The Trends in Prevalence of Blindness Caused by Refraction Disorders in China from 1990 to 2019 and Its Predictions: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Abstract

Purpose: To examine the burden of blindness caused by refraction disorders (BCRD) in China over the past 30 years by year, age, and sex, and to estimate future projections.

Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 database were used to analyze the number of cases and age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPRs) of BCRD in China from 1990 to 2019. We focused on changes over time using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). In addition, we performed the Nordpred analysis and the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model with integrated nested Laplace approximations to predict the BCRD burden from 2020 to 2034.

Results: The number of prevalent cases due to BCRD increased from 750,956.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 636,381.24-872,040.62) in 1990 to 1,145,881.76 (95% UI 931,966.43-1,342,338.18) in 2019. The ASPRs of BCRD showed a decreasing trend, with EAPCs of -0.58 (95% confidence interval [CI] -0.81-0.36). The older and female populations had a higher BCRD burden. The number of prevalent cases due to BCRD is projected to continue to increase from 1.33 million in 2020 to 1.86 million in 2034. The ASPR also showed an increasing trend over the next 15 years.

Conclusion: Over the past three decades, the prevalence of BCRD in China has improved in both sexes and will continue to increase in the next 15 years. This study highlights the importance of prevention of BCRD, especially for women and the elderly.