Assessment of regional Ecosystem Service Bundles coupling climate and land use changes

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Ecological Indicators Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI:10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112844

Hao Su , Mingxi Du , Qiuyu Liu , Xiang Kang , Li Zhao , Wei Zheng , Ziyan Liao

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Abstract

Escalating land use and cover change (LUCC) trends and intensifying impacts of climate change have brought about a global decline in ecosystem services (ESs). Historical and current ES Bundles (ESBs) are usually investigated as representative of ES capacities. However, whether the coupling impact of future climate and LUCCs on regional ESBs will be facilitated or inhibited is still unclear. Here, we evaluate and simulate the ESBs of Shaanxi Province, a typical region of Northwest China, from 2000 to 2050. We find that future land use patterns are characterized by the incremental amount of ecological land area and construction land, while arable land faces a significant decline. Moreover, we observe trade-offs in water-related ES pairs due to precipitation latitudinal zonation and topography, while other ESs exhibit synergistic relationships. As climate and land use changes intensify, the transformation probability among ecological and barren ESBs becomes progressively stronger. We recommend focusing on ES interactions and the comprehensive rehabilitation of regional ESs to improve the ESBs of ecologically fragile and urbanized areas.

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结合气候和土地利用变化评估区域生态系统服务包

土地利用和植被变化（LUCC）趋势的加剧以及气候变化影响的加剧已导致全球生态系统服务（ES）的减少。历史和当前的生态系统服务包（ESB）通常被视为生态系统服务能力的代表。然而，未来气候和 LUCCs 对区域 ESB 的耦合影响是促进还是抑制仍不清楚。在此，我们对中国西北典型地区陕西省 2000 年至 2050 年的 ESB 进行了评估和模拟。我们发现，未来土地利用模式的特点是生态用地面积和建设用地面积的增加，而耕地面积则面临大幅下降。此外，由于降水纬度带和地形的影响，我们观察到与水相关的生态系统对的权衡，而其他生态系统则表现出协同关系。随着气候和土地利用变化的加剧，生态和贫瘠 ESB 之间的转化概率会逐渐增大。我们建议关注生态系统之间的相互作用和区域生态系统的综合恢复，以改善生态脆弱地区和城市化地区的 ESB。

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来源期刊

Ecological Indicators 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

11.80

自引率

8.70%

发文量

1163

审稿时长

78 days

期刊介绍： The ultimate aim of Ecological Indicators is to integrate the monitoring and assessment of ecological and environmental indicators with management practices. The journal provides a forum for the discussion of the applied scientific development and review of traditional indicator approaches as well as for theoretical, modelling and quantitative applications such as index development. Research into the following areas will be published. • All aspects of ecological and environmental indicators and indices. • New indicators, and new approaches and methods for indicator development, testing and use. • Development and modelling of indices, e.g. application of indicator suites across multiple scales and resources. • Analysis and research of resource, system- and scale-specific indicators. • Methods for integration of social and other valuation metrics for the production of scientifically rigorous and politically-relevant assessments using indicator-based monitoring and assessment programs. • How research indicators can be transformed into direct application for management purposes. • Broader assessment objectives and methods, e.g. biodiversity, biological integrity, and sustainability, through the use of indicators. • Resource-specific indicators such as landscape, agroecosystems, forests, wetlands, etc.