Projected Changes to Characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, and Southern Annular Mode Events in the CMIP6 Models

Abstract

In this study we analyse projections of future changes to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) using the latest generation of climate models. Multiple future scenarios are considered. We quantify the fraction of models that project future increases or decreases in the frequency and amplitude of ENSO, IOD, and SAM events in the late 21st century. Changes to the frequency of co-occurring and consecutive driver phases are also examined. We find that while there is large inter-model spread, the most common pathways correspond to more frequent ENSO events; weaker, less frequent IOD events; and stronger, but less frequent austral spring SAM events. There is no clear consensus on the change to the frequency of concurrent events, though we find a significant increase in La Niña- and El Niño-only events occurring with neutral IOD and SAM. We also find a significant increase to the frequency of consecutive positive IOD events under a high emissions scenario, but no significant change to the frequency of consecutive ENSO or negative IOD events. In most models, the correlation between drivers, that is, ENSO and IOD, and ENSO and SAM, does not significantly change between the late 20th and late 21st century. These results indicate a high degree of internal variability in the models.