Africa emits roughly 4% of global greenhouse gases yet faces some of the world’s most damaging climate extremes. Using approximately 45,000$ face to face interviews from Afrobarometer Round 9 (2021–2023) across 37 countries, we examine how perceived increases in drought and flood severity relate to climate change awareness, risk perceptions, policy support, and evaluations of institutional effort. We estimate selection corrected probit and ordered probit models with extensive individual, household, and community controls and country fixed effects. Perceiving more severe droughts increases the probability of having heard of climate change by approximately 4 percentage points, makes respondents almost 10 points more likely to say climate change is making life “much worse,” strengthens support for government action even at economic cost, and heightens criticism that governments and rich countries are not doing enough. Perceived flood severity likewise raises awareness in close to 4 points but shows weaker – and sometimes countervailing – associations, shifting preferences toward jobs over environmental protection by 3 points. Effects are most pronounced among agriculture dependent households, while poorer and less educated citizens remain least informed overall, underscoring an information gap. The results demonstrate that hazard type matters for public opinion: slow onset droughts align experience with concern and collective action, whereas rapid onset floods are more often filtered through economic priorities. Risk specific, equity minded communication and policy design are therefore essential to sustain broad support for climate action across Africa.
{"title":"Between drought and flood: How perceptions of climate extremes shape public attitudes toward climate action in Africa","authors":"Joyeuse Iragena, Alejandro Lopez-Feldman, Zélie Gankon","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108954","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108954","url":null,"abstract":"Africa emits roughly 4% of global greenhouse gases yet faces some of the world’s most damaging climate extremes. Using approximately 45,000$ face to face interviews from Afrobarometer Round 9 (2021–2023) across 37 countries, we examine how perceived increases in drought and flood severity relate to climate change awareness, risk perceptions, policy support, and evaluations of institutional effort. We estimate selection corrected probit and ordered probit models with extensive individual, household, and community controls and country fixed effects. Perceiving more severe droughts increases the probability of having heard of climate change by approximately 4 percentage points, makes respondents almost 10 points more likely to say climate change is making life “much worse,” strengthens support for government action even at economic cost, and heightens criticism that governments and rich countries are not doing enough. Perceived flood severity likewise raises awareness in close to 4 points but shows weaker – and sometimes countervailing – associations, shifting preferences toward jobs over environmental protection by 3 points. Effects are most pronounced among agriculture dependent households, while poorer and less educated citizens remain least informed overall, underscoring an information gap. The results demonstrate that hazard type matters for public opinion: slow onset droughts align experience with concern and collective action, whereas rapid onset floods are more often filtered through economic priorities. Risk specific, equity minded communication and policy design are therefore essential to sustain broad support for climate action across Africa.","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146209282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-16DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108950
Benedikt Seisl
Managing a green transition to a sustainable economic system will fundamentally affect the organization of labor markets. To ensure that this green transition is also a just transition it is essential to better understand which employees are vulnerable to these labor market disruptions due to an outdated or inflexible skill set. In other words, knowing what it takes for workers to transition from brown to green requires insights on which of their skills can make this transition with them. To address this gap, I propose a text-based indicator to measure any worker's degree of skill transferability for the green transition based on occupational skills and tasks. This indicator utilizes cosine similarities between sentence embeddings of green tasks and non-green tasks required in specific occupations. It performs equally well across fine-grained levels of occupational classifications, thus paving the way for cross-sectional comparisons. Moreover, the indicator serves as a complement to existing measures of greenness of labor markets as it allows for a more fine-grained analysis of the potential transferability of skills in the green transition. The developed method can augment future research on labor market mobility in light of economic transformations by directly assessing the transition potential of specific skills. Thereby, it can assist policymakers in the design of tailored up- and re-skilling programs to ensure that labor market participants meet the skill requirements for a transition to sustainable and decent jobs.
