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Command and control: A systematic approach to demand-side flexibility 命令和控制:需求侧灵活性的系统方法
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102137
Fouad El Gohary
This policy note presents a case for shifting demand-side flexibility (DSF) policy from a market-based, individualist approach to a system-level, command-and-control framework. DSF could play a crucial role in maintaining grid stability, integrating variable renewable energy sources, and reducing infrastructure costs. The prevailing framework for fostering DSF overwhelmingly relies on price signals and assumes that consumers are rational, price-responsive agents who are both willing and able to optimize electricity use. Empirical evidence suggests that this approach has yielded limited results. The proposed model emphasizes centralized flexibility management, regulatory mandates, and automation to ensure reliability and scalability. Central to this model is the establishment of a Flexibility Coordinator responsible for two primary tasks: coordination—identifying system-wide grid needs, mapping users’ flexibility potential, and aligning these to generate an effective set of target measures; and execution—applying a set of targeted regulatory measures focused on mandating and “embedding” flexibility across the grid while minimizing user disruption and safeguarding comfort and preferences. These measures could include mandating automated demand-response functionality for residential heat pumps and EV chargers, requiring supermarkets to couple cooling loads with automated controls, and enforcing waste heat recovery in industrial processes. By adopting a more assertive and systematic approach, a range of flexibility measures—potentially imperceptible to users—can be effectively implemented, creating a more reliable, adaptable, and scalable DSF model that is essential for a successful energy transition.
本政策说明提出了将需求侧灵活性(DSF)政策从基于市场的个人主义方法转变为系统级的命令和控制框架的案例。DSF可以在维持电网稳定、整合可变可再生能源和降低基础设施成本方面发挥关键作用。促进DSF的主流框架绝大多数依赖于价格信号,并假设消费者是理性的,对价格敏感的代理人,他们愿意并且能够优化电力使用。经验证据表明,这种方法产生的效果有限。提出的模型强调集中的灵活性管理、法规要求和自动化,以确保可靠性和可伸缩性。这一模式的核心是设立一个灵活性协调员,负责两项主要任务:协调-确定全系统的网格需求,绘制用户的灵活性潜力,并使这些需求一致,以产生一套有效的目标措施;执行——应用一套有针对性的监管措施,侧重于强制和“嵌入”整个电网的灵活性,同时最大限度地减少用户干扰,保障舒适和偏好。这些措施可能包括强制要求住宅热泵和电动汽车充电器具有自动化需求响应功能,要求超市将冷却负荷与自动化控制相结合,并在工业过程中强制实施废热回收。通过采用一种更加自信和系统的方法,可以有效地实施一系列用户可能无法察觉的灵活性措施,从而创建一个更可靠、适应性更强、可扩展的DSF模型,这对成功的能源转型至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Agent-based modeling to assess the effects of time-of-use water tariffs on social equity 以主体为基础的模型,评估用水时收费对社会公平的影响
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102130
Cade Karrenberg , Eric Edwards , Emily Zechman Berglund
Time-of-use (TOU) tariffs charge higher prices for water used during designated peak periods, encouraging users to shift their water use to off-peak periods. Research in electricity markets has shown that TOU tariffs can have adverse effects on households with low incomes or who lack access to technology, raising equity concerns. This research assesses the differential impact of TOU tariffs on heterogeneous water users using an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach. The ABM is applied to a case study to simulate the response of a community of water users to TOU tariffs and assess the equity impacts of the household cost of water under various scenarios. Findings suggest households with characteristics consistent with disadvantaged groups, including lower incomes, high density, and limited access to technology, may experience an increase in water costs under TOU rates.
