Machine learning model for early prediction of survival in gallbladder adenocarcinoma: A comparison study

Abstract

The prognosis for gallbladder adenocarcinoma (GBAC), a highly malignant cancer, is not good. In order to facilitate individualized risk stratification and improve clinical decision-making, this study set out to create and validate a machine learning model that could accurately predict early survival outcomes in GBAC patients. Five models—RSF, Cox regression, GBM, XGBoost, and Deepsurv—were compared using data from the SEER database (2010–2020). The dataset was divided into training (70 %) and validation (30 %) sets, and the C-index, ROC curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the model's performance. At 1, 2, and 3-year survival intervals, the RSF model performed better than the others in terms of calibration, discrimination, and clinical net benefit. The most important predictor of survival, according to SHAP analysis, is AJCC stage. Patients were divided into high, medium, and low-risk groups according to RSF-derived risk scores, which revealed notable variations in survival results. These results demonstrate the RSF model's potential as an early survival prediction tool for GBAC patients, which could enhance individualized treatment and decision-making.