{"title":"Who is transitioning to green? Introducing a text-based indicator to measure green skill transferability","authors":"Benedikt Seisl","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108950","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108950","url":null,"abstract":"Managing a green transition to a sustainable economic system will fundamentally affect the organization of labor markets. To ensure that this green transition is also a just transition it is essential to better understand which employees are vulnerable to these labor market disruptions due to an outdated or inflexible skill set. In other words, knowing what it takes for workers to transition from brown to green requires insights on which of their skills can make this transition with them. To address this gap, I propose a text-based indicator to measure any worker's degree of skill transferability for the green transition based on occupational skills and tasks. This indicator utilizes cosine similarities between sentence embeddings of green tasks and non-green tasks required in specific occupations. It performs equally well across fine-grained levels of occupational classifications, thus paving the way for cross-sectional comparisons. Moreover, the indicator serves as a complement to existing measures of greenness of labor markets as it allows for a more fine-grained analysis of the potential transferability of skills in the green transition. The developed method can augment future research on labor market mobility in light of economic transformations by directly assessing the transition potential of specific skills. Thereby, it can assist policymakers in the design of tailored up- and re-skilling programs to ensure that labor market participants meet the skill requirements for a transition to sustainable and decent jobs.","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146209401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-15DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108966
Qian Wang, Fang Nan, Yuling Luo
Extreme climatic events have amplified in both frequency and intensity, exerting substantial impacts on socioeconomic development. In this paper, we investigate the propagation dynamics of extreme climate risks and the rescue strategy after climate disaster via the SIRS (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible) model which can capture the entire transmission process of climate risk contagion by employing simulation analysis. Our findings reveal that climate-induced shocks propagate dynamically through corporate networks, amplifying their systemic impacts. We demonstrate that post-disaster government relief can effectively curtail risk propagation, though its efficacy is contingent upon both intervention intensity and timing. Corporations establishing robust risk-mitigation frameworks prove superior in cost-effectiveness compared to governmental aid. By pioneering the application of SIRS modeling to climate risk transmission dynamics, this work advances theoretical frameworks in climate risk research while offering actionable insights for optimizing post-disaster rescue.
{"title":"Prepare the umbrella before it rains: Transmission and rescue strategy of extreme climate shocks via susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible model","authors":"Qian Wang, Fang Nan, Yuling Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108966","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108966","url":null,"abstract":"Extreme climatic events have amplified in both frequency and intensity, exerting substantial impacts on socioeconomic development. In this paper, we investigate the propagation dynamics of extreme climate risks and the rescue strategy after climate disaster via the SIRS (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible) model which can capture the entire transmission process of climate risk contagion by employing simulation analysis. Our findings reveal that climate-induced shocks propagate dynamically through corporate networks, amplifying their systemic impacts. We demonstrate that post-disaster government relief can effectively curtail risk propagation, though its efficacy is contingent upon both intervention intensity and timing. Corporations establishing robust risk-mitigation frameworks prove superior in cost-effectiveness compared to governmental aid. By pioneering the application of SIRS modeling to climate risk transmission dynamics, this work advances theoretical frameworks in climate risk research while offering actionable insights for optimizing post-disaster rescue.","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146209638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-14DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108971
Fanny Böse, Julia Neugebauer, Theresa Lösel, Marie-Sophie Nickel, Alexander Wimmers, Christian von Hirschhausen
Human activities are inherently embedded into the environment and must stay within the limits of our planet. Nuclear power is highlighted as a low-carbon technology to mitigate climate change by industry and sometimes by academia and in politics. From a system perspective, it is inevitable to shed light on the accumulation of long-lived and hazardous radioactive materials stemming from the operation of nuclear power plants. Only recently, the planetary boundary (PB) framework (re-)emphasized radioactive material but without further investigation. This paper aims to bridge this conceptual gap by conceptualizing human-made radioactive materials into the PB framework. We first review the development of the PB concept, emphasizing the novel entities boundary, and summarize previous approaches and variables. We then argue for a planetary perspective on radionuclides as a concern, proposing their inclusion as a sub-boundary within the novel entities PB. Therefore, this paper specifies “anthropogenically mobilized radioactive materials”, proposes potential control variables, and provides the first detailed analysis in this context. We conclude by discussing the implications of the precautionary principle and the concept of a “safe operating space” for radioactive materials to address radioactive materials in the global sustainability context.
