支出方面评估排放交易体系对国内生产总值中短期影响的方法。分析的重点是塞尔维亚的电力部门，该部门严重依赖国有企业主导的褐煤生产。预测结果表明，在短期内，与官方预测相比，引入排放交易计划可能会导致国内生产总值增长放缓。然而，到 2030 年，增长速度会加快，最终与投资较高的方案中的预计增长趋同，甚至超过。

引用次数: 0

Breaking the culture of nonpayment: A qualitative analysis of utility intervention in Pakistan 打破欠费文化：对巴基斯坦公用事业干预的定性分析

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101850

Husnain Fateh Ahmad , Ayesha Ali , Robyn C. Meeks , Victoria Plutshack , Zhenxuan Wang , Javed Younas

Reliable electricity access is vital to economic growth, though financial challenges can undermine service quality. In Karachi, Pakistan, the local utility intervened to reduce losses and improve bill revenue recovery. The intervention increased budgets to improve infrastructure, provided staff incentives, and expanded customer engagement activities. We employ qualitative techniques to study managers' and customers’ perceptions of the intervention and the mechanisms driving its effects. While managers credit the multi-pronged nature of the intervention for increasing trust and mitigating the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, customers report no increase in trust and focus primarily on infrastructure improvements.

可靠的电力供应对经济增长至关重要，但财务挑战可能会影响服务质量。在巴基斯坦卡拉奇，当地电力公司采取了干预措施，以减少损失并提高账单收入回收率。干预措施增加了改善基础设施的预算，提供了员工激励措施，并扩大了客户参与活动。我们采用定性技术研究了管理人员和客户对干预措施的看法以及产生干预效果的机制。管理者认为多管齐下的干预措施提高了信任度，减轻了 COVID-19 大流行的影响，而客户则表示信任度没有提高，主要关注的是基础设施的改善。

引用次数: 0

The distributional effects of rural electrification on household welfare: Evidence from Senegal 农村电气化对家庭福利的分配效应：塞内加尔的证据

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101846

Kadoukpè Gildas Magbondé , Barry Reilly , Bridget Kauma

This study uses a cross-sectional dataset of 3215 rural Senegalese households from the 2018/19 Harmonized Survey on Households Living Standards to assess the distributional household welfare effects of electricity access. The paper conducts separate analyses for both on-grid and off-grid electricity access and uses an array of empirical strategies to compute the relevant effects. We find that household access to grid electricity is associated with increased food and non-food expenditures, while off-grid solar electricity is only associated with increased levels of the latter. In addition, access to grid electricity appears to impact household expenditures more than solar electricity, with the off-grid effect not detected at the top end of the non-food expenditure distribution. In contrast, on-grid electricity has a greater welfare impact on higher-income households. The results further suggest that access to solar electricity can reduce inequality in total non-food household expenditures more than on-grid electricity. The findings encourage consideration of policies designed to extend solar energy to the more remote rural areas to reduce inequality.

本研究利用 2018/19 年家庭生活水平统一调查中 3215 个塞内加尔农村家庭的横截面数据集，评估了通电对家庭福利分配的影响。本文对电网供电和离网供电分别进行了分析，并采用了一系列实证策略来计算相关效应。我们发现，家庭获得电网供电与食品和非食品支出的增加有关，而离网太阳能供电仅与后者支出的增加有关。此外，与太阳能发电相比，电网供电对家庭支出的影响似乎更大，在非食品支出分布的高端没有发现离网效应。相比之下，电网供电对高收入家庭的福利影响更大。研究结果进一步表明，与并网供电相比，使用太阳能发电更能减少非食品家庭总支出的不平等。研究结果鼓励考虑制定政策，将太阳能推广到更偏远的农村地区，以减少不平等现象。

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引用次数: 0

Capital structure decisions in the energy transition: Insights from Spain 能源转型中的资本结构决策：西班牙的启示

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101851

Cristobal Bistuer-Talavera , Joan Llobet-Dalmases , Dolors Plana-Erta , Jorge M. Uribe

