Enhancing anticipatory governance to accelerate just energy transitions in Australia

Abstract

Accelerating just energy transitions requires governance under uncertain conditions created by climate change, deregulated energy markets, policy volatility, accelerating technological development, and changing customer roles and expectations. In such an uncertain environment, there is a high risk that decisions will have unforeseen consequences that harm some actors, creating unjust outcomes. Energy systems must collectively develop the anticipatory capacity to explore future possibilities and the implications of different decisions and pathways for and with all affected actors. This paper assesses the anticipatory capacity of the Australian energy system and identifies ways it could be enhanced to accelerate just energy transitions. It draws on a review of representative industry publications, workshops and interviews with industry stakeholders to evaluate the mix of anticipatory practices, scope of anticipatory work, and types of anticipatory governance that prevail in the Australian energy system. Current practice is dominated by forecasting and normative foresighting approaches that do not sufficiently explore or respond to the diversity of plausible futures. Technological and economic drivers dominate anticipatory work, while politics and values are neglected. Anticipatory governance focuses primarily on assessing or pursuing probable futures to inform strategic policy planning and reduce future risks. The narrow range of current anticipatory practices leaves the sector vulnerable to trend changes, unanticipated customer behaviour, and stranding of assets, all of which can work against just transition. Opportunities exist to enhance anticipatory capacity by adopting a more holistic and coordinated approach, increasing institutional support, developing horizon scanning services and integrating household imaginaries into anticipatory planning.