{"title":"Bridging a gap: Analyzing radioactive materials within the planetary boundary framework","authors":"Fanny Böse, Julia Neugebauer, Theresa Lösel, Marie-Sophie Nickel, Alexander Wimmers, Christian von Hirschhausen","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108971","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108971","url":null,"abstract":"Human activities are inherently embedded into the environment and must stay within the limits of our planet. Nuclear power is highlighted as a low-carbon technology to mitigate climate change by industry and sometimes by academia and in politics. From a system perspective, it is inevitable to shed light on the accumulation of long-lived and hazardous radioactive materials stemming from the operation of nuclear power plants. Only recently, the planetary boundary (PB) framework (re-)emphasized radioactive material but without further investigation. This paper aims to bridge this conceptual gap by conceptualizing human-made radioactive materials into the PB framework. We first review the development of the PB concept, emphasizing the novel entities boundary, and summarize previous approaches and variables. We then argue for a planetary perspective on radionuclides as a concern, proposing their inclusion as a sub-boundary within the novel entities PB. Therefore, this paper specifies “anthropogenically mobilized radioactive materials”, proposes potential control variables, and provides the first detailed analysis in this context. We conclude by discussing the implications of the precautionary principle and the concept of a “safe operating space” for radioactive materials to address radioactive materials in the global sustainability context.","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"2633 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146209514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-13DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108968
Ivan Savin , Jeroen van den Bergh
To mitigate climate change, policy measures should not only be effective but also politically viable. Views of citizens are vital in this regard as they underlie voting outcomes and subsequent political decisions. The present study presents results from a public survey conducted in 13 EU countries about public support for climate policy measures. This involves analyzing 1266 open textual responses and identifying thirteen main topics. We compare the prevalence of topics between EU countries and assess how topics relate to average support for climate policy and opinions on economic growth. More prevalent topics relate to sector-specific strategies, such as aimed at waste and transport, which are relatively popular among female respondents. Only about 25% of responses mention concrete policy instruments, such as direct regulation or carbon pricing. This may indicate inadequate awareness of policy details among European citizens and contribute to limited public support for climate policy in general. Surprisingly, people claiming to have a good understanding of climate policy suggest a vague strategy like reducing consumption instead of concrete policy measures. Opponents of climate policy are found especially in Eastern European countries. Our findings point at the need for more information provision to citizens about policy details and effectiveness.
{"title":"Opinions of EU citizens about climate policy in their own words","authors":"Ivan Savin , Jeroen van den Bergh","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108968","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108968","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To mitigate climate change, policy measures should not only be effective but also politically viable. Views of citizens are vital in this regard as they underlie voting outcomes and subsequent political decisions. The present study presents results from a public survey conducted in 13 EU countries about public support for climate policy measures. This involves analyzing 1266 open textual responses and identifying thirteen main topics. We compare the prevalence of topics between EU countries and assess how topics relate to average support for climate policy and opinions on economic growth. More prevalent topics relate to sector-specific strategies, such as aimed at waste and transport, which are relatively popular among female respondents. Only about 25% of responses mention concrete policy instruments, such as direct regulation or carbon pricing. This may indicate inadequate awareness of policy details among European citizens and contribute to limited public support for climate policy in general. Surprisingly, people claiming to have a good understanding of climate policy suggest a vague strategy like reducing consumption instead of concrete policy measures. Opponents of climate policy are found especially in Eastern European countries. Our findings point at the need for more information provision to citizens about policy details and effectiveness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 108968"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146174853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-12DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108953
Rajabrata Banerjee , Vandana Arya , Saikat Sinha Roy
This paper examines the effectiveness of foreign aid in the agricultural sector in the presence of climate variability. Climate variability, measured by fluctuations in temperature and precipitation rates, can disrupt production and, in particular, lower agricultural productivity and access to food. On the other hand, foreign aid in agriculture is targeted towards low- and middle-income countries to increase people's welfare and strengthen governments' development goals. Using data from 53 countries during 1990–2019, this study examines the effect of different types of agricultural aid on agricultural labour productivity in the presence of climate change shocks. In particular, four distinct channels of agricultural aid are considered, viz. Education, R&D, Policy, and Services. We find that R&D aid is the most effective channel in mitigating the adverse effects of climate variability. These results are robust to endogeneity biases and alternative estimation techniques. Findings from this study have substantial policy implications, as we show that aid effectively mitigates the impacts of climate change and presents sustainable growth opportunities for poor and developing countries.