The renewable energy transition depends heavily on capital structure decisions of energy firms. Most previous research has focused on the decisions of oil companies. This study investigates the financing of new investment in the Spanish renewable energy sector, including decisions about: i) equity versus debt, ii) short versus long-term debt, and iii) equity issuances versus retained earnings for new investment. Our analysis is based on data from over 22,000 energy firms from 2008 to 2021 and shows that these firms prefer debt over equity (more than 90% of changes in assets are financed through increasing debt) and have extended the term of the debt over the period studied (reaching a maximum of almost 73% long-term debt in 2021). The deployment of retained earnings is less usual than raising new equity capital. Our analysis points to a generalized use of project finance to support new investments. Policymakers should focus on increasing financing through equity and thus diversifying the financial risk of the energy transition. In addition, a supportive fiscal policy and a stable regulatory environment are desirable for achieving this goal.

可再生能源转型在很大程度上取决于能源公司的资本结构决策。以往的研究大多侧重于石油公司的决策。本研究调查了西班牙可再生能源行业新投资的融资情况，包括以下决策：i) 股权与债务；ii) 短期债务与长期债务；iii) 新投资的股权发行与留存收益。我们的分析基于 2008 年至 2021 年期间 22,000 多家能源企业的数据，结果表明，这些企业更倾向于债务而非股权（90% 以上的资产变化是通过增加债务融资的），并在研究期间延长了债务期限（2021 年达到最大值，近 73% 为长期债务）。与筹集新的权益资本相比，留存收益的调配并不常见。我们的分析表明，企业普遍使用项目融资来支持新投资。政策制定者应重视增加股权融资，从而分散能源转型的金融风险。此外，支持性的财政政策和稳定的监管环境也是实现这一目标的理想条件。

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引用次数: 0

The nexus of electricity infrastructure investment, household income, and carbon emissions in rural China 中国农村地区电力基础设施投资、家庭收入与碳排放之间的关系

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101849

Qi Tian , Tao Zhao , Rong Yuan

This study analyzes the nexus of electricity infrastructure investment (EII), rural household income, and household carbon emissions (HCEs) using panel data from China's 30 provinces from 2003 to 2020. Firstly, we consider the impact of EII on the direct HCEs (DHCEs) caused by the direct consumption of fossil fuels and investigate the mediating effect of income level and income variance. The empirical results show that the growth of EII reduces rural DHCEs through the transmission channels of income level, whereas income variance limits the negative relationship between EII and DHCEs. Then, we estimate the emissions embodied in household expenditure on goods and services of different income groups, that is, indirect HCEs (IHCEs), and develop a counterfactual scenario to assess the effects of EII on the total HCEs (the sum of DHCEs and IHCEs) in 2017. The scenario analysis indicates that without increased EII in 2017, the total national HCEs would increase by 0.9%, mainly due to the increased per capita HCEs of low-income groups (+11.6%). Besides, the total HCEs in ten provinces are influenced significantly by the change of income distribution driven by the change of EII, with Guangdong experiencing the largest decrease of HCEs (2.6 Mt) due to the movements of residents from the lower-income group to the lowest-income group. Thus, there is a trade-off between HCE reduction and poverty alleviation when developing EII in rural China.

本研究利用 2003-2020 年中国 30 个省份的面板数据，分析了电力基础设施投资（EII）、农村家庭收入和家庭碳排放（HCEs）之间的关系。首先，我们考虑了电力基础设施投资对化石燃料直接消费所导致的直接家庭碳排放（DHCEs）的影响，并研究了收入水平和收入差异的中介效应。实证结果表明，经济信息基础设施的增长通过收入水平的传导渠道减少了农村的直接高危排放，而收入差异则限制了经济信息基础设施与直接高危排放之间的负相关关系。然后，我们估算了不同收入群体在商品和服务方面的家庭支出所体现的排放量，即间接家庭经济支出（IHCEs），并制定了一个反事实情景，以评估 2017 年经济信息基础设施对总家庭经济支出（家庭商品和服务支出与间接家庭经济支出之和）的影响。情景分析表明，如果 2017 年的经济保险指数没有增加，全国的家庭经济支出总额将增加 0.9%，这主要是由于低收入群体的人均家庭经济支出增加（+11.6%）。此外，十个省份的 HCEs 总量受到 EII 变化带动的收入分配变化的显著影响，其中广东的 HCEs 减少最多（260 万），原因是居民从低收入群体向最低收入群体流动。因此，在中国农村发展经济信息基础设施时，需要在减少 HCE 和扶贫之间做出权衡。

