Pub Date : 2025-02-18DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108547
Esther Schuch , Tum Nhim , Andries Richter
The tendency to cooperate in social dilemma situations strongly depends on how the decision is framed. Cooperation levels are higher in decisions that involve doing something good to others, rather than avoiding harm. This insight mostly comes from linear public goods games. We conduct a threshold public goods game – framed as a public good or public bad – that requires players to coordinate on a threshold. We find that the level of cooperation and group success in reaching the threshold are higher in a positive than a negative frame. We find the role of beliefs to be salient, as players hold more optimistic beliefs about contributions of others in the negative frame. Generally, contributions exceed the best-response, but are not sufficient to close the gap between the too optimistic beliefs and actual contributions in the negative frame. Hence, contributions and group success are lower in the public bad game.
{"title":"Coordinating on good and bad outcomes in threshold games – Evidence from an artefactual field experiment in Cambodia","authors":"Esther Schuch , Tum Nhim , Andries Richter","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108547","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108547","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The tendency to cooperate in social dilemma situations strongly depends on how the decision is framed. Cooperation levels are higher in decisions that involve doing something good to others, rather than avoiding harm. This insight mostly comes from linear public goods games. We conduct a threshold public goods game – framed as a public good or public bad – that requires players to coordinate on a threshold. We find that the level of cooperation and group success in reaching the threshold are higher in a positive than a negative frame. We find the role of beliefs to be salient, as players hold more optimistic beliefs about contributions of others in the negative frame. Generally, contributions exceed the best-response, but are not sufficient to close the gap between the too optimistic beliefs and actual contributions in the negative frame. Hence, contributions and group success are lower in the public bad game.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"232 ","pages":"Article 108547"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143437612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-18DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108560
Marta García-Velasco Garzás , María J. Ruiz-Fuensanta
It is widely acknowledged that the progress towards a Circular Economy (CE) model in the European Union (EU) necessitates the cooperation of all levels of government. Nevertheless, empirical research predominantly adopts a national standpoint, disregarding the role of regions. Employing a multilevel model and spatial econometric methods, we examine the factors influencing the expansion of CE in EU regions, considering both regional and national aspects. The findings indicate that the expansion of CE endeavours in the EU mainly depends on regional factors. The regional knowledge base favours the expansion of CE-related business, while national public policies fail to promote them.
{"title":"Analysing the expansion of the circular economy in the European Union: How important is the regional context?","authors":"Marta García-Velasco Garzás , María J. Ruiz-Fuensanta","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108560","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108560","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>It is widely acknowledged that the progress towards a Circular Economy (CE) model in the European Union (EU) necessitates the cooperation of all levels of government. Nevertheless, empirical research predominantly adopts a national standpoint, disregarding the role of regions. Employing a multilevel model and spatial econometric methods, we examine the factors influencing the expansion of CE in EU regions, considering both regional and national aspects. The findings indicate that the expansion of CE endeavours in the EU mainly depends on regional factors. The regional knowledge base favours the expansion of CE-related business, while national public policies fail to promote them.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 108560"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143429778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Unprecedented avian influenza (AI) outbreaks are causing colossal ecological and socio-economic consequences. The economic costs of managing AI risks and impacts are also swelling – a burden that falls partly upon the public sector in many industrialized countries. Yet, clear figures on these costs of AI management - particularly as born by the public sector - are hard to come by and/or generally unknown. We posit that public support to manage AI, such as of monitoring, research, planning and outbreak response, can be considered as another agricultural subsidy, and thus constitutes a topic of public concern. We present the results of an assessment of the public costs of responding to AI in Denmark, a country with substantial animal agriculture and a site of worsening HPAI outbreaks especially since 2020. This contribution issues several contributions: i) insight into a cost-mapping of AI management - the difficulty of which is important in itself, ii) a call for similar inquiry elsewhere, particularly across the EU given common veterinary and financial frameworks, and iii) critical questions for subsequent research that follow such rising costs and their implications - which are pertinent to many countries struggling against more widespread and pernicious infectious disease with pandemic potential.