分时电价(TOU)在指定的高峰时段收取更高的水费,鼓励用户将用水转移到非高峰时段。电力市场的研究表明,分时电价可能对低收入家庭或无法获得技术的家庭产生不利影响,引发了对公平的担忧。本研究使用基于主体的模型(ABM)方法评估了分时电价对异质用水户的差异影响。ABM应用于一个案例研究,模拟一个用水社区对分时电价的反应,并评估不同情景下家庭用水成本对公平的影响。研究结果表明,与弱势群体特征一致的家庭,包括收入较低、人口密度高、获得技术的机会有限,在分时电价下可能会经历水费增加。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding the future dynamics of renewable energy social Acceptance: Scenarios for Iran 了解可再生能源社会接受度的未来动态:伊朗的情景
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102135
Reza Hafezi , Zohreh Rahimirad , Ali Asghar Sadabadi , David A. Wood
Citizen participation is a key factor in the growth of renewable energy. This study explores how that participation might shape Iran's energy transition to 2040 by using a qualitative scenario method grounded in a matrix-based uncertainty analysis. A literature review and a focus group generated 51 potential drivers. A national panel (n = 61) rated each driver on importance and predictability (1–9), making it possible to identify key uncertainties and assumed trends. Findings show that social participation in renewable energy depends mainly on three uncertainties: (1) energy governance (centralized ↔ decentralized), (2) the energy-economy (cost-reflective pricing ↔ subsidized energy), and (3) infrastructure and asset ownership (citizen/co-ownership ↔ predominantly public). Based on the two most orthogonal axes, four internally consistent scenarios were developed. A follow-on policy panel (n = 21) stress-tested interventions, prioritizing nine policy levers. Economic and financial measures ranked highest, underlining that pricing reform and investment risk reduction are critical for achieving a socially accepted renewable energy transition. The study offers a transparent, reproducible pathway—from driver identification to scenario design and policy testing—tailored to Iran's context but adaptable to other settings facing similar uncertainties.
公民参与是可再生能源发展的关键因素。本研究通过基于矩阵不确定性分析的定性情景方法,探讨了这种参与可能如何影响伊朗到2040年的能源转型。一项文献综述和一个焦点小组产生了51个潜在的驱动因素。一个全国小组(n = 61)对每个驱动因素的重要性和可预测性(1-9)进行了评级,使识别关键的不确定性和假设的趋势成为可能。研究结果表明,社会对可再生能源的参与主要取决于三个不确定性:(1)能源治理(集中↔分散),(2)能源经济(成本反射定价↔补贴能源),以及(3)基础设施和资产所有权(公民/共同所有↔主要是公众)。基于两个最正交的轴,开发了四个内部一致的场景。一个后续政策小组(n = 21)对干预措施进行了压力测试,对9项政策杠杆进行了优先排序。经济和金融措施排名最高,强调价格改革和降低投资风险对于实现社会接受的可再生能源转型至关重要。该研究提供了一条透明、可复制的途径——从驾驶员识别到情景设计和政策测试——为伊朗量身定制,但也适用于面临类似不确定性的其他环境。
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引用次数: 0
Does the carbon price floor policy promote CTL-CCS investment? A real options and sequential investment model 碳价格下限政策是否促进了CTL-CCS投资?实物期权和顺序投资模型
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102133
Weiwei Zhang, He Dai, Yunxiang Wang, Yunzhuo Li, Yuanrong Wang
The coupling of Coal-to-Liquid (CTL) technology with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) can significantly reduce CO2 emissions from coal use by transporting captured CO2 for storage in geological formations, yet economic barriers hinder its widespread application. To address this, the study incorporates a carbon price floor policy into a sequential investment model for the CTL-CCS project and employs real options analysis to evaluate how the policy incentivizes CTL-CCS investment under uncertainties in oil, coal, and carbon prices. Taking the Shenhua project in China (with an annual oil output of 1.08 million tons) as a case study, the findings indicate that implementing a carbon price floor increases the value of the CTL-CCS project from 8.24 to 10.18 billion yuan, elevates the investment probability from 37.1 % to 74.2 %, and reduces the critical carbon price threshold from 217.43 to 156.74 yuan. The optimal carbon price floor to incentivize immediate investment is identified as 125 yuan per ton. These results underscore the effectiveness of carbon price floors in accelerating low-carbon investment in high-emission sectors and provide quantitative insights for carbon market design in China.
