Region-county characteristics of spatiotemporal dynamic evolution and influencing factors on agricultural net carbon sink in Hexi region of Gansu Province

Abstract

Reducing emissions and enhancing carbon sinks are essential for promoting regional agriculture in a green, low-carbon manner. However, most studies have overlooked spatial dependence and heterogeneity while incomprehensively exploring the influencing factors. Taking the counties in the Hexi region as our primary focus, the net carbon sequestration and its spatial–temporal dynamic evolution process from 2000 to 2020 were calculated and explored, and the factors influencing and their spatial effect decomposition were investigated.We observed that although each county has been in a state of carbon surplus during the research term, there is a spatial imbalance among them. The overall tendency of the net farming carbon sinks in the Hexi area showed fluctuations and an upward trend, with higher values observed in the eastern region than in the northwest. Ganzhou District and Shandan County play pivotal roles regarding the movement of the center of gravity concerning agricultural net carbon sequestrations. Cultivated land area per capita contributes to county-level agricultural net carbon sequestration within the Hexi region. Per capita agricultural GDP, agricultural industrial structure, and financial support for agriculture demonstrate remarkable active spillover effects. Conversely, urbanization exhibits a notable opposite spillover effect. Our results can provide a scientific basement for formulating differentiated policies for low-carbon agricultural development in the Hexi region.