Explainable machine learning model for load-deformation correlation in long-span suspension bridges using XGBoost-SHAP

Abstract

The deformation of long-span suspension bridges in multiple loads is an important indictor to reflect their operation state. However, the correlation between multiple loads and structural deformation is difficult to quantify. Therefore, this study proposes an explainable machine learning model for the load-deformation correlation in long-span suspension bridges using eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Firstly, the structural health monitoring system for a suspension bridge was used to construct the dataset for the training and testing of XGBoost model. Herein, temperature, wind and vehicle loads were used as the input variables, while midspan deflections and expansion joint displacements were treated as outputs. Subsequently, the hyperparameters of XGBoost model were optimized using grid search and 5-fold cross-validation to ensure its prediction performance. Then, the prediction results were compared with other four machine learning methods (i.e., linear regression, artificial neural networks, gradient boosted decision trees and CatBoost). Finally, the correlation between different loads and displacement responses were explained by the SHAP method to identify the contribution of the loads on deformation. The results show that the XGBoost model has the highest prediction accuracy. Compared to vehicle and wind loads, temperature significantly affects the deformation of long-span suspension bridges during daily operation. The effects of temperature and wind on bridge deformation are independent, and there is no significant interaction between these two factors.