{"title":"Can foreign aid mitigate the effects of climate variability in agriculture? Evidence from the low-and middle-income countries","authors":"Rajabrata Banerjee , Vandana Arya , Saikat Sinha Roy","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108953","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108953","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the effectiveness of foreign aid in the agricultural sector in the presence of climate variability. Climate variability, measured by fluctuations in temperature and precipitation rates, can disrupt production and, in particular, lower agricultural productivity and access to food. On the other hand, foreign aid in agriculture is targeted towards low- and middle-income countries to increase people's welfare and strengthen governments' development goals. Using data from 53 countries during 1990–2019, this study examines the effect of different types of agricultural aid on agricultural labour productivity in the presence of climate change shocks. In particular, four distinct channels of agricultural aid are considered, viz. Education, R&D, Policy, and Services. We find that R&D aid is the most effective channel in mitigating the adverse effects of climate variability. These results are robust to endogeneity biases and alternative estimation techniques. Findings from this study have substantial policy implications, as we show that aid effectively mitigates the impacts of climate change and presents sustainable growth opportunities for poor and developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 108953"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146161051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-11DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108955
Jukka Kilgus , Trisha R. Shrum
Studies have shown that many people prioritize environmental protection over some levels of economic growth, even when tradeoffs exist. However, to date, most research on these tradeoffs has primarily been conducted in the Global North and has lacked cross-country comparisons. We elevate this research to a global level by analyzing data from the World Values Survey across 92 countries, focusing on how people's prioritization relates to demographic and socio-economic factors. Our results confirm previous findings that a majority of the global population favors environmental protection over economic growth (57.99%), especially in high-income countries in Western Europe, the Americas, and Oceania, as well as in Southeast Asia. Across the global average and in many countries, stronger support for the environment is found among more educated people, those leaning politically to the left, females, and younger individuals. Income does not have a significant effect on the global scale. However, and this is where our study offers new insights, the analyzed demographic and socio-economic factors have fundamentally different effects on prioritization within individual country samples. Especially in non-Western countries, the often-expected predictors for environmental support do not behave as anticipated. While our results cannot be interpreted as direct public support for post-growth systems change, they indicate that diverse groups of people, distinct across countries, support placing less emphasis on economic growth and more on the environment. Politicians and world leaders need to consider this when deciding on future political priorities.