煤制液(CTL)技术与碳捕集与封存(CCS)技术相结合,通过将捕集的二氧化碳输送到地质构造中储存,可以显著减少煤炭使用过程中的二氧化碳排放,但经济障碍阻碍了其广泛应用。为了解决这一问题,本研究将碳价格下限政策纳入CTL-CCS项目的顺序投资模型,并采用实物期权分析来评估在石油、煤炭和碳价格不确定的情况下,该政策如何激励CTL-CCS投资。以中国神华项目(年产108万吨石油)为例,研究结果表明,实施碳价下限使CTL-CCS项目价值从82.4亿元增加到101.8亿元,投资概率从37.1%提高到74.2%,临界碳价门槛从217.43元降低到156.74元。确定了激励直接投资的最优碳价下限为每吨125元。这些结果强调了碳价格下限在加速高排放行业低碳投资方面的有效性,并为中国的碳市场设计提供了定量见解。
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引用次数: 0
Rethinking compensation for high-voltage electricity transmission line impacts on residential property in Belgium 比利时高压输电线路对住宅物业影响补偿的再思考
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102111
Simon De Jaeger, Johan Eyckmans, Guido Pepermans, Sandra Rousseau
As part of the energy transition, the high-voltage (HV) electricity grid often needs technical upgrading. These investments are not only associated with public benefits but also give rise to private concerns, such as the impact on property values. However, it is challenging to determine the value loss associated with an HV line crossing a real estate property, since characteristics such as age, size, and location of the property matter. In the Belgian context, compensation for property value losses resulting from public utility easements is legally recognized, but the amount is subject to debate. Thus, the research question we address in this study is how compensation should be determined and how it should depend on property characteristics. To provide a market and a citizen perspective, we assess the points of view of real estate experts and Belgian citizens, which we then relate to the current compensation scheme.
作为能源转型的一部分,高压电网经常需要技术升级。这些投资不仅与公共利益有关,而且也引起了私人的关注,例如对房地产价值的影响。然而,由于物业的年龄、大小和位置等特征,确定与高压线路穿过房地产相关的价值损失是具有挑战性的。在比利时的情况下,对公用事业地役权造成的财产价值损失的赔偿在法律上得到承认,但数额存在争议。因此,我们在本研究中解决的研究问题是如何确定补偿,以及它应该如何取决于财产特征。为了提供市场和公民的观点,我们评估了房地产专家和比利时公民的观点,然后我们将其与当前的补偿计划联系起来。
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引用次数: 0
A cross-sectional view of the drinking water scenario in a climate-stressed setting: Case study from southwestern Bangladesh 气候压力环境下饮用水情景的横断面分析:来自孟加拉国西南部的案例研究
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102121
Tasneem Chowdhury Fahim , Md Mainul Islam , Zinat Hasiba , Md. Ahasanul Hoque
This cross-sectional study examines the drinking water crisis in five highly water-stressed upazilas of southwestern Bangladesh, assessing quality, availability, accessibility, and costs. Key factors include water source reliability, unavailability duration, collection burden, ownership, and socio-economic disparities. Using TDS/Conductivity meters, the study found high salinity levels in community hand tubewells (1733 mg/L) and ponds (1330 mg/L), exceeding the Bangladesh national TDS standard. On average, water unavailability lasts up to 4.65 months annually. Spatial variability highlights Paikgacha's severe unavailability (7.15 months) compared to Koyra's shorter duration (2.84 months). Limited ownership (16 %) of water sources and reliance on external sources underscore access barriers. Affordability pressures are acute: low-income households allocate up to 4 % of their monthly income to drinking water, exacerbating vulnerabilities. Women and adolescent girls (∼80 %) bear the burden of water collection, while indigenous minorities face prolonged unavailability (6.85 months) with minimal ownership (2 %). Findings suggest policy should focus on reliability and equity, not just expanding coverage. Options include a low-cost lifeline block and targeted vouchers or discounts, paid for by cross-subsidies; extending pipes first to areas with the longest shortages; sizing rainwater-harvesting systems for the dry months; and inclusive governance with seats for women and indigenous peoples, and help with connection fees. By pinpointing where constraints bind and who is left behind, the study informs practical pathways toward SDG 6.1 in climate-stressed coastal settings.
