Extending multi-criteria coastal vulnerability assessment to low-lying inland areas: Examples from Estonia, eastern Baltic Sea

Abstract

The assessment of vulnerability to coastal hazards is a significant coastal management problem in regions with complicated shoreline, such as Estonia. This study implements the vulnerability assessment based on the multi-criteria decision analysis using fuzzy logic, analytical hierarchy process, and weighted linear combination (including input from experts) integrated with a geographical information system, to map the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) of the Estonian coasts at high resolution based on 16 parameters. The novelty of our approach is that we expand this assessment to a 2 km wide inland area that is an intrinsic but often overlooked part of coastal vulnerability estimates. The Estonian shores have mostly low and moderate vulnerability. Short segments with high vulnerability are impacted by severe waves and highly elevated water levels. The CVI also characterizes low-lying areas, such as large river valleys, reasonably well. Estimates of coastal vulnerability based on the three most important parameters according to experts’ judgements provide a reasonable approximation of the 16-parameter CVI in mostly homogeneous coastal regions, but less so elsewhere where its value is questioned. The results show that the application of the developed integrated decision support system, applied to a 2 km wide coastal strip, provides more information than single tools to assist coastal managers and stakeholders in planning, preparing for and responding to hazards.