{"title":"Few shot learning for Korean winter temperature forecasts","authors":"Seol-Hee Oh, Yoo-Geun Ham","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00813-z","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"To address the challenge of limited training samples, this study employs the model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) algorithm along with domain-knowledge-based data augmentation to predict winter temperatures on the Korean Peninsula. While data augmentation has been achieved by using global climate model simulations, the proposed augmentation is purely based on the observed data by defining the labels using large-scale climate variabilities associated with the Korean winter temperatures. The MAML-applied convolutional neural network (CNN) (referred to as the MAML model) demonstrates superior correlation skills for Korean temperature anomalies compared to a reference model (i.e., the CNN without MAML) and state-of-the-art dynamical forecast models across all target lead months during the boreal winter seasons. Sensitivity experiments show that the domain-knowledge-based data augmentation enhances the forecast skill of the MAML model. Moreover, occlusion sensitivity results reveal that the MAML model better captures the physical precursors that influence Korean winter temperatures, resulting in more accurate predictions.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00813-z.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00813-z","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
To address the challenge of limited training samples, this study employs the model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) algorithm along with domain-knowledge-based data augmentation to predict winter temperatures on the Korean Peninsula. While data augmentation has been achieved by using global climate model simulations, the proposed augmentation is purely based on the observed data by defining the labels using large-scale climate variabilities associated with the Korean winter temperatures. The MAML-applied convolutional neural network (CNN) (referred to as the MAML model) demonstrates superior correlation skills for Korean temperature anomalies compared to a reference model (i.e., the CNN without MAML) and state-of-the-art dynamical forecast models across all target lead months during the boreal winter seasons. Sensitivity experiments show that the domain-knowledge-based data augmentation enhances the forecast skill of the MAML model. Moreover, occlusion sensitivity results reveal that the MAML model better captures the physical precursors that influence Korean winter temperatures, resulting in more accurate predictions.
期刊介绍:
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols.
The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.