Assessing investment priorities for inclusive agricultural transformation in Tanzania

IF 2 3区经济学 Q2 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Development Policy Review Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI:10.1111/dpr.12812

Emerta A. Aragie, Rui Benfica, Karl Pauw, Josée Randriamamonjy, James Thurlow

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Abstract

Motivation

Policy-makers dealing with conflicting development goals and constrained budgets must comprehend the relative cost effectiveness of agricultural and rural development initiatives.

Purpose

We assess the impact of alternative interventions on development outcomes—economic growth, job creation, poverty reduction, and diet quality—to inform decision-making and resource allocation in Tanzania's agriculture. We analyse trade-offs among development objectives and explore budget reallocation to enhance the efficiency of public spending.

Approach and methods

We used a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model linked top-down with microsimulation modules to simulate the impact of public investment options.

Findings

No single option emerges as the most effective across all development objectives. Investments in improved inputs and extension for horticulture and cash crops stand out for diet quality and employment creation. Livestock services show consistently high rankings across multiple objectives. Investments to boost cereals and root crops promote growth and reduce poverty but do little to increase employment and diet quality.

Budget reallocation towards more cost-effective interventions can significantly enhance the development effectiveness of Tanzania's agricultural expenditures and would substantially increase cumulative gross domestic product growth between 2019 and 2028.

Policy implications

Policy-makers can use the findings to design and prioritize agricultural interventions that better align with broader development objectives. Tanzania can achieve higher benefits and contribute to overall development goals by reallocating resources towards more cost-effective expenditure options.

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评估坦桑尼亚包容性农业转型的投资重点

动机决策者在面对相互冲突的发展目标和有限的预算时，必须了解农业和农村发展措施的相对成本效益。目的我们评估了替代干预措施对发展成果（经济增长、创造就业、减贫和饮食质量）的影响，以便为坦桑尼亚农业决策和资源分配提供参考。我们分析了发展目标之间的权衡，并探讨了如何重新分配预算以提高公共支出的效率。方法我们使用了一个自上而下与微观模拟模块相连的可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型来模拟公共投资方案的影响。结果在所有发展目标中，没有一个方案是最有效的。投资于园艺和经济作物的改良投入和推广，在提高饮食质量和创造就业方面效果突出。畜牧业服务在多个目标中的排名一直较高。对谷物和根茎作物的投资促进了增长和减贫，但对增加就业和提高饮食质量作用不大。将预算重新分配给更具成本效益的干预措施，可显著提高坦桑尼亚农业支出的发展效益，并将大幅提高 2019 年至 2028 年的累计国内生产总值增长。政策影响政策制定者可以利用研究结果来设计农业干预措施并确定其优先次序，从而更好地与更广泛的发展目标保持一致。通过将资源重新分配给更具成本效益的支出方案，坦桑尼亚可以实现更高的效益，并为总体发展目标做出贡献。

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来源期刊

Development Policy Review DEVELOPMENT STUDIES-

CiteScore

3.50

自引率

5.90%

发文量

期刊介绍： Development Policy Review is the refereed journal that makes the crucial links between research and policy in international development. Edited by staff of the Overseas Development Institute, the London-based think-tank on international development and humanitarian issues, it publishes single articles and theme issues on topics at the forefront of current development policy debate. Coverage includes the latest thinking and research on poverty-reduction strategies, inequality and social exclusion, property rights and sustainable livelihoods, globalisation in trade and finance, and the reform of global governance. Informed, rigorous, multi-disciplinary and up-to-the-minute, DPR is an indispensable tool for development researchers and practitioners alike.

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