{"title":"Global public opinion on tradeoffs between environmental protection and economic growth","authors":"Jukka Kilgus , Trisha R. Shrum","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108955","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108955","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Studies have shown that many people prioritize environmental protection over some levels of economic growth, even when tradeoffs exist. However, to date, most research on these tradeoffs has primarily been conducted in the Global North and has lacked cross-country comparisons. We elevate this research to a global level by analyzing data from the World Values Survey across 92 countries, focusing on how people's prioritization relates to demographic and socio-economic factors. Our results confirm previous findings that a majority of the global population favors environmental protection over economic growth (57.99%), especially in high-income countries in Western Europe, the Americas, and Oceania, as well as in Southeast Asia. Across the global average and in many countries, stronger support for the environment is found among more educated people, those leaning politically to the left, females, and younger individuals. Income does not have a significant effect on the global scale. However, and this is where our study offers new insights, the analyzed demographic and socio-economic factors have fundamentally different effects on prioritization within individual country samples. Especially in non-Western countries, the often-expected predictors for environmental support do not behave as anticipated. While our results cannot be interpreted as direct public support for post-growth systems change, they indicate that diverse groups of people, distinct across countries, support placing less emphasis on economic growth and more on the environment. Politicians and world leaders need to consider this when deciding on future political priorities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 108955"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146161053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-11DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108965
Cristina C. Nuñez Godoy , Gisela S. Córdoba , Federico Colombo Speroni , Leonidas O. Girardin
Forests, while crucial ecosystems for ecosystem services provision, face challenges such as deforestation and degradation, resulting in adverse social and ecological consequences. The Gran Chaco, a deforestation hotspot and vast dry forest in South America urgently demands landholder engagement in forest conservation. Innovative solutions, such as sustainable management practices are essential for long-term forest conservation and landholders' well-being. Landholders hold responsibility for extensive forested areas, and little is known about their diverse motivations and capabilities to engage in conservation within sustainable management practices. We used the Qmethod to investigate landholders' decision to allocate an exclusive area for conservation within their farmlands. Our results revealed four perspectives on their decision-making process: (a) Chaco forest appreciation and farmland residency, (b) farmland infrastructure and social support, (c) local roots and residence stability, and (d) external rewards. Understanding landholders' decision-making process might aids policymakers in designing effective forest conservation policies and promoting sustainable practices.
{"title":"Interpreting the willingness and ability of rural producers to engage in conservation efforts in the Chaco forest of Argentina","authors":"Cristina C. Nuñez Godoy , Gisela S. Córdoba , Federico Colombo Speroni , Leonidas O. Girardin","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108965","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108965","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Forests, while crucial ecosystems for ecosystem services provision, face challenges such as deforestation and degradation, resulting in adverse social and ecological consequences. The Gran Chaco, a deforestation hotspot and vast dry forest in South America urgently demands landholder engagement in forest conservation. Innovative solutions, such as sustainable management practices are essential for long-term forest conservation and landholders' well-being. Landholders hold responsibility for extensive forested areas, and little is known about their diverse motivations and capabilities to engage in conservation within sustainable management practices. We used the Qmethod to investigate landholders' decision to allocate an exclusive area for conservation within their farmlands. Our results revealed four perspectives on their decision-making process: (a) Chaco forest appreciation and farmland residency, (b) farmland infrastructure and social support, (c) local roots and residence stability, and (d) external rewards. Understanding landholders' decision-making process might aids policymakers in designing effective forest conservation policies and promoting sustainable practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 108965"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146152993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-07DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108947
Fander Falconí , Rafael Burbano , Pedro Cango , Ruthy Intriago
The aim of this article is to examine the causes of the increase in material extraction in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in a context of weak relative dematerialization. It argues that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, far from reducing pressure on natural resources, has driven the expansion of extraction by sustaining a growth pattern based on material-intensive activities. In this context, the article analyses the causes and consequences of this intensification between 1970 and 2023, highlighting its negative impacts on ecosystems and the emergence of social conflicts, and incorporates a comparative perspective with other world regions. The results, based on a VAR model, show that in LAC and South America extraction increases in response to economic growth, as expressed by GDP; and, using a PVAR model and Granger causality tests reveals that LAC extraction affects only fossil fuel exports. In South America, there is bidirectional causality between extraction and fossil fuel exports, while biomass exports depend on extraction. These findings stress the urgent need to redirect economic strategies toward more sustainable and equitable development models in the region.
