[Analysis of temporal trends of the incidence rate of tuberculosis in Shaanxi Province].

Q3 Medicine 中华预防医学杂志 Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI:10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20240419-00327

H L Lyu, H W Zhang, H Chen, X H Liu, X L Zhang, X Zhang, J Z Bai, S M You, Y Y Xu, W Y Zhang

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Abstract

Objective: To analyze the temporal trends of the incidence rate of tuberculosis (TB) in Shaanxi Province and provide a reference for WHO to control the prevalence of TB effectively. Methods: Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trend of the incidence rate of TB in Shaanxi Province from 2004 to 2022, and the seasonal autoregressive moving average model was used to forecast the incidence rate of TB in Shaanxi Province to 2030. Results: The incidence rate of TB in Shaanxi Province decreased from 90.896/100 000 in 2004 to 35.364/100 000 in 2022, showing a general downward trend (AAPC=-7.72%, P<0.001). From 2014 to 2019, the reduction trend slowed down (APC=-0.69%, P=0.814), of which the largest decline occurred from 2019 to 2022 (APC=-13.26%, P=0.010). The predicted incidence rate of TB in Shaanxi Province from 2020 to 2022 was higher than the reported incidence rate, with the expected incidence rate of 51.342/100 000 in 2022 and 43.468/100 000 in 2030. Conclusion: The incidence rate of TB in Shaanxi Province shows a downward trend from 2004 to 2022, but the decline has shrunk in recent years. It is predicted that the downward trend will continue to slow down by 2030.

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[陕西省结核病发病率的时间趋势分析]。

目的分析陕西省结核病发病率的时间变化趋势，为世界卫生组织有效控制结核病的流行提供参考。方法：采用连接点回归分析陕西省结核病发病率的时间变化趋势：采用连接点回归分析陕西省2004-2022年结核病发病率的变化趋势，采用季节自回归移动平均模型预测陕西省至2030年的结核病发病率。结果显示陕西省结核病发病率从2004年的90.896/10万下降到2022年的35.364/10万，总体呈下降趋势（AAPC=-7.72%，PP=0.814），其中2019年至2022年下降幅度最大（APC=-13.26%，P=0.010）。2020-2022年陕西省结核病预测发病率高于报告发病率，预计2022年发病率为51.342/10万，2030年发病率为43.468/10万。结论从 2004 年到 2022 年，陕西省结核病发病率呈下降趋势，但近年来下降幅度有所缩小。预计到 2030 年，下降趋势将继续放缓。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

中华预防医学杂志 Medicine-Medicine (all)

CiteScore

1.20

自引率

0.00%

发文量

12678

期刊介绍： Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine (CJPM), the successor to Chinese Health Journal , was initiated on October 1, 1953. In 1960, it was amalgamated with the Chinese Medical Journal and the Journal of Medical History and Health Care , and thereafter, was renamed as People’s Care . On November 25, 1978, the publication was denominated as Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine . The contents of CJPM deal with a wide range of disciplines and technologies including epidemiology, environmental health, nutrition and food hygiene, occupational health, hygiene for children and adolescents, radiological health, toxicology, biostatistics, social medicine, pathogenic and epidemiological research in malignant tumor, surveillance and immunization.