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引用次数: 0

Data fraud in the carbon emissions trading market: A tripartite evolutionary game analysis from China 碳排放交易市场中的数据欺诈：来自中国的三方演化博弈分析

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101848

Yanbin Li , Chang Liu , Jiani Wang , Yuan Wang , Xiuqi Yang , Yun Li

Data fraud affects the carbon emissions trading market order. This paper constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model among environmental authorities, power generation enterprises, and third-party verification agencies; systematically analyzes the evolutionary laws and evolutionary stabilization strategies of the three parties; conducts simulation analysis and parameter impact analysis of four carbon emission accounting scenarios, explores the causes of data fraud and puts forward policy implications. The research can provide the theoretical basis for the Chinese government to improve the carbon emission regulation system and can also be used as a reference for other countries' carbon emission data quality control.

数据造假影响碳排放权交易市场秩序。本文构建了环保部门、发电企业和第三方核查机构三方的演化博弈模型，系统分析了三方的演化规律和演化稳定策略，对四种碳排放核算情景进行了仿真分析和参数影响分析，探讨了数据造假的成因，并提出了政策启示。该研究可为中国政府完善碳排放监管体系提供理论依据，也可为其他国家的碳排放数据质量控制提供参考。

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Performance benchmarking of European postal incumbents with TOPSIS and BMW-TOPSIS 利用 TOPSIS 和 BMW-TOPSIS 对欧洲邮政现有企业的绩效进行基准测试

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101845

Bojan Jovanović, Dragana Šarac, Nataša Čačić

Given the uncertain position and specific role of postal incumbents in Europe, creating a framework for mutual comparison is essential. In this regard, this study aims to develop a methodology that will compare their relevant performance. On the other hand, management and host countries can be promptly alerted if something hinders postal incumbents from providing optimal performance. Two methods have been applied: the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and its variation, Best-Middle-Worst (BMW)-TOPSIS, on a sample of 16 incumbents from the EU and candidate countries. The results indicate that a finer adjustment is achieved in terms of ranking by the BMW-TOPSIS method. An open question regarding the selection of postal incumbents is whether it is necessary to strictly adhere to the rule that the number of their attributes is less than or equal to half of the attributes of the Middle point. The example of Latvia shows that if an alternative contains values from which the Best point is composed, an exception can be made in the selection. The development of the Middle point provides an opportunity for a more in-depth analysis, especially in cases where the values of the criteria differ significantly. Unlike classical TOPSIS, it offers a clearer visualization that supports the understanding of postal incumbents and their performance.

鉴于欧洲邮政运营商的不确定地位和特殊作用，建立一个相互比较的框架至关重要。为此，本研究旨在制定一种方法，对它们的相关绩效进行比较。另一方面，如果有什么因素阻碍了邮政企业提供最佳服务，管理部门和东道国可以及时得到提醒。在对欧盟和候选国的 16 个邮政企业进行抽样调查时，采用了两种方法："与理想方案相似度排序技术"（TOPSIS）及其变体 "最佳-中间-最差（BMW）-TOPSIS"。结果表明，BMW-TOPSIS 方法在排序方面实现了更精细的调整。关于邮政现任者的选择，一个尚未解决的问题是，是否有必要严格遵守其属性数小于或等于中间点属性数一半的规则。拉脱维亚的例子表明，如果一个备选方案包含了由最佳点组成的值，那么在选择时就可以破例。中间点的发展为更深入的分析提供了机会，特别是在标准值相差很大的情况下。与传统的 TOPSIS 方法不同的是，它提供了一种更清晰的可视化方法，有助于了解邮政现任者及其表现。

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