The impact of climate change on Al-wala basin based on geomatics, hydrology and climate models

Abstract

Jordan is severely affected by climate change, it suffers from significance fluctuation and decrease in the amounts of the annual precipitation basically during the last decade which had dire consequences for farmers and the provision of fresh water. In this study, the impact of climate change on the Al-Wala basin was analyzed during the period 2013 to 2024 using Geomatics techniques, Google Earth Engine (GEE) and machine learning codes. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to simulate the hydrological process up to year 2064. Moreover, the Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model (MRI-ESM2-0) was used to predict the change of water surface area of the Al-Wala dam lake in the future. Annual satellite images: Lanadsat and sentinel, covering the period of the study area were downloaded and enhanced. They permit to provide the necessary information to carry out this study. As result, an important fluctuation of the amount of annual rainfall quantity was observed as well as, the amounts of annual rainfall expected to increase and decrease wobbly for several years in the future. Overall the average annual runoff will increase by 10% compared to the baseline scenario. The minimum temperature is expected to be higher than their rates throughout the year by 0.09°- 0.11^o C, this will increase the evaporation rates with about 0.03%. The analysis of the sensitivity using the SWAT model was identified by 6 parameters out of 17. The regression coefficient (R²), Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), on monthly basis, were above 0.60 for both of them which indicates satisfactory model results.