An innovative fractional grey system model and its application

Abstract

In order to expand the applicability of the conventional fractional grey model, an innovative fractional grey model is proposed by the introduction of the innovative fractional accumulation. Three efforts are made in this study. First, the innovative fractional accumulation and its inverse operation are designed. Based on the innovative form, the parameter estimation and discrete time response of the novel model are given. In addition, the moth flame optimization algorithm is used to determine optimal hyper parameters for the novel model, and the rolling mechanism is used to enhance the prediction performance. To comprehensively confirm the forecasting ability of the proposed model, it is applied in three kinds of data with inverted U-shaped, W-shaped and oscillating features. The experimental results show the novel model is superior to all competitors in terms of level accuracy. Therefore, the novel model is considered a promising method for enhancing the existing fractional grey model.