Modeling urban expansion and its impacts on carbon storage through integrative scenario analysis for sustainable development in the Changchun-Jilin-Tumen region

IF 10.5 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Sustainable Cities and Society Pub Date : 2024-11-10 DOI:10.1016/j.scs.2024.105970

Tong Wu, Mingqi An, Lulu Zhang, Xiaozheng Wu, Mingyu Li

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Abstract

The Changchun-Jilin-Tumen (CJT) region in Northeast China is a key economic hub and a strategic gateway for China's integration into Northeast Asia, playing a crucial role in the Belt and Road Initiative. However, rapid urbanization in this region has precipitated substantial environmental challenges, particularly the degradation of carbon storage services (CSS) due to the expansion of impervious surface areas (ISA). This study employs multi-source remote sensing data, advanced geospatial analysis, and scenario-based decision-making technologies to evaluate the impacts of ISA expansion on CSS from 2000 to 2035 using the PLUS and InVEST models. The results reveal significant losses in CSS, with a net decrease of 8.10 × 10⁶ tons of carbon projected by 2022. Under the Natural Development scenario, these losses could escalate to 15.32 × 10⁶ tons by 2035. Conversely, the Ecological Protection and High-Quality Development scenarios suggest that strategic interventions could mitigate these losses, potentially leading to CSS gains of up to 3.42 × 10⁶ tons in the Ecological Protection scenario. This study highlights the pressing need to integrate ecological considerations into urban planning to balance development with environmental sustainability. The findings provide essential guidance for policymakers aiming to align urban growth with carbon neutrality targets, particularly in the context of global climate commitments and the increasing imperative for sustainable urban development.

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通过综合情景分析模拟长春-吉林-图们地区城市扩张及其对碳储存的影响，促进可持续发展

中国东北的长春-吉林-图们地区（CJT）是中国融入东北亚的重要经济枢纽和战略门户，在 "一带一路 "倡议中发挥着至关重要的作用。然而，该地区快速的城市化进程带来了巨大的环境挑战，尤其是不透水地表面积（ISA）的扩大导致碳储存服务（CSS）退化。本研究采用多源遥感数据、先进的地理空间分析和基于情景的决策技术，利用 PLUS 和 InVEST 模型评估了 2000 年至 2035 年不透水地表面积扩大对 CSS 的影响。结果显示，CSS 损失巨大，预计到 2022 年将净减少 8.10 × 10⁶ 吨碳。在 "自然发展 "情景下，到 2035 年，这些损失可能会增加到 15.32 × 10⁶吨。相反，生态保护和高质量发展情景表明，战略性干预措施可减轻这些损失，在生态保护情景下，有可能导致高达 3.42 × 10⁶ 吨的 CSS 增益。本研究强调了将生态因素纳入城市规划以平衡发展与环境可持续性的迫切需要。研究结果为旨在使城市发展与碳中和目标相一致的决策者提供了重要指导，尤其是在全球气候承诺和城市可持续发展日益迫切的背景下。

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来源期刊

Sustainable Cities and Society Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development

CiteScore

22.00

自引率

13.70%

发文量

810

审稿时长

27 days

期刊介绍： Sustainable Cities and Society (SCS) is an international journal that focuses on fundamental and applied research to promote environmentally sustainable and socially resilient cities. The journal welcomes cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary research in various areas, including: 1. Smart cities and resilient environments; 2. Alternative/clean energy sources, energy distribution, distributed energy generation, and energy demand reduction/management; 3. Monitoring and improving air quality in built environment and cities (e.g., healthy built environment and air quality management); 4. Energy efficient, low/zero carbon, and green buildings/communities; 5. Climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban environments; 6. Green infrastructure and BMPs; 7. Environmental Footprint accounting and management; 8. Urban agriculture and forestry; 9. ICT, smart grid and intelligent infrastructure; 10. Urban design/planning, regulations, legislation, certification, economics, and policy; 11. Social aspects, impacts and resiliency of cities; 12. Behavior monitoring, analysis and change within urban communities; 13. Health monitoring and improvement; 14. Nexus issues related to sustainable cities and societies; 15. Smart city governance; 16. Decision Support Systems for trade-off and uncertainty analysis for improved management of cities and society; 17. Big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence applications and case studies; 18. Critical infrastructure protection, including security, privacy, forensics, and reliability issues of cyber-physical systems. 19. Water footprint reduction and urban water distribution, harvesting, treatment, reuse and management; 20. Waste reduction and recycling; 21. Wastewater collection, treatment and recycling; 22. Smart, clean and healthy transportation systems and infrastructure;