Tropical cyclone-induced rainfall variability and its implications for drought in Taiwan: Insights from 1981 to 2022

Abstract

This study analyzes the interplay between tropical cyclones (TCs) and drought in Taiwan over the period from 1981 to 2022, leveraging data from CHIRPS, FLDAS, IBTrACS, and Sentinel and Landsat satellite imagery. Our findings reveal a significant decline in TC-induced rainfall over the last decade, with a turning point in 2017. We establish a low to moderate positive correlation between TC-induced rainfall and subsequent spring soil moisture levels, with April exhibiting the strongest connection. This relationship strengthens in transitions from agricultural to forested areas. Additionally, our research identifies a robust correlation (r = 0.77) between TC-induced rainfall and reservoir water levels, underscoring the consistent link between TCs and hydrological drought. However, intriguing disparities emerge in water availability patterns. In 2007 and 2020, reservoirs maintained normal levels despite reduced typhoon rainfall in prior years. Conversely, in 2019, water shortages occurred despite typical TC-induced rainfall. These cases suggest that water availability is influenced by factors beyond TCs, including water demand, infrastructure, monsoon and spring rainfall, air temperature, and water management strategies. Furthermore, we uncover a symmetrical relationship between TCs and monsoon-induced rainfall, indicating their potential to balance reservoir water supply. Nevertheless, both TCs and the monsoon exhibit declining trends in the past decade, heightening the risk of spring season water scarcity in Taiwan. Effective water resource management demands consideration of natural and anthropogenic factors, encompassing land use changes, deforestation, production activities, water pollution, and policy strategies. These measures are essential to mitigate water scarcity and promote sustainability in Taiwan.