The short-term wind power prediction based on a multi-layer stacked model of BOCNN-BiGRU-SA

Abstract

Wind power generation is influenced by various meteorological factors, exhibiting significant volatility and unpredictability. This variability presents considerable challenges for accurate wind power forecasting. In this study, we propose an innovative method for short-term wind power prediction that integrates a Bayesian-optimized Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Units (BiGRU), and a Self-Attention Mechanism (SA) within a multi-layer architecture. Initially, we preprocess features using Pearson correlation analysis and input them into the CNN to investigate complex nonlinear spatial relationships among multiple feature variables and the current load. Subsequently, the BiGRU captures long-term dependencies from both forward and backward time sequences. Finally, we implement the Self-Attention Mechanism to weigh the features and generate the predicted wind power. We optimize the model's numerous hyperparameters utilizing a Bayesian algorithm. Through comparative ablation experiments with varying time segment lengths on wind farm datasets from four regions, our method significantly outperforms 11 models, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and surpasses several state-of-the-art (SOTA) prediction models, such as iTransformer, PatchTST, Non-stationary Transformers, TSMixer, and DLinear. The highest coefficient of determination (R²) achieved was 0.981, with the Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) decreasing by 11.22 % to 62.04 % compared to other models. The results demonstrate the predictive accuracy and generalization performance of our proposed model.