Information Cascade Popularity Prediction via Probabilistic Diffusion

Abstract

Information cascade popularity prediction is an important problem in social network content diffusion analysis. Various facets have been investigated (e.g., diffusion structures and patterns, user influence) and, recently, deep learning models based on sequential architecture and graph neural network (GNN) have been leveraged. However, despite the improvements attained in predicting the future popularity, these methodologies fail to capture two essential aspects inherent to information diffusion: (1) the temporal irregularity of cascade event – i.e., users’ re-tweetings at random and non-periodic time instants; and (2) the inherent uncertainty of the information diffusion. To address these challenges, in this work, we present CasDO – a novel framework for information cascade popularity prediction with probabilistic diffusion models and neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We devise a temporal ODE network to generalize the discrete state transitions in RNNs to continuous-time dynamics. CasDO introduces a probabilistic diffusion model to consider the uncertainties in information diffusion by injecting noises in the forwarding process and reconstructing cascade embedding in the reversing process. Extensive experiments that we conducted on three large-scale datasets demonstrate the advantages of the CasDO model over baselines.