Impact of oil and gold prices on Bitcoin price during Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza wars

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Resources Policy Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI:10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105405

Shabnam Zeinedini , Mohammad Sharif Karimi , Azad Khanzadi , Ali Falahati

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Abstract

Political tensions between countries and geopolitical events can create significant uncertainty in financial markets, impacting the prices of traditional assets such as oil and gold, as well as the emerging asset, Bitcoin. This study investigates the effect of gold and oil prices, including their price shocks, on Bitcoin price during two specific conflicts: the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Gaza conflict. To achieve this, we employed the Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) method and wavelet coherence analysis. The data used spans daily observations from January 2022 to April 2024.The findings indicate that gold prices have a positive impact on Bitcoin prices. Specifically, there is a predominantly short-term relationship between gold prices and Bitcoin prices throughout the entire period under review, with this influence gradually decreasing over the medium and long term. Conversely, the relationship between Brent oil prices and Bitcoin prices during the same period shows that crude oil prices generally have a negative and insignificant effect on Bitcoin prices in the short term.

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俄乌战争和以色列-加沙战争期间石油和黄金价格对比特币价格的影响

国家间的政治紧张局势和地缘政治事件会给金融市场带来巨大的不确定性，影响石油和黄金等传统资产以及新兴资产比特币的价格。本研究探讨了在俄乌战争和以色列-加沙冲突这两个特定冲突期间，黄金和石油价格（包括其价格冲击）对比特币价格的影响。为此，我们采用了向量自回归（VAR）方法和小波相干性分析。研究结果表明，黄金价格对比特币价格有积极影响。具体而言，在整个研究期间，黄金价格与比特币价格之间主要存在短期关系，这种影响在中长期内逐渐减弱。相反，同期布伦特油价与比特币价格之间的关系表明，原油价格在短期内对比特币价格的影响一般为负且不明显。

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来源期刊

Resources Policy ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

13.40

自引率

23.50%

发文量

602

审稿时长

69 days

期刊介绍： Resources Policy is an international journal focused on the economics and policy aspects of mineral and fossil fuel extraction, production, and utilization. It targets individuals in academia, government, and industry. The journal seeks original research submissions analyzing public policy, economics, social science, geography, and finance in the fields of mining, non-fuel minerals, energy minerals, fossil fuels, and metals. Mineral economics topics covered include mineral market analysis, price analysis, project evaluation, mining and sustainable development, mineral resource rents, resource curse, mineral wealth and corruption, mineral taxation and regulation, strategic minerals and their supply, and the impact of mineral development on local communities and indigenous populations. The journal specifically excludes papers with agriculture, forestry, or fisheries as their primary focus.