{"title":"Who pays for the ‘pandemic era’ of rising infectious disease in animal production? Emerging questions and dilemmas for states, society, and academia","authors":"Rebecca Leigh Rutt, Niels Vasconcellos Nielsen, Henning Otte Hansen","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108550","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108550","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Unprecedented avian influenza (AI) outbreaks are causing colossal ecological and socio-economic consequences. The economic costs of managing AI risks and impacts are also swelling – a burden that falls partly upon the public sector in many industrialized countries. Yet, clear figures on these costs of AI management - particularly as born by the public sector - are hard to come by and/or generally unknown. We posit that public support to manage AI, such as of monitoring, research, planning and outbreak response, can be considered as another agricultural subsidy, and thus constitutes a topic of public concern. We present the results of an assessment of the public costs of responding to AI in Denmark, a country with substantial animal agriculture and a site of worsening HPAI outbreaks especially since 2020. This contribution issues several contributions: i) insight into a cost-mapping of AI management - the difficulty of which is important in itself, ii) a call for similar inquiry elsewhere, particularly across the EU given common veterinary and financial frameworks, and iii) critical questions for subsequent research that follow such rising costs and their implications - which are pertinent to many countries struggling against more widespread and pernicious infectious disease with pandemic potential.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 108550"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143421799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-17DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108545
Filippos K. Zisopoulos , Brian D. Fath , Bruno Meirelles de Oliveira , Susana Toboso-Chavero , Hugo D'Assenza-David , Vitor Miranda de Souza , Hao Huang , Şerban Scrieciu , O. Grant Clark , Dominik Noll , Simron Singh , Alexandros Stefanakis , Graham Boyd , Daan Schraven , Martin de Jong
An ecological metaphor can enable transitions towards regenerative circular economies. Yet, this potential remains latent because its conceptual development, which is a prerequisite for its practical operationalization, is in its incipient phase and largely vague. To strengthen its epistemological underpinning, we propose a forward-looking interdisciplinary research agenda which brings together theories, ontological positions, analytical approaches, and strategies of action from ecological economics, panarchy theory, socio-metabolic research, process ecology, environ network theory, the constructal law, nature-based solutions, complexity economics, doughnut economics, regenerative economics, and ergodicity economics. The agenda facilitates the concentration, consolidation, and acceleration of theoretical and methodological innovation for the generation and accumulation of a diverse yet coherent body of knowledge on the interpretation of the process of regeneration and for illuminating the ways in which regenerative circular economies may function.
{"title":"Towards an ecological metaphor for regenerative circular economies","authors":"Filippos K. Zisopoulos , Brian D. Fath , Bruno Meirelles de Oliveira , Susana Toboso-Chavero , Hugo D'Assenza-David , Vitor Miranda de Souza , Hao Huang , Şerban Scrieciu , O. Grant Clark , Dominik Noll , Simron Singh , Alexandros Stefanakis , Graham Boyd , Daan Schraven , Martin de Jong","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108545","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108545","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An ecological metaphor can enable transitions towards regenerative circular economies. Yet, this potential remains latent because its conceptual development, which is a prerequisite for its practical operationalization, is in its incipient phase and largely vague. To strengthen its epistemological underpinning, we propose a forward-looking interdisciplinary research agenda which brings together theories, ontological positions, analytical approaches, and strategies of action from ecological economics, panarchy theory, socio-metabolic research, process ecology, environ network theory, the constructal law, nature-based solutions, complexity economics, doughnut economics, regenerative economics, and ergodicity economics. The agenda facilitates the concentration, consolidation, and acceleration of theoretical and methodological innovation for the generation and accumulation of a diverse yet coherent body of knowledge on the interpretation of the process of regeneration and for illuminating the ways in which regenerative circular economies may function.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 108545"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143429779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-17DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108546
Kilian Kuhla, Patryk Kubiczek, Christian Otto
The concentration of crop production in a few global breadbaskets and strong import dependencies of many developing countries render global grain markets susceptible to systemic shocks from weather- or conflict-induced supply failures. Often amplified by unilateral policy responses, such as export restrictions, the resulting short-term risks to global food security are substantial but insufficiently captured by established modeling approaches. Here, we present Agrimate, a dynamic agent-based agricultural market model. Explicitly accounting for commercial and strategic stockholding, and endogenously modeling supply- and demand-side responses, Agrimate describes the spreading of supply failures in international grain trade networks and associated price effects with high temporal resolution. For the major food grain wheat, we show that Agrimate can quantitatively reproduce monthly world market price hikes and annual changes in regional supply, consumption, and stocks during the 2007/08 and 2010/11 world food crises. Further, we study potential food security risks arising from multi-breadbasket failures. We find that in a world, the risk of severe (90th percentile) price hikes more than doubles, while the risk of severe regional consumption losses increases by up to 130%, compared to 2006–2015 climate conditions. Our modeling shows that Agrimate can provide policy-relevant insights into the spreading of food security risks.
