Upstream Oil and Gas Production and Community COVID-19 Case and Mortality Rates in California, USA

Abstract

Higher concentrations of ambient air pollutants, including PM_2.5 and NO₂, and other pollutants have been found near active oil and gas wells and may be associated with adverse COVID-19 outcomes. We assessed whether residential exposure to nearby oil and gas production was associated with higher rates of the respiratory infection COVID-19 and related mortality using a population-based ecological study in California. Using gridded population estimates, we estimated area-level exposure to annual average oil and gas production volume from active wells within 1 kilometer (km) of populated areas within census block groups from 2018 to 2020. We geocoded confirmed cases and associated deaths to assess block group case and mortality rates from COVID-19 from February 2020 to January 2021. We fit hierarchical Poisson models with individual and area covariates (e.g., age, sex, socioeconomic disadvantage), and included time and other interactions to assess additional variation (e.g., testing, reporting rates). In the first 4 months of the study period (February–May 2020), block groups in the highest tertile of oil and gas production exposure had 34% higher case rates (IRR: 1.34 95% CI: 1.20, 1.49) and 55% higher mortality rates (MRR: 1.52 95%: CI: 1.14, 2.03) than those with no estimated production, after accounting for area-level covariates. Over the entire study period, we observed moderately higher mortality rates in the highest group (MRR: 1.16 95%: CI: 1.01, 1.33) and null associations for case rates.