Attributing the recent weakening of the South Asian subtropical westerlies

Abstract

Over the last four decades (1980–2020), the summer westerlies that prevail in South Asia along the monsoon trough region have weakened by about 25% based on multiple reanalysis datasets. Trends in a range of climate model simulations suggest that the weakening is driven by multiple anthropogenic forcings. Over the period, sea-level pressure has increased by 0.6–1.0 hPa over South Asia’s northwestern regions, induced by cooling due to aerosol emission and changes in land use and land cover, and has decreased over the Arabian Peninsula mainly due to warming by greenhouse gases. These changes in temperature and pressure act to weaken the regional pressure gradient, deflecting the subtropical westerlies from South Asia toward the Arabian Peninsula and weakening the winds in the monsoon trough and its adjacent region. The slowing down of winds appears to result in an anomalous moisture loading and increase in rainfall over the semi-arid northwestern South Asia. This weakening and its associated changes in regional climate are highly relevant to policymaking across South Asia.