Climate change and the farmer-Pastoralist's violent conflict: Experimental evidence from Nigeria

Abstract

We examine how a better understanding of how climate change induces herder migration to other locations and subsequent conflicts with sedentary farmers influences respondents' support for policies that accommodate outgroup members. We conducted a pre-registered survey experiment with 550 residents of a conflict zone in Nigeria and discovered that as perceived herder vulnerability due to climate change increases, residents are inclined to support policies that accommodate these herders. In other words, rhetorical exposure that leads respondents to perceive climate change as the primary driver of herder migration to other communities increases support for accommodating policies (i.e., policies that support integrating outgroup members into their community). The effects are essentially consistent regardless of the respondents' proximity to the conflict, as measured by their loss experiences or their trust in outgroup members or dominant domestic institutions. These results highlight the need to conceptualise vulnerability as the primary driver of the herder-farmer conflict, which is a settled fact as opposed to other 'conspiratorial' narratives, allowing for new methods of mapping public opinion in favor of integrating both groups for peaceful coexistence in conflict zones.