Prediction of the Relative Resource Abundance of the Argentine Shortfin Squid Illex argentinus in the High Sea in the Southwest Atlantic Based on a Deep Learning Model.

Abstract

To analyze the impact of the marine environment on the relative abundance of Illex argentinus (high and low categories) in the southwest Atlantic, this study collected logbook data from Chinese pelagic trawlers from December 2014 to June 2024, including vessel position data and oceanographic variables such as sea surface temperature, 50 m and 100 m water temperature, sea surface salinity, sea surface height, chlorophyll-a concentration, and mixed layer depth. Vessel positions were used to enhance the logbook data quality, allowing an analysis of the annual trends in the resource center of this squid at a spatial resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° and a temporal resolution of ten days. The findings showed that the resource center is primarily located around 42° S in the north and between 45° S and 47° S in the south, with a trend of northward movement during the study period. Additionally, we constructed two ensemble learning models based on decision trees-AdaBoost and PSO-RF-aiming to identify the most critical environmental factors that affect its resource abundance; we found that the optimal model was the PSO-RF model with max_depth of 5 and n_estimators of 46. The importance analysis revealed that sea surface temperature, mixed layer depth, sea surface height, sea surface salinity, and 50 m water temperature are critical environmental factors affecting this species' resources. Given that deep learning models generally have shorter running times and higher accuracy than other models, we developed a CNN-Attention model based on the five most important input factors. This model achieved an accuracy of 73.6% in forecasting this squid for 2024, predicting that the population would first appear near the Argentine exclusive economic zone around mid-December 2023 and gradually move east and south thereafter. The predictions of the model, validated through log data, maintained over 70% accuracy during most periods at a time scale of ten days. The successful construction of the resource abundance forecasting model and its accuracy improvements can help enterprises save fuel and time costs associated with blind searches for target species. Moreover, this research contributes to improving resource utilization efficiency and reducing fishing duration, thereby aiding in lowering carbon emissions from pelagic trawling activities, offering valuable insights for the sustainable development of this species' resources.