Analysis of cutaneous leishmaniasis among military personnel in the Islamic Republic of Iran: a spatiotemporal study between 2018 and 2022, trend forecasting based on ARIMA model.

Abstract

Background: Cutaneous leishmaniasis is one of the few infectious diseases whose global prevalence is on the rise. Iran ranks among the eight most affected countries in the world. Iranian military personnel are often sent to endemic areas for cutaneous leishmaniasis without prior immunity, and they have fewer health facilities in military centers than the general population. This study aims to comprehensively investigate the situation of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iranian military personnel across all units from 2018 to 2022 and predict the disease trend using time series analysis up to the end of 2025.

Methods: We analyzed data from the Iranian Ministry of Health to perform spatiotemporal and descriptive analyses based on patient frequency. Variables examined included age distribution, cutaneous leishmaniasis types (zoonotic or anthroponotic), month of healthcare facility visits, and lesion locations. This study employed the ARIMA model (p = 2, d = 0, q = 1)(P = 3, D = 0, Q = 0), for time series analysis and forecasting the disease trend up to 36 months after 2022.

Results: Over five years, 2,894 patients were reported. The Esfahan, Khuzestan, and Ilam provinces had the highest average patient counts, with hot spots primarily found in central, south, southwestern, and western Iran. Although the total number of patients with zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis was almost equal to anthroponotic cutaneous leishmaniasis, in high-risk provinces such as Esfahan, Khuzestan, and Ilam, the confirmed cases of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis were much more than anthroponotic cutaneous leishmaniasis. patient numbers peak in October and November. Demographic analysis revealed that younger patients outnumbered older patients. Lesion locations were frequent on the forelimbs and lower limbs. The time series analysis for 36 months after 2022 indicated the seasonal pattern of the disease and predicted an upward trend after 2022.

Conclusion: While overall cases have declined, provinces such as Esfahan exhibit an upward trend. The expansion of hotspots from the west and southwestern to the center and south of Iran, coupled with an increasing trend in time series analysis, suggests the potential emergence of new foci and a rise in patient numbers in the future. In provinces with high disease prevalence, preventive measures should be prioritized, particularly in Ilam, Khuzestan, and Esfahan.