Predicting the 2023/24 El Niño from a multi-scale and global perspective

IF 8.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI:10.1038/s43247-024-01867-w
Ruikun Hu, Tao Lian, Ting Liu, Jie Wang, Xunshu Song, Hui Chen, Dake Chen
{"title":"Predicting the 2023/24 El Niño from a multi-scale and global perspective","authors":"Ruikun Hu, Tao Lian, Ting Liu, Jie Wang, Xunshu Song, Hui Chen, Dake Chen","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01867-w","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The 2023/24 El Niño ranks as the second strongest event in the twenty-first century thus far. The event exhibited a two-step warming tendency and two warming centers, which could not be explained by the heat content buildup. Here, by conducting observational analysis and model experiments, we show that the record-breaking pantropical warming in 2023 mitigated this El Niño and confined the warming to the eastern basin, and that a series of westerly wind bursts induced another warming center in the central equatorial Pacific toward the end of 2023. Yet the effects of pantropical forcing and wind bursts coincidentally offset each other, leaving the heat content buildup appearing as the primary cause of the 2023/24 El Niño. Our results not only confirm the essential role of equatorial ocean heat recharge for El Niño development, but also demonstrate the necessity of accounting for multi-scale interactions from a global perspective to predict El Niño. The strong 2023/24 El Niño was affected by heat content buildup, westerly wind bursts, and record-breaking sea surface temperature warming over the tropics, with heat content buildup being the primary cause, according to analysis of observational evidence and model forecast simulations.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01867-w.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Communications Earth & Environment","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01867-w","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

The 2023/24 El Niño ranks as the second strongest event in the twenty-first century thus far. The event exhibited a two-step warming tendency and two warming centers, which could not be explained by the heat content buildup. Here, by conducting observational analysis and model experiments, we show that the record-breaking pantropical warming in 2023 mitigated this El Niño and confined the warming to the eastern basin, and that a series of westerly wind bursts induced another warming center in the central equatorial Pacific toward the end of 2023. Yet the effects of pantropical forcing and wind bursts coincidentally offset each other, leaving the heat content buildup appearing as the primary cause of the 2023/24 El Niño. Our results not only confirm the essential role of equatorial ocean heat recharge for El Niño development, but also demonstrate the necessity of accounting for multi-scale interactions from a global perspective to predict El Niño. The strong 2023/24 El Niño was affected by heat content buildup, westerly wind bursts, and record-breaking sea surface temperature warming over the tropics, with heat content buildup being the primary cause, according to analysis of observational evidence and model forecast simulations.

Abstract Image

查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
从多尺度和全球视角预测 2023/24 年厄尔尼诺现象
2023/24 年厄尔尼诺现象是二十一世纪迄今为止第二强的厄尔尼诺现象。这次厄尔尼诺现象表现出两级升温趋势和两个升温中心,这无法用热含量积累来解释。在此,我们通过观测分析和模式实验表明,2023 年破纪录的泛热带增温缓解了这次厄尔尼诺现象,并将增温限制在东部海盆,而一系列西风暴发则在 2023 年底在赤道太平洋中部诱发了另一个增温中心。然而,泛热带强迫和风灾的影响不约而同地相互抵消,使得热含量积累成为 2023/24 年厄尔尼诺现象的主要原因。我们的研究结果不仅证实了赤道海洋热量补给对厄尔尼诺现象发展的重要作用,还证明了从全球角度考虑多尺度相互作用对预测厄尔尼诺现象的必要性。根据对观测证据和模式预测模拟的分析,2023/24 年的强厄尔尼诺现象受到热含量积聚、西风暴发和热带海面温度破纪录升温的影响,而热含量积聚是主要原因。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 去求助
来源期刊
Communications Earth & Environment
Communications Earth & Environment Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences
CiteScore
8.60
自引率
2.50%
发文量
269
审稿时长
26 weeks
期刊介绍: Communications Earth & Environment is an open access journal from Nature Portfolio publishing high-quality research, reviews and commentary in all areas of the Earth, environmental and planetary sciences. Research papers published by the journal represent significant advances that bring new insight to a specialized area in Earth science, planetary science or environmental science. Communications Earth & Environment has a 2-year impact factor of 7.9 (2022 Journal Citation Reports®). Articles published in the journal in 2022 were downloaded 1,412,858 times. Median time from submission to the first editorial decision is 8 days.
期刊最新文献
Warming-induced contrasts in snow depth drive the future trajectory of soil carbon loss across the Arctic-Boreal region Predicting the 2023/24 El Niño from a multi-scale and global perspective Upright emplacement of the Gibraltar slab and the origin of rifting in adjacent foreland and Backarc Basins Sedimentary facies controlled biogeochemical process of biotic extinction and turnover across the Cambrian SPICE event Estimating nutrient stoichiometry and cascading influences on plankton in thermokarst lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1