Ethnic diversity and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from refugee-hosting areas

IF 5.1 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103393
Luisito Bertinelli , Rana Cömertpay , Jean-François Maystadt
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Abstract

This study explores how forced migration affects ethnic diversity and conflict in 23 Sub-Saharan African countries from 2005 to 2016. Using UNHCR data on refugee camp locations, we predict changes in local ethnic diversity. By integrating Afrobarometer and Ethnic Power Relations-Ethnicity of Refugees datasets, we analyse the link between refugee-induced diversity and conflict occurrence. Findings indicate that refugee-induced polarization increases the risk of local violence, while fractionalization has a mitigating effect. Notably, the number of refugees does not impact the likelihood of conflict; instead, alterations in ethnic diversity, especially polarization, emerge as the primary driver of conflict.
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撒哈拉以南非洲的种族多样性与冲突:难民收容地区的证据
本研究探讨了 2005 年至 2016 年期间,强迫移民如何影响 23 个撒哈拉以南非洲国家的种族多样性和冲突。利用联合国难民署关于难民营地点的数据,我们预测了当地种族多样性的变化。通过整合非洲晴雨表和种族权力关系--难民种族数据集,我们分析了难民引发的多样性与冲突发生之间的联系。研究结果表明,难民引发的两极分化会增加当地发生暴力的风险,而分裂化则有缓解作用。值得注意的是,难民数量并不影响冲突发生的可能性;相反,种族多样性的改变,特别是两极分化,成为冲突的主要驱动因素。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.30
自引率
4.00%
发文量
126
审稿时长
72 days
期刊介绍: The Journal of Development Economics publishes papers relating to all aspects of economic development - from immediate policy concerns to structural problems of underdevelopment. The emphasis is on quantitative or analytical work, which is relevant as well as intellectually stimulating.
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