{"title":"Extraction and dematerialization in Latin America, 1970–2023","authors":"Fander Falconí , Rafael Burbano , Pedro Cango , Ruthy Intriago","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108947","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108947","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The aim of this article is to examine the causes of the increase in material extraction in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in a context of weak relative dematerialization. It argues that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, far from reducing pressure on natural resources, has driven the expansion of extraction by sustaining a growth pattern based on material-intensive activities. In this context, the article analyses the causes and consequences of this intensification between 1970 and 2023, highlighting its negative impacts on ecosystems and the emergence of social conflicts, and incorporates a comparative perspective with other world regions. The results, based on a VAR model, show that in LAC and South America extraction increases in response to economic growth, as expressed by GDP; and, using a PVAR model and Granger causality tests reveals that LAC extraction affects only fossil fuel exports. In South America, there is bidirectional causality between extraction and fossil fuel exports, while biomass exports depend on extraction. These findings stress the urgent need to redirect economic strategies toward more sustainable and equitable development models in the region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 108947"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146135183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-07DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108951
Shangze Dai , Xinde James Ji
Automation technologies enhance production efficiency, offering potential for sustainable development. Yet, by deepening economic dependence on inherently emission-intensive capital investment, automation may inadvertently increase carbon emissions in economies with transforming industrial and production structure. We investigate this hypothesis first through a conceptual framework incorporating heterogeneous production and industrial components. We then test this using panel data from China's second-level administrative (prefecture) units from 2007 to 2021, estimating both short-run and medium-run effects using fixed-effects and long-difference estimators. Results suggest that automation technology, measured by per capita patents, is associated with increased carbon intensity. This positive effect persists over the short- to medium-term, indicating limited mitigation through structural adaptation. This persistence highlights the inertia of emission structures even amid technological progress. The impact is larger in western and industrial regions, reflecting regional disparities in industrial composition and adaptive capacity. We further examine four mediating channels that reflect capital dependence—relative marginal productivity of capital, capital misallocation, per capita capital stock, and temporary migration—and further conduct sectoral regressions to capture heterogeneity across industrial structures. Together, these analyses reveal that capital dependence and structural change to be important channels through which the automation‑carbon intensity relationship manifests, which reveals complex environmental trade-offs from automation. Overall, the findings provide new evidence that automation may generate unintended environmental costs, calling for policy coordination between industrial upgrading and decarbonization strategies.
{"title":"Unintended carbon cost of automation technology in transforming economies: The role of capital dependence and structure change","authors":"Shangze Dai , Xinde James Ji","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108951","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108951","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Automation technologies enhance production efficiency, offering potential for sustainable development. Yet, by deepening economic dependence on inherently emission-intensive capital investment, automation may inadvertently increase carbon emissions in economies with transforming industrial and production structure. We investigate this hypothesis first through a conceptual framework incorporating heterogeneous production and industrial components. We then test this using panel data from China's second-level administrative (prefecture) units from 2007 to 2021, estimating both short-run and medium-run effects using fixed-effects and long-difference estimators. Results suggest that automation technology, measured by per capita patents, is associated with increased carbon intensity. This positive effect persists over the short- to medium-term, indicating limited mitigation through structural adaptation. This persistence highlights the inertia of emission structures even amid technological progress. The impact is larger in western and industrial regions, reflecting regional disparities in industrial composition and adaptive capacity. We further examine four mediating channels that reflect capital dependence—relative marginal productivity of capital, capital misallocation, per capita capital stock, and temporary migration—and further conduct sectoral regressions to capture heterogeneity across industrial structures. Together, these analyses reveal that capital dependence and structural change to be important channels through which the automation‑carbon intensity relationship manifests, which reveals complex environmental trade-offs from automation. Overall, the findings provide new evidence that automation may generate unintended environmental costs, calling for policy coordination between industrial upgrading and decarbonization strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 108951"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146135186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：