本横断面研究考察了孟加拉国西南部五个高度缺水地区的饮用水危机,评估了水质、可用性、可及性和成本。关键因素包括水源可靠性、不可用时间、收集负担、所有权和社会经济差异。通过使用TDS/电导率仪,该研究发现社区手管井(1733 mg/L)和池塘(1330 mg/L)的含盐量很高,超过了孟加拉国国家TDS标准。每年平均缺水时间长达4.65个月。与Koyra的持续时间较短(2.84个月)相比,空间变异性突出了Paikgacha的严重不可用性(7.15个月)。有限的水资源所有权(16%)和对外部水源的依赖突出了获取障碍。负担能力的压力非常严重:低收入家庭将其月收入的4%用于饮用水,这加剧了脆弱性。妇女和少女(约80%)承担着取水的负担,而土著少数群体面临长期缺水(6.85个月)和最低所有权(2%)。研究结果表明,政策应侧重于可靠性和公平性,而不仅仅是扩大覆盖面。选择包括低成本的生命线区块和有针对性的代金券或折扣,由交叉补贴支付;首先将管道延伸到缺水时间最长的地区;为干旱月份设计雨水收集系统;以及为妇女和土著人民提供席位的包容性治理,并帮助支付连接费。通过确定哪些限制因素受到约束,哪些人被抛在后面,该研究为气候紧张的沿海地区实现可持续发展目标6.1提供了切实可行的途径。
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引用次数: 0
Replacing conventional energy resources with wind: An integrated economic, environmental, and social assessment 用风能替代传统能源:综合经济、环境和社会评估
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102085
Haris Ishaq , Osamah Siddiqui , ChengJi Tseng
Replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy resources has become an imminent global objective in this era. This paper investigates the economic, social, and environmental aspects of constructing and operating the wind farm through a comprehensive social cost-benefit analysis (SCBA) to assess the project's feasibility for the local Taiwanese population. The monetary values obtained were analyzed using net present value (NPV) methodology, evaluated from both publicly funded and privately owned perspectives. Key findings reveal significant differences between the two options when social and environmental factors are incorporated. Specifically, the NPV results for the publicly funded fixed-rate version are approximately 55.48 billion NTD, while the privately owned version stands at 4.18 billion NTD. Both versions are identified as profitable and feasible projects, provided the annual discount rate remains below 10.5% and 3.2%, respectively. The sensitivity analysis highlights that NPV results are particularly susceptible to fluctuations in capital costs and electricity sales income, with a 25% decrease in the feed-in tariff rate leading to a 43% drop in NPV. This finding suggests the need for a more thorough examination of these critical elements. This study is among the first to apply a comprehensive SCBA framework to an Asian offshore wind farm project, Formosa 2, incorporating not only economic but also environmental and social dimensions. By quantifying these factors, we provide novel insights into the comparative viability of publicly funded versus privately owned models, offering a holistic evidence base to guide renewable energy policy and investment in emerging markets.
用可再生能源替代化石燃料已成为这个时代迫在眉睫的全球目标。本文透过综合社会成本效益分析(SCBA),探讨建设及营运风电场的经济、社会及环境因素,以评估项目对台湾当地居民的可行性。获得的货币价值使用净现值(NPV)方法进行分析,从公共资助和私人拥有的角度进行评估。主要调查结果显示,当考虑到社会和环境因素时,两种选择之间存在显著差异。具体而言,公共资助的固定利率版本的净现值结果约为554.8亿新台币,而私人拥有的版本为41.8亿新台币。如果年贴现率分别低于10.5%和3.2%,这两个版本都被认为是有利可图的可行项目。敏感性分析强调,净现值结果特别容易受到资本成本和电力销售收入波动的影响,上网电价下降25%会导致净现值下降43%。这一发现表明需要对这些关键因素进行更彻底的检查。这项研究是第一个将综合SCBA框架应用于亚洲海上风电场项目Formosa 2的研究,不仅考虑了经济因素,还考虑了环境和社会因素。通过量化这些因素,我们对公共资助与私营模式的比较可行性提供了新颖的见解,为指导新兴市场的可再生能源政策和投资提供了全面的证据基础。
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引用次数: 0
An unrealized desire: what slows the implementation of energy communities in Catalonia? 一个未实现的愿望:是什么阻碍了加泰罗尼亚能源社区的实施?
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102120
Josep-Maria Arauzo-Carod
The transition to a sustainable energy model requires a broad social consensus to succeed. However, there is currently limited research on the factors influencing individual acceptance of specific energy transition tools, such as Energy Communities (ECs), a gap this paper aims to address. Specifically, we examine whether the determinants of current willingness to join ECs are the same as those influencing future willingness. This question is particularly relevant, as some individuals delay their participation in pro-environmental actions in anticipation of better future conditions, a behaviour that ultimately slows the energy transition. Using survey data from 1840 individuals in Catalonia (Spain), our findings reveal that the same factors do not necessarily shape current and future intentions to join ECs. This insight suggests the need for policy measures that address current dissatisfaction with ECs and promote future acceptance.
