Assessing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on influenza-like illness surveillance trends in the community during the 2023/2024 winter in England.

Abstract

Objectives: Influenza-like-illness (ILI) is a commonly used symptom categorization in seasonal disease surveillance focusing on influenza in community and clinical settings. However, SARS-CoV-2 often causes presentation with a similar symptom profile. We explore how SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals can influence surveillance trends for the World Health Organization, the United States Centre for Disease Control, and the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC) ILI criteria.

Methods: Harnessing the Winter COVID-19 Infection Study in England, a cohort study, the prevalence of different ILI definitions is modeled using multilevel regression and poststratification using age and spatial stratifications with temporal smoothing. Trends over time across stratifications were compared for SARS-CoV-2 positive and negative individuals to understand differences in ILI trends. Symptom presentation across positive and negative SARS-CoV-2 cases were compared.

Results: SARS-CoV-2 symptom profiles are shown to overlap with the ILI case definitions, particularly for "cough" and "fever", causing SARS-CoV-2 positive individuals to be frequently detected as ILI cases. The trend of SARS-CoV-2 positives is a substantial component of the ILI-modeled trend, driving an earlier perceived peak in prevalence. The ECDC symptom definition was most influenced by SARS-CoV-2 positive individuals.

Conclusions: Using a large community cohort we show how SARS-CoV-2 can impact ILI surveillance trends. SARS-CoV-2 makes up a substantial part of the community ILI burden and public health messaging should reflect this when discussing ILI. We show ILI is no longer a strong proxy for influenza activity alone.