Understanding the zero-emission vehicle market spatial diffusion and its determinants from 2019 to 2022 using spatial econometric models

Abstract

Due to the rapid rise in the acceptance of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), much research has been conducted on the market evolution of alternative fuel technology. The research reported in this paper builds on prior studies by incorporating several new directions. Firstly, the spatial distribution of ZEV purchases in California is explored, then seven models (two nonspatial models and five spatially explicit models) are developed to predict regional ZEV sales. The predictions are based on fundamental and widely accessible characteristics such as infrastructure and demographic statistics. Next, a spatial econometric model known as the “spatial error model” is chosen to distribute ZEV sales from their original postal code (ZIP) level to the more often utilized US census tract level. This allows for carrying out a comprehensive analysis that includes studying the correlation of ZEV sales with local incentives and disadvantaged communities. Results reveal that ZEV sales in California increased significantly between 2019 and 2022, as spatial autocorrelation decreased. Vulnerable groups were less likely to have access to ZEVs, particularly during the initial stage of the ZEV market penetration in 2019. As expected, regions with considerable ZEV sales tended to also experience substantial purchase rebates and lower disadvantaged population, especially in 2019.