Global Solar Droughts Due To Supply-Demand Imbalance Exacerbated by Anthropogenic Climate Change

Abstract

Solar power will become the largest renewable energy source, contributing to global carbon neutrality. In addition to the well-recognized temporal intermittency of solar energy supply, the local energy demand to cope with extreme weathers can further stress the energy grid; both the supply and demand can be greatly influenced by future climate change. Here, we redefine solar drought events by considering supply demand imbalance in solar power. Observation and multi-model simulations reveal an anthropogenic exacerbation of global solar drought frequency in the past three decades. Moreover, compared to the pathway SSP2-4.5, the carbon neutrality pathway SSP1-2.6 can mitigate the increasing frequency and severity of solar droughts by 60% and 63% in the 2090s, respectively. Our study suggests a co-benefit of solar energy stability and security toward carbon neutrality, especially in developing nations where the local supply demand imbalance is a major issue.