向可持续能源模式的过渡需要取得广泛的社会共识才能成功。然而,目前对影响个人接受特定能源转型工具(如能源社区(ec))的因素的研究有限,本文旨在解决这一空白。具体而言,我们考察了当前加入共同体意愿的决定因素是否与影响未来意愿的决定因素相同。这个问题尤其重要,因为一些人因为预期未来条件会更好而推迟参与亲环境行动,这种行为最终会减缓能源转型。通过对加泰罗尼亚(西班牙)1840名个人的调查数据,我们的研究结果表明,相同的因素并不一定会影响当前和未来加入欧共体的意愿。这一见解表明,需要采取政策措施来解决当前对ec的不满,并促进未来的接受。
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引用次数: 0
Corporate transitioning to electric vehicle fleets: charging tariffs, total cost of ownership, and the potential for load flexibility 企业向电动车队的过渡:收费、总拥有成本和负载灵活性的潜力
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102119
Ramith Wimalaratna, Alexandr Akimov, Shyama Ratnasiri
This study estimates the total cost of ownership of corporate battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) in Australia across a range of charging scenarios. It finds that time-varying tariffs have the potential to drive down the costs of vehicle ownership if charging is done at a time when greener and (often) cheaper electricity is available. The degree of benefit varies with several key parameters and operational characteristics, so efficient charging requires careful planning. With the right incentives and infrastructure in place, BEV fleets can serve as a valuable resource for load flexibility for grid operators.
这项研究估算了澳大利亚企业在各种充电场景下拥有纯电动汽车(bev)的总成本。研究发现,如果充电是在更环保、(通常)更便宜的电力可用的时候进行,时变电价有可能降低汽车拥有成本。效益程度随几个关键参数和操作特性而变化,因此高效充电需要仔细规划。有了适当的激励措施和基础设施,纯电动汽车车队可以成为电网运营商提高负载灵活性的宝贵资源。
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引用次数: 0
Incentive model for fair and resilient peer-to-peer energy trading based on the time value of money 基于货币时间价值的公平弹性点对点能源交易激励模型
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102122
Mayank Arora , Gururaj Mirle Vishwanath , Ankush Sharma , Naveen Chilamkurti
Peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading among residential prosumers requires incentive mechanisms that adapt to dynamic grid conditions and emergencies. We propose a novel Time Value of Money (TVM) based incentive model that adjusts rewards and penalties over time to promote early energy transactions, ensuring fairness and resilience. Under normal grid conditions, our TVM scheme achieves an average fairness index of 0.91 (10% higher than a conventional double-auction approach) and increases total energy shared by 12%. During a 24-hour resilience event, fairness increases by 0.94 (versus 0.85) and energy shared grows by 18%, while average per-prosumer incentives rise by 25%. Sensitivity analysis across community sizes (33-200 prosumers) demonstrates that the TVM model maintains fairness above 0.87 and scales energy sharing linearly with network size, even under 20% higher demand. These results confirm that our TVM mechanism consistently outperforms traditional methods in efficiency, equity, and emergency responsiveness.
住宅生产用户之间的点对点(P2P)能源交易需要适应动态电网条件和紧急情况的激励机制。我们提出了一种新颖的基于时间价值(TVM)的激励模型,该模型随着时间的推移调整奖励和惩罚,以促进早期能源交易,确保公平和弹性。在正常电网条件下,我们的TVM方案实现了0.91的平均公平指数(比传统的双拍卖方法高10%),并将总能源共享增加了12%。在24小时的弹性活动中,公平性提高了0.94(对0.85),能量共享增加了18%,而每个生产消费者的平均激励提高了25%。跨社区规模(33-200个产消者)的敏感性分析表明,TVM模型保持了0.87以上的公平性,即使在需求增加20%的情况下,能量共享也与网络规模呈线性关系。这些结果证实,我们的TVM机制在效率、公平性和应急响应能力方面始终优于传统方法。
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引用次数: 0
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