{"title":"Understanding agricultural market dynamics in times of crisis: The dynamic agent-based network model Agrimate","authors":"Kilian Kuhla, Patryk Kubiczek, Christian Otto","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108546","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108546","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The concentration of crop production in a few global breadbaskets and strong import dependencies of many developing countries render global grain markets susceptible to systemic shocks from weather- or conflict-induced supply failures. Often amplified by unilateral policy responses, such as export restrictions, the resulting short-term risks to global food security are substantial but insufficiently captured by established modeling approaches. Here, we present <em>Agrimate</em>, a dynamic agent-based agricultural market model. Explicitly accounting for commercial and strategic stockholding, and endogenously modeling supply- and demand-side responses, <em>Agrimate</em> describes the spreading of supply failures in international grain trade networks and associated price effects with high temporal resolution. For the major food grain wheat, we show that <em>Agrimate</em> can quantitatively reproduce monthly world market price hikes and annual changes in regional supply, consumption, and stocks during the 2007/08 and 2010/11 world food crises. Further, we study potential food security risks arising from multi-breadbasket failures. We find that in a <span><math><mrow><mo>+</mo><mn>2</mn><mspace></mspace><mo>°</mo><mi>C</mi></mrow></math></span>world, the risk of severe (90th percentile) price hikes more than doubles, while the risk of severe regional consumption losses increases by up to 130%, compared to 2006–2015 climate conditions. Our modeling shows that <em>Agrimate</em> can provide policy-relevant insights into the spreading of food security risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 108546"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143421798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-14DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108541
A. Urrego-Mesa , J. Infante-Amate , E. Tello
Agrarian transformations in tropical regions, driven by fossil-fuel inputs and export-oriented specialization, have caused significant ecological and climatic challenges. Assessing the historical and current patterns of these systems is essential for understanding global biomass production dynamics and addressing their impacts. This study employs long-term agroecological energy analysis (AEA) to examine the efficiency and sustainability of biomass production during the transition from traditional-organic to intensive-conventional systems. While AEA has primarily focused on temperate agriculture in developed regions, this study presents a case of tropical export-oriented farming, analyzing the socio-ecological transition of Colombian agriculture from 1915 to 2015 at an annual resolution, covering crops, livestock, and forestry.
We quantify bioeconomic and agroecological energy flows and returns, providing a chronological examination through structural break analysis and comparisons with temperate agriculture. Findings reveal early energy gains linked to crop share increases and initial intensification under extensive livestock and coffee expansion. However, as tropical agriculture intensified and re-entered global markets, energy returns declined sharply. This shift began in the 1980s and accelerated after the early 2000s, marking a distinct transition from patterns observed in temperate regions. This transition from land-intensive to energy-intensive agriculture provides a valuable long-term perspective on the challenges and dynamics of tropical farming systems.
{"title":"The shadow of tropical agriculture: Energy transition of Colombian trade-driven agriculture in the 20th century","authors":"A. Urrego-Mesa , J. Infante-Amate , E. Tello","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108541","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108541","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agrarian transformations in tropical regions, driven by fossil-fuel inputs and export-oriented specialization, have caused significant ecological and climatic challenges. Assessing the historical and current patterns of these systems is essential for understanding global biomass production dynamics and addressing their impacts. This study employs long-term agroecological energy analysis (AEA) to examine the efficiency and sustainability of biomass production during the transition from traditional-organic to intensive-conventional systems. While AEA has primarily focused on temperate agriculture in developed regions, this study presents a case of tropical export-oriented farming, analyzing the socio-ecological transition of Colombian agriculture from 1915 to 2015 at an annual resolution, covering crops, livestock, and forestry.</div><div>We quantify bioeconomic and agroecological energy flows and returns, providing a chronological examination through structural break analysis and comparisons with temperate agriculture. Findings reveal early energy gains linked to crop share increases and initial intensification under extensive livestock and coffee expansion. However, as tropical agriculture intensified and re-entered global markets, energy returns declined sharply. This shift began in the 1980s and accelerated after the early 2000s, marking a distinct transition from patterns observed in temperate regions. This transition from land-intensive to energy-intensive agriculture provides a valuable long-term perspective on the challenges and dynamics of tropical farming systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 108541"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143418543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-11DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108543
Daniel Osberghaus , W.J. Wouter Botzen , Martin Kesternich
Using a large unique longitudinal survey data set from Germany covering more than 5000 households, we analyze stated intentions and actual implementations of both flood-proofing and heat stress reduction measures to assess the intention behavior gap (IBG) in climate change adaptation. Our results do not only reveal a substantial IBG for most stated intentions, but also show their limits in serving as a good predictor for realized actions later. Moreover, the IBG itself can hardly be explained by observable household data characteristics. While we do find some similarities in explanatory variables affecting both intentions and implementations, these variables provide only little insights into the actual levels of implemented actions. In line with regret theory, the IBG in our data can be partly explained by anticipated regret caused by a feeling of having invested in vain in cases where adaptation measures are installed, but extreme weather events do not occur for the time being. Our results are informative for adaptation-related communication campaigns and public policy interventions, especially in the aftermath of natural disasters.
