Development and application of an optimization model to evaluate future charging demand for long-haul electric vehicles in Ontario, Canada

Abstract

Establishing a charging network is critical to support vehicle electrification. Determining the ideal locations of charging stations can be challenging due to conflicting stakeholder constraints. This study aims to identify the optimal number of on-route charging locations that can support the projected maximum charging demand of long-haul electric vehicles (LHEVs) in the Canadian province of Ontario in the year 2040. A flow-based path-segment coverage model is proposed, which considers the time when each charging event at each candidate location is likely to occur. The impact of charging LHEVs on the grid is also evaluated. Based on projected 2040 LHEV adoption, results suggest that almost 90 % of the trips will be completed without the need to recharge. However, at least 82 fast charging station locations must be established throughout Ontario to support the remaining LHEV trips within the province. Moreover, almost 75 % of these trips are dependent primarily on 18 of these locations. In general, more than 46 GW of electricity per day is expected to be used when LHEVs have been adopted on a much larger scale in Ontario. Specifically, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is likely to experience approximately 4.86 GW of additional energy from LHEV charging activities during peak hours.