Incorporating carbon capture and storage in decarbonizing China's cement sector

Abstract

China's target of carbon neutrality by 2060 has prompted the hard-to-abate cement sector to seriously consider the deep deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. However, the extent to which CCS should be integrated into the decarbonization pathways of China's cement sector, within a nexus of supply- and demand-side mitigation efforts, is not yet well understood. This study integrates supply- and demand-side transition dynamics to systematically assess the role of CCS in these decarbonization pathways. The results indicate that annual cement demand can be reduced from 1.4 gigatons (Gt) per year to 0.5 Gt per year by 2060 through a series of material efficiency improvements on the demand side. Furthermore, total carbon dioxide emissions from the cement sector could decrease from 0.2 to 0.8 Gt CO₂ per year to approximately 0.1 Gt CO₂ per year by 2060, with large-scale CCS deployments and other supply-side measures. The required CCS capacity would decrease from 901 to 152 million tons of clinker production per year, depending on the combined efforts from both demand- and supply-side strategies. Additionally, total economic costs are projected to be 9.7–12.8 trillion Chinese yuan (CNY), with mitigation costs ranging from 156 to 228 CNY per ton of CO₂ avoided, which is higher than current carbon prices in China. These findings clearly demonstrate that reliance on CCS can significantly reduce carbon emissions if mitigation potentials are fully capitalized from both the demand- and supply-side efforts.