Application of domino effect quantitative risk assessment to Natech accident triggered by earthquakes in a liquor storage tank area

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104957

Tianming Ma , Jiajun Zou , Yuan He , Hong Zhao , Yanyu Chu , Dongyao Zhang , Chuyuan Huang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Damage to industrial equipment caused by earthquakes is a typical Natech accident. Earthquake damage may cause tank failures and trigger accidental releases of hazardous substances, even a series of fires and explosions, forming a natural hazard-induced domino chain (NHDC), which poses a serious threat to the processing industry. In this study, a whole-process quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methodology for earthquake-induced domino accident chains is proposed. In the framework of QRA, specific probit models are used to quantify the damage of earthquakes and to assess the probability of storage tank failure. Besides, pool fires following the leakage of the failed tanks were considered to be the consequence of the earthquake Natech accident. The Mudan thermal radiation model and the threshold model were used to identify the propagation paths of domino effects. Case studies were carried out to investigate the dynamic evolution of fire-related domino effects in different credible accident scenarios, including multiple initial accidents co-occurring. The results show that the combination of multiple initial accident scenarios takes less time to complete domino effect escalation of the overall scenario than a single initial accident scenario and will significantly increase the regional risk indices.

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多米诺效应定量风险评估在白酒储罐区地震引发的 Natech 事故中的应用

地震造成的工业设备损坏是典型的内特奇事故。地震破坏可能导致储罐故障，引发危险物质的意外释放，甚至引发一系列火灾和爆炸，形成自然灾害诱发的多米诺骨牌连锁事故（NHDC），对加工业构成严重威胁。本研究提出了地震诱发多米诺骨牌事故链的全过程定量风险评估（QRA）方法。在定量风险评估的框架内，使用特定的概率模型来量化地震的破坏程度，并评估储罐失效的概率。此外，失效储罐泄漏后的水池火灾也被视为地震 Natech 事故的后果。使用 Mudan 热辐射模型和阈值模型来确定多米诺骨牌效应的传播路径。进行了案例研究，以调查在不同可信事故情景下与火灾相关的多米诺效应的动态演变，包括多个初始事故同时发生。结果表明，与单一初始事故情景相比，多个初始事故情景组合完成整体情景多米诺效应升级所需的时间更短，并将显著增加区域风险指数。

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来源期刊

International journal of disaster risk reduction GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARYMETEOROLOGY-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

CiteScore

8.70

自引率

18.00%

发文量

688

审稿时长

79 days

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international. Key topics:- -multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters -the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques -discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels -disasters associated with climate change -vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends -emerging risks -resilience against disasters. The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.