Quantitative risk assessment of road exposed to landslide: A novel framework combining numerical modeling and complex network theory

Abstract

The quantitative analysis of the landslide risk posed to road networks is a challenging task owing to the uncertainty involved both in the potential landslide hazard and the road value. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a novel framework to assess the road risk in quantitative terms. The landslide hazard is assessed using the depth-integrated method with consideration of the landslide size probability and initial conditions. The potential direct losses associated with road disruption are determined by exposure analysis in a geographical information system. The indirect losses of the road caused by the landslide were analyzed through complex network theory with consideration to regional socioeconomic development and the time required for road restoration. The proposed framework was used to assess the road risk posed by the Chunchangba landslide, Xiaojin County, China. The results show that the volume size probability of landslides in the Xiaojin area could be assessed using the function $P\left(V\right)=1/\left(1+3.583\times {10}^{-5}{V}^{2\times 0.391}\right)$. The depth-integrated method based hazards assessment results show the maximum impact area of the Chunchangba landslide reached 0.383 km², and the landslide has a high probability of damaging the lower road and forming a barrier lake. The losses associated with road disruption caused by the landslide were estimated. The maximum direct losses reached 293,100 USD, while indirect losses reached 423,800 USD, which has the same importance as direct losses. The risk curve reveals that the maximum probability of the road risk associated with the Chunchangba landslide is 0.0175 %, 0.0189 %, 0.0190 %, and 0.0191 % for the time interval of 5, 10, 20, and 50 years, respectively, with losses of 0.177 million USD/year. The regional disaster mitigation strategy is analyzed based on quantitative risk analysis. The results show that a new 2.7 km road on the mountain opposite the Chunchangba landslide can reduce indirect losses by approximately 300 times. The findings of this study contribute to sustainable development and landslide risk management in mountainous areas.