Real Wage Growth in Papua New Guinea Over Three Decades

IF 1.4 3区社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI:10.1002/app5.70001

Niels-Hugo Blunch, Martin Davies

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Abstract

As a key determinant of household welfare, workersʼ real wages matter. Limited by small and infrequent surveys, the study of real wages in Papua New Guinea (PNG) has until now been constrained by a paucity of data. Using a novel dataset, we construct the first longitudinal series of wages for (to a close approximation) the population of formal private sector workers in PNG over a 3 decades span from 1999 to 2018. We examine real wage growth for the formal private sector in PNG over a 20-year period using panel regression. Among the main findings are that conditional real wage growth has averaged about 4.5%. Also, real wage developments closely mirror the bust-boom-bust episodes of the macroeconomic cycle. Further, conditional real wage growth in the agricultural sector lagged that in services, industry, and mining with agriculture hardest hit during busts and lagging during the boom and mining the winner. Men experience higher conditional real wage growth during booms but also bear the majority of the decrease during busts. Finally, we establish the strong co-movement of the real exchange rate (RER) and the conditional real wage, providing support for the RER as an important determinant of real wages in PNG.

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三十年来巴布亚新几内亚的实际工资增长情况

工人的实际工资是决定家庭福利的关键因素。由于巴布亚新几内亚（PNG）的调查规模小、频率低，到目前为止，对该国实际工资的研究一直受到数据匮乏的限制。利用一个新颖的数据集，我们首次构建了巴布亚新几内亚正规私营部门工人（近似）在 1999 年至 2018 年 30 年间的纵向工资序列。我们利用面板回归研究了巴新正规私营部门 20 年间的实际工资增长情况。主要发现包括：有条件的实际工资增长率平均约为 4.5%。此外，实际工资的发展密切反映了宏观经济周期中的 "萧条-繁荣-萧条 "阶段。此外，农业部门的有条件实际工资增长滞后于服务业、工业和采矿业，农业在萧条时期受到的打击最大，在繁荣时期则落后于服务业、工业和采矿业，而采矿业则是赢家。在经济繁荣时期，男性的有条件实际工资增长较高，但在经济萧条时期，男性也承担了大部分的工资下降。最后，我们确定了实际汇率（RER）与有条件实际工资之间存在着强烈的共动关系，从而为将实际汇率作为巴布亚新几内亚实际工资的重要决定因素提供了支持。

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来源期刊

Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies AREA STUDIES-

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

5.30%

发文量

审稿时长

6 weeks

期刊介绍： Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies is the flagship journal of the Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University. It is a peer-reviewed journal that targets research in policy studies in Australia, Asia and the Pacific, across a discipline focus that includes economics, political science, governance, development and the environment. Specific themes of recent interest include health and education, aid, migration, inequality, poverty reduction, energy, climate and the environment, food policy, public administration, the role of the private sector in public policy, trade, foreign policy, natural resource management and development policy. Papers on a range of topics that speak to various disciplines, the region and policy makers are encouraged. The goal of the journal is to break down barriers across disciplines, and generate policy impact. Submissions will be reviewed on the basis of content, policy relevance and readability.