Temporal trends in the burden of musculoskeletal diseases in China from 1990 to 2021 and predictions for 2021 to 2030

IF 3.5 2区 医学 Q2 ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM Bone Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI:10.1016/j.bone.2024.117332
Yunfa Wang , Bofan Chen , Xinyue Liu , Haimin Zeng , Bin Chen , Zhilin Wang , Qingpiao Yang , Jie Peng , Liang Hao
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Abstract

Background

Musculoskeletal (MSK) diseases represent a significant global public health challenge. Conducting comprehensive research on MSK diseases in China holds profound implications for public health.

Methods

This study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021) to analyze the incidence rate, prevalence rate, mortality rate, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) of MSK diseases in China from 1990 to 2021. Trends were evaluated using annual percentage change (APC), average annual percentage change (AAPC), and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Future disease trends were predicted using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model.

Results

China had the highest number of DALYs cases globally, totaling 30.4194 million. Low back pain (LBP) represented the largest burden, while hand osteoarthritis exhibited the fastest growth. Differences in disease burden were observed across various genders and age groups. Predictions indicate that between 2021 and 2030, the age-standardized DALYs rate in China will increase annually, reaching 1779.08 per 100,000 population by 2030. Environmental (occupational) factors had the most significant impact on the age-standardized DALYs rate, whereas renal dysfunction had the least impact. The SDI showed a moderately strong positive correlation with the age-standardized DALYs rate of MSK diseases.

Conclusion

Over the past 20 years, the prevalence of MSK diseases in China has experienced a slight increase, while other epidemiological burden indicators have shown a downward trend. Projections indicate that the overall disease burden of MSK in China will continue to rise over the next decade, underscoring the need for early intervention strategies. Moreover, substantial differences in MSK disease burden across genders and age groups highlight the importance of developing targeted policy interventions to mitigate this burden.
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1990 年至 2021 年中国肌肉骨骼疾病负担的时间趋势以及 2021 年至 2030 年的预测。
背景:肌肉骨骼(MSK)疾病是全球公共卫生面临的重大挑战。在中国开展有关肌肉骨骼疾病的综合研究对公共卫生具有深远影响:本研究利用《2021 年全球疾病负担》(GBD 2021)的数据,分析了 1990 年至 2021 年期间中国 MSK 疾病的发病率、患病率、死亡率、残疾调整生命年(DALYs)、残疾生存年(YLDs)和生命损失年(YLLs)。趋势评估采用年度百分比变化(APC)、平均年度百分比变化(AAPC)和估计年度百分比变化(EAPC)。采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(BAPC)模型预测未来疾病趋势:结果:中国是全球 DALYs 病例数最多的国家,共计 3,041.94 万例。腰背痛(LBP)造成的负担最大,而手部骨关节炎的增长最快。不同性别和年龄组的疾病负担存在差异。据预测,在 2021 年至 2030 年期间,中国的年龄标准化残疾调整寿命年数将逐年增加,到 2030 年将达到每 10 万人 1779.08 年。环境(职业)因素对年龄标准化残疾调整寿命率的影响最大,而肾功能障碍的影响最小。SDI与MSK疾病的年龄标准化DALYs比率呈中等强度的正相关:结论:在过去的 20 年中,中国的 MSK 疾病患病率略有上升,而其他流行病学负担指标则呈下降趋势。预测表明,未来十年,中国 MSK 的总体疾病负担将继续上升,这凸显了早期干预策略的必要性。此外,不同性别和年龄组之间 MSK 疾病负担的巨大差异凸显了制定有针对性的政策干预措施以减轻这一负担的重要性。
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来源期刊
Bone
Bone 医学-内分泌学与代谢
CiteScore
8.90
自引率
4.90%
发文量
264
审稿时长
30 days
期刊介绍: BONE is an interdisciplinary forum for the rapid publication of original articles and reviews on basic, translational, and clinical aspects of bone and mineral metabolism. The Journal also encourages submissions related to interactions of bone with other organ systems, including cartilage, endocrine, muscle, fat, neural, vascular, gastrointestinal, hematopoietic, and immune systems. Particular attention is placed on the application of experimental studies to clinical practice.
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