{"title":"The intention-behavior gap in climate change adaptation: Evidence from longitudinal survey data","authors":"Daniel Osberghaus , W.J. Wouter Botzen , Martin Kesternich","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108543","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108543","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a large unique longitudinal survey data set from Germany covering more than 5000 households, we analyze stated intentions and actual implementations of both flood-proofing and heat stress reduction measures to assess the intention behavior gap (IBG) in climate change adaptation. Our results do not only reveal a substantial IBG for most stated intentions, but also show their limits in serving as a good predictor for realized actions later. Moreover, the IBG itself can hardly be explained by observable household data characteristics. While we do find some similarities in explanatory variables affecting both intentions and implementations, these variables provide only little insights into the actual levels of implemented actions. In line with regret theory, the IBG in our data can be partly explained by anticipated regret caused by a feeling of having invested in vain in cases where adaptation measures are installed, but extreme weather events do not occur for the time being. Our results are informative for adaptation-related communication campaigns and public policy interventions, especially in the aftermath of natural disasters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 108543"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143378809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-10DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108533
Francisco Mango , Rose Camille Vincent
Subnational governments have progressively raised their share in the global flow of resources, knowledge, and standard-setting power to combat climate change, leveraging the channels of transnational networks and commitments to carbon neutrality, often exceeding the ambitions of central administrations. This paper explores whether polycentric climate governance, characterized by overlapping decision-making across governance levels, accelerates the transition to the circular economy. Using a novel dataset on SNG climate expenditures spanning 30 European countries from 2001 to 2019, we assess their impact on resource productivity (RP)—a key indicator of the circular economy, defined as GDP per kilogram of raw material consumption. The analysis employs a Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) model to address heteroskedasticity, serial correlation, and cross-sectional dependence. To further ensure robustness, we implement instrumental variable techniques (IV-GMM), leveraging geographical fragmentation and climatic variation to address potential endogeneity. The results demonstrate that SNG climate-sensitive expenditures significantly enhance RP, with every $100 increase in per capita spending leading to measurable improvements in resource efficiency. In contrast, CG spending exhibits limited or even negative effects on RP, underscoring the unique capacity of SNGs to foster economic dematerialization. Mechanisms driving these effects include investments in waste management, energy, and transport systems, where SNGs outperform CGs in fostering localized and tailored solutions. These findings highlight the importance of empowering SNGs within polycentric governance frameworks to advance the circular economy and achieve sustainable growth. The study contributes to the literature by offering one of the first empirical analyses linking SNG spending to the circular economy.
{"title":"Does polycentric climate governance drive the circular economy? Evidence from subnational spending and dematerialization of production in the EU","authors":"Francisco Mango , Rose Camille Vincent","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108533","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108533","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Subnational governments have progressively raised their share in the global flow of resources, knowledge, and standard-setting power to combat climate change, leveraging the channels of transnational networks and commitments to carbon neutrality, often exceeding the ambitions of central administrations. This paper explores whether polycentric climate governance, characterized by overlapping decision-making across governance levels, accelerates the transition to the circular economy. Using a novel dataset on SNG climate expenditures spanning 30 European countries from 2001 to 2019, we assess their impact on resource productivity (RP)—a key indicator of the circular economy, defined as GDP per kilogram of raw material consumption. The analysis employs a Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) model to address heteroskedasticity, serial correlation, and cross-sectional dependence. To further ensure robustness, we implement instrumental variable techniques (IV-GMM), leveraging geographical fragmentation and climatic variation to address potential endogeneity. The results demonstrate that SNG climate-sensitive expenditures significantly enhance RP, with every $100 increase in per capita spending leading to measurable improvements in resource efficiency. In contrast, CG spending exhibits limited or even negative effects on RP, underscoring the unique capacity of SNGs to foster economic dematerialization. Mechanisms driving these effects include investments in waste management, energy, and transport systems, where SNGs outperform CGs in fostering localized and tailored solutions. These findings highlight the importance of empowering SNGs within polycentric governance frameworks to advance the circular economy and achieve sustainable growth. The study contributes to the literature by offering one of the first empirical analyses linking SNG spending to the circular economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 108533"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143376733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-10DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108544
Carina Ober, Carolin Canessa, Fabian Frick, Johannes Sauer
The voluntary character of agri-environmental-climate schemes (AECS) makes it essential for their design to meet farmers' expectations and stakeholders' needs. To enhance the understanding of how behavioural factors influence farmers' participation decisions and how policymakers can shape them through scheme design, we explore stakeholders' preferences for biodiversity-enhancing AECS using Q-methodology in two case studies: arable land and grassland in Bavaria (Germany). The Q-analysis revealed three perspectives on scheme design, each favouring a distinct AECS with differing levels of conservation intensity. To further investigate the interactions between behavioural patterns influencing decision-making and their influence on AECS design, we uniquely analyse the follow-up interviews from the Q-method using thematic analysis. This additional step uncovers the cognitive, social, and dispositional factors driving the Q-sorting decision, which should be considered during scheme design. These factors include knowledge requirements, perceived costs and benefits, flexibility preference, and risk aversion. While confirming the external validity of previous studies advocating a combination of both ‘broad and shallow’ and ‘deep and narrow’ approaches in scheme designs, our findings emphasize the crucial importance of considering the interaction between behavioural factors and scheme design attributes during the policy development of AECS.
{"title":"The role of behavioural factors in accepting agri-environmental contracts – Evidence from a Q-method and thematic analysis in Germany","authors":"Carina Ober, Carolin Canessa, Fabian Frick, Johannes Sauer","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108544","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108544","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The voluntary character of agri-environmental-climate schemes (AECS) makes it essential for their design to meet farmers' expectations and stakeholders' needs. To enhance the understanding of how behavioural factors influence farmers' participation decisions and how policymakers can shape them through scheme design, we explore stakeholders' preferences for biodiversity-enhancing AECS using Q-methodology in two case studies: arable land and grassland in Bavaria (Germany). The Q-analysis revealed three perspectives on scheme design, each favouring a distinct AECS with differing levels of conservation intensity. To further investigate the interactions between behavioural patterns influencing decision-making and their influence on AECS design, we uniquely analyse the follow-up interviews from the Q-method using thematic analysis. This additional step uncovers the cognitive, social, and dispositional factors driving the Q-sorting decision, which should be considered during scheme design. These factors include knowledge requirements, perceived costs and benefits, flexibility preference, and risk aversion. While confirming the external validity of previous studies advocating a combination of both ‘broad and shallow’ and ‘deep and narrow’ approaches in scheme designs, our findings emphasize the crucial importance of considering the interaction between behavioural factors and scheme design attributes during the policy development of AECS.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 108544"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143376658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper constructs an empirical, multi-sectoral, open-economy Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) model to assess the long-term macroeconomic impact of a sustained climate-induced decline in Tunisia's agricultural production. Our framework captures the main interactions between climate-driven agricultural impacts, the real economy, and the financial system. We empirically calibrate our model using a large set of datasets including national accounts, input-output tables, balance of payments, banking sector balance sheets and agricultural production projections from crop models. We then simulate the model for the period 2018–2050. Our results show that the costs of inaction in the face of declining agricultural production are dire for Tunisia. The economy will face high unemployment and inflation, growing internal and external macroeconomic imbalances, and a looming balance of payments crisis, especially if global food inflation remains high in the coming decades. We then simulate two possible adaptation scenarios envisaged by policymakers and show that adaptation investments in water resources, increased water efficiency in production, and a public, investment-driven big push can put the economy back on a sustainable path in the long-run.
{"title":"Climate change, loss of agricultural output and the macroeconomy: The case of Tunisia","authors":"Sakir Devrim Yilmaz , Sawsen Ben-Nasr , Achilleas Mantes , Nihed Ben-Khalifa , Issam Daghari","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108512","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108512","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper constructs an empirical, multi-sectoral, open-economy Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) model to assess the long-term macroeconomic impact of a sustained climate-induced decline in Tunisia's agricultural production. Our framework captures the main interactions between climate-driven agricultural impacts, the real economy, and the financial system. We empirically calibrate our model using a large set of datasets including national accounts, input-output tables, balance of payments, banking sector balance sheets and agricultural production projections from crop models. We then simulate the model for the period 2018–2050. Our results show that the costs of inaction in the face of declining agricultural production are dire for Tunisia. The economy will face high unemployment and inflation, growing internal and external macroeconomic imbalances, and a looming balance of payments crisis, especially if global food inflation remains high in the coming decades. We then simulate two possible adaptation scenarios envisaged by policymakers and show that adaptation investments in water resources, increased water efficiency in production, and a public, investment-driven big push can put the economy back on a sustainable path in the long-run.